Lee AdlerPrimary dealers have offset their losses of last August through February in the recent rally, and they have reduced their net long exposure somewhat since their highest levels of a year ago.
Treasuries have sold off on the strong, surprise jobs report last week.
At the same time, there’s been an equally important, but less well known surprise. The Treasury has maintained an increased pace of T-bill paydowns in the first third of August, despite the re-imposed debt ceiling.
That’s a short term bullish factor for bonds
Subcscribers click here to download the complete report. Intro The Fed has bought mass quantities of Treasuries and MBS over the past dozen years, in…
I could just repost the same thing every time I update this report. The Fed continues to rig the stock market, and that rigging continues…
We’ve been following the story of the US Treasury paying down outstanding T-bills since late February. $680 billion of paydowns led to a big turnaround…
I finished my two dose vaccination regimen on June 14, and travel restrictions have lifted here in Europe since July 1. It’s been an interesting…
Note: Holiday Publication Schedule- I’ll be taking a brief break from publishing over the holiday week. I expect to resume publishing on July 6. Enjoy…
The balance between QE and Treasury supply will begin to shift in July. The underlying bid it has provided for stocks and Treasuries will begin…
In Part 1 of this report, I covered dealer positions, financing, and hedging. Dealers have mitigated a significant amount of risk by selling paper to…
For several months, I’ve been positing the idea that when the Treasury gets its cash level down to the legally required limit, the stock and…
Stock prices are currently right in the middle of the channel surrounding the liquidity line in the Compositite Liquidity Chart (viewable in subscriber version). By…
The balance between QE and Treasury supply will remain bullish through through xxxx (subscribers only). This should provide a boost for stocks. It should keep…