The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) is a gang of Primary Dealers and other big investment firms that tells the US Treasury once each quarter how much paper it will need to issue, and when. It provides an estimate of issuance by date and type for the current quarter and the next one. It does so every February, May, August, and November, near the beginning of the month.
The TBAC just issued its reports for the current quarter last week. The report confirms what we expect, a massive supply increase coming. We know exactly when it’s coming, and have a pretty good idea of when it should start to cause problems for the stock and bond markets. With that knowledge, we can now prepare for action to take advantage.
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