Short term and intermediate cycles are in gear to the downside, but the 9-12 month cycle remains due for one more upleg to a new high of xxxx by xxxx xxxx (subscriber version).
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The high base breakout on long term charts that we’ve been looking forward to is essentially complete, and confirmed by a breakout in long term momentum. The initial conventional measured move target is xxxx (subscriber version).
A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.
In the miners, over the week ended March 18, 14 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 42 had at least one sell signal, which means that some whipsawed. These are for swings of 3-5 weeks.
This was the second consecutive week with a majority of sell signals, indicating that the corrective phase that we expected is still under way.
I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal between Monday and Thursday, for repeat buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There were 3. Call me crazy, but I liked all 3 charts enough to put them on the list. They are shown on the table below (subscriber version)..
Over the past week, we started with 2 open selections. They hit their trailing stops and were closed as of that price. The average gain was 13% with an average holding period of 38 calendar days. Over the past 3 months including these two, there were 12 picks. 10 were closed with a theoretical profit. Overall, the average profit of the 12 picks was 8.9% with an average holding period of 27 calendar days.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could annualize that? But we can’t. Our picks are buy side only, and the market often goes months without giving any buys. So it’s difficult to produce consistent profits.
So this week we start anew with 3 picks. No stop prices in the first week. We pays our money and takes our chances, at least at the outset. Table and charts below (subscriber version).
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See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).
The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.
