Or maybe it is. The Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system have begun to flash warning signs that the rally is on its last legs. xxxxxxxxxx, Treasury supply conditions for the next 6 weeks will be favorable for xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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Tax revenues in March and April create a cash bulge for the US Treasury. It normally uses that cash to pay down a couple hundred billion in T-bills in April and May. They plan to do so again this season. The money from paying off those T-bills will flow into investor accounts. Some of that money will be used to buy stocks and bonds. That should cause xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx into mid to late May.
But we shouldn’t ignore the signs that this will be the xxxx xxxx xxxxx for this stage of the bull run. A bond market rally should also be another opportunity to xxxxx fixed income.
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