As of Monday, September 19, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals over the past two trading days, and 64 with second or third sell signals. On Monday on a standalone basis there were 21 buys and 19 sells. Meh. But I found two charts that I liked as shorts.
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This is not a failsafe market indicator. Recall that the September 9 scan was 99 to nothing on the buy side. That turned out to be completely wrong for the week. Fortunately, when I eyeballed the charts for buys to add to the list last week, I didn’t like anything, and elected to stand pat. On the other hand, there were some great shorts that the scan didn’t pick up. These moves are just too short in duration for this system to pick up. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing trades, so the fewer picks in rangebound markets the better. Non-subscribers click here for access.
completely wrong for the week. Fortunately, when I eyeballed the charts for buys to add to the list last week, I didn’t like anything, and elected to stand pat. On the other hand, there were some great shorts that the scan didn’t pick up. These moves are just too short in duration for this system to pick up. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing trades, so the fewer picks in rangebound markets the better. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The scoreboard for September so far shows an average gain of 3.4%, on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. All of the 16 picks closed out so far in September were shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
After reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, once again, I did not see any charts I liked on the buy side. The intermediate trend setups were not conducive to significant upside. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Unlike the prior week, this time there were also some sell side charts to review. There were a few that looked borderline OK to short, but the setups looked a couple of weeks early for that. They are more likely to go sideways or pop a little first. However, as I reached the end of the alphabetical list, I could no longer restrain my bearish proclivities, so I will add xxx and xxx to the list as shorts as of the opening price today, September 20. I am mentally limiting these to a total of not more than 15% of my trading capital to allow for building up to the normal 12-15 open trades at max. Non-subscribers click here for access.
9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.
8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.
7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.
June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.
6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.
March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.
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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.
Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.
Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.
The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.
