Lee AdlerThe only thing keeping the market afloat is the willingness of big market participants to take on leverage to continue buying stocks and bonds. Increasingly…
The combination of market sentiment that has gone insane and the coming deluge of Treasury supply have rendered the financial markets increasingly fragile. At the…
Withholding tax collections were strong in June. The US economy shows no sign of slowing. More importantly, strong revenue growth has restrained the growth of…
Macro liquidity is drying up, according to the banking indicators and other monetary data that we follow. It’s not just one thing. It’s everything. Money…
Primary Dealers have reduced their fixed income portfolio hedging at the worst possible time. They are facing a deluge of supply in the months ahead,…
Repo data has been an important part of our liquidity analysis for many years. But the data had shortcomings. It showed only the banking system…
Withholding tax collections boomed in May. Consequently, the US Treasury is flush with cash. This means that T-bill paydowns are likely to hit my previous…
The Treasury supply issue is still favorable for most of June. The Treasury has already resumed paying down T-bills thanks to a huge cash balance…
Fed balance sheet and banking data, along with Treasury supply data had previously shown the prospect for some stock market weakness around the enormous expected…
Headline Corrected The storm warnings of extreme dealer leverage have dissipated over the past two months. For the moment, the skies are only partly cloudy…
“Sell in May and go away,” looks like a good idea again this year. The time has come. The time is now. Here’s why. Non-subscribers,…
Forget the modest increase in jobs reported by the BLS. Withholding tax collections were strong in April. The US Treasury is flush with more cash…