The balance between QE and Treasury supply has gotten even more bullish and will remain so until xxxx (subscribers only). This should provide a boost for stocks. It should keep the Treasury selloff at bay until xxxx (subscribers only).
I have previously made the case for the Treasury to run out of money in xxxx (subscribers). If that estimate is correct, the outlook will turn negative in xxxx (subscribers). But for now, bullish liquidity forces remain in place, outside of the usual month end supply pressure.
As delayed tax receipts come in, in May, the Treasury will have even more cash for paydowns. The rest of May into mid June could be very bullish as a result. A selling opportunity for both stocks and bonds will arise as the Treasury approaches the point where its cash hoard is used up.
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