Big T-bill paydowns are coming in the second half of April. That will continue to support a “rally that fools the majority.”
But it doesn’t guarantee it. We’ll let the market do the talking, based on what it does with these key support and resistance levels (subscriber version).
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Cycles – There’s no thrust in either direction. Cycles are likely to remain in juxtaposition for the next couple of months. It’s a recipe for a xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx (subscriber version).
That doesn’t mean that there’s nothing to do. Some stocks will make swing moves, whether up or down. The swing trade chart pick screens should be able to pick some of them out.
Third Rail Chart – The trendline to watch starts the week at xxxx (subscriber version) and ends at xxxx. A daily close below that line would invalidate wider uptrend hypothesis. A daily close below xxxx would be needed to signal a new short term downtrend.
If the uptrend channel holds, look for resistance around xxxx first. If that’s cleared, the next likely target would be resistance around xxxx.
Long Term Weekly– The February-March lows appear to have been a two year cycle low. That only tells us that an up phase is due. It does not tell us the absolute direction of that up phase. That depends on the longer cycles.
The 3-4 year cycle is in a top phase, but it still has an unmet projection of xxxx (subscriber version) that can’t be ruled out until the top breaks down. That would require a weekly close below xxxx.
A 7 year cycle top is due this year in a projection range of xxxx– xxxx. It’s not yet possible to say whether the top is complete or a new high is still on the docket.
Monthly Chart – The mid March rebound has formed another equal width uptrend channel. Its lower line is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April. Resistance is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April.
Cycle Screening Measures – These indicators were mixed and neutral in the short run, xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx (subscriber version) for the intermediate term. They still support the liquidity analysis based thesis of a xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx (subscriber version) that could last into mid May.
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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
