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Gold There are signs of cycles getting in gear to the upside, but no sign of thrust yet. Initial upside projections point to xxxx – xxxx (in subscriber version). Gold needs to clear xxxx to break the 13 week cycle MA and signal at least a little more upside in the short run.
On the very long term monthly chart, gold remains above a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx xxxxx range (in subscriber version).
HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx. If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx. On the long term weekly chart HUI has broken its 6 month cycle MA. Here’s what that implies for the outlook (in subscriber version)..
On the ultra long term monthly chart, HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. With HUI ending December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target is xxxx–xxxx in the first quarter of 2022. It faces major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.
Chart Picks – The numbers surged over the past week but 6 month cycles remained deeply negative. That needs to show much more improvement for us to have confidence that there will be an extended rally. But this is a start. So I’m continuing to nibble.
I’ve tweaked the method to use screens from each day of the past week instead of just the last day of the weekly period. Charts that show up more than once, with buy signals yesterday are preferred. From that list I pick those with structures I like. This week I’m adding one to the list as shown below. I’m staying with the existing picks, and allowing breathing room with no, or very loose stops. Currently open picks show an average gain of 9.4% on an average holding period of 3 weeks.
Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of 46 calendar days.
See table and charts (subscriber version).
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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.
