Lee AdlerThe conditions for a rally in bonds were there, only the will was missing. That finally showed up last week. Meanwhile, the dealers finally meaningfully…
Federal tax collections were once again extremely strong in April, including withholding taxes, and individual non-withheld income taxes in particular. In fact there were strong…
Ending QE has created the perfect storm in the markets. Our warnings about the bond market going to hell and leading the stock market have…
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) told us in early February that it estimated that the US Treasury would pay down $358 billion in T-bills…
I began to warn in December 2021 that the process of the CLI flattening was beginning, and that that would lead to bad things happening.…
After a disastrous couple of months in the bond market, conditions are now set up for x xxxxxx there. Treasury bill paydowns will be enormous…
Federal tax collections were exceptionally strong for the full month in March, including withholding taxes in particular. The jobs gains reported by the BLS, were,…
This report shows the imbalance of Fed liquidity driven demand and the coming short term liquidity boost from seasonal Treasury paydowns. However, I’ve added something…
It’s the most bullishful time of the year. The annual corporate tax windfall just hit the US Treasury cash account this week. Individual annual and…
The last time we looked at the Composite Liquidity Indicator (CLI), 4 months ago, I warned that the process of flattening the indicator was beginning,…
Federal tax collections looked strong for the full month in February. Don’t be fooled. It was an illusion due to a calendar effect and inflation.…
I’ve been doom scrolling my newsfeeds for the past few days, not getting much work done. What a catastrophe. War in Europe, just 120 miles…