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Category: Fed, Central Bank and Banking Macro Liquidity

Analysis of the major forces of macro liquidity that drive markets.  

Money Rates Explode (No Surprise To Us) – Fed Must Print or Die

Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that once the debt ceiling was lifted the money markets would tighten dramatically. It’s happening. Here’s a rundown of the banking indicators, how they led up to this, what they’re telling us now, and my recommendation on what to do about it.

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Fed Balance Sheet Says The Fat Lady Has Sung

Lee Adler

Normalization is dead. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is all she wrote. A little bit of Fed POMO  won’t be enough to save the bond market, or stocks for that matter.

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Stock Market Still Historically Overbought Vs. Macro Liquidity

Lee Adler

In July we saw that the market was at a record overbought extreme versus liquidity.  I warned then that the bullishness we saw earlier this summer would be short lived. The market has corrected a bit. This report shows why that warning remains as applicable as ever.

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Danger! Speculative Debt Financing Has Driven The Rally

Lee Adler

The uptrend is particularly hot in loans to non bank financial institutions. That is composed largely of margin and repo loans. It’s clear that this borrowing has been a prime driver of the rallies in stocks and bonds. Live by leverage, die by leverage.

The data shows that the end is nigh.

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Fed Balance Sheet Bloodletting Ends Early But Now Treasury Will Suck

Lee Adler

The Fed has ended its balance sheet bloodletting. QT is kaput. No more “normalization.”  Now abnormal is the norm. But while the Fed will no longer suck, the US Treasury will. It’s no coincidence.

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CORRECTED – Danger! Market Liquidity Is About To Get Very Tight

Lee Adler

Yesterday, I posted this report with the intro from the June report. This version corrects that error. I apologize for the confusion!

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Stupidity, Greed, and Recklessness Drive Surging Loan Growth

Lee Adler
All charts viewable full size in the report.
All charts viewable full size in the report.

Loan growth is red hot. And it’s all based on speculation. But lenders act as if there’s no risk in all these new loans. Here’s the proof, and what it means.

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Wake Up! The Fed Is About to Play a Huge Joke on You

Lee Adler
View charts full size and full resolution in the report.

The joke is on Wall Street, investors, and yes, the Fed itself. But you will be prepared to take advantage because you read this report.

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Short Term Positive Liquidity, Long Term Scary

Lee Adler
View this and all charts full size, full resolution in the report.
View charts full size and full resolution in the report.

The Composite Liquidity Indicator remains near a record extreme, and that’s scary. Here’s what you need to know.

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Fed Balance Sheet Pressure Is Building But Camouflaged

Lee Adler

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank sharply over the past 4 weeks. So it’s no surprise that the stock market rally sputtered. But what’s going on out of view could make things much worse later this year.

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