Short term cycles have extended through expected peaks, thanks to the extraordinary circumstances. Projections on the 13/17 week and 9/12 month cycles have risen and now point to xxxx to xxxx (subscriber version) up from 2000 last week. We are in the window for highs to form on those cycles. However, given the extraordinary circumstances, I would not assume an end to the spike until we see technical evidence of it, such as trendline breaks and downturns in momentum indicators.
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The high base breakout on long term charts that we’ve been looking forward to is essentially complete, and confirmed by a breakout in long term momentum. The initial conventional measured move target is xxxx (subscriber version).
A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.
The correction has ended in the mining stocks. Short term cycles rejoined the two longer cycles on the plus side. The 13 week and 6 month cycles are near maximum strength. In bull markets this is not a sign of an overextended trend. In past bull phases such conditions have lasted for weeks at times. Normally, negative divergences in these numbers would precede price peak in the sector.
Over the week ended March 7, 46 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 30 had at least one sell signal, which means that a few swung both ways. It’s like that.
These are for swings of 3-5 weeks. For the prior two weeks there were a plurality of sell signals. The corrective phase ended with a bang last week.
I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal from last Tuesday through the week, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 34, which is extraordinary. I inspected those charts looking for good entry setups for picks to add to the list this week.
Most had risen to, or just below major resistance. While the trends are all bullish, these are not low risk short term entry points. Then the question was whether to take a shot on a laggard or two. While these are extraordinary circumstances, my answer there was, again, to stick with the discipline. So I’m adding no new picks this week.
Over the past week there were 6 open selections. All had gains. The average gain was 21% with an average holding period of 31 calendar days. That’s up from 8.7% and average holding period of 24 calendar days the week before.
I’ve adjusted stops on all open picks. Table and charts below (subscriber version).
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See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).
The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.
