Lee AdlerPrimary dealers have offset their losses of last August through February in the recent rally, and they have reduced their net long exposure somewhat since their highest levels of a year ago.
Treasuries have sold off on the strong, surprise jobs report last week.
At the same time, there’s been an equally important, but less well known surprise. The Treasury has maintained an increased pace of T-bill paydowns in the first third of August, despite the re-imposed debt ceiling.
That’s a short term bullish factor for bonds
Wall Street wiseguys and the mouthpieces of the Mob @CNBC and @WSJ don’t know it yet, but the US economy went over a cliff in the last two weeks. They don’t know because they’re not tracking the real time Federal tax collection data like we are. And that data shows us that’s what happened.
Subcscribers click here to download the complete report. Intro The Fed has bought mass quantities of Treasuries and MBS over the past dozen years, in…
They’ve been threatening to do it for two years, and finally pulled the trigger. The Fed’s captured media barely gave it lip service, with a…
I could just repost the same thing every time I update this report. The Fed continues to rig the stock market, and that rigging continues…
We’ve been following the story of the US Treasury paying down outstanding T-bills since late February. $680 billion of paydowns led to a big turnaround…
I finished my two dose vaccination regimen on June 14, and travel restrictions have lifted here in Europe since July 1. It’s been an interesting…
I wanted to take a short break from my short vacation to get this post out. I’ll take a few more days hiatus and get…
Note: Holiday Publication Schedule- I’ll be taking a brief break from publishing over the holiday week. I expect to resume publishing on July 6. Enjoy…
The balance between QE and Treasury supply will begin to shift in July. The underlying bid it has provided for stocks and Treasuries will begin…
In Part 1 of this report, I covered dealer positions, financing, and hedging. Dealers have mitigated a significant amount of risk by selling paper to…