Author: Lee Adler

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On Friday on a standalone basis there were 13 buys and 9 sells. This is still nothing to get excited about for either side. Without a more lopsided advantage on both the multiple signal look, and the last day look, I want to tread lightly. This decline is already mature, and I’m concerned about a short covering spike, despite the lack of evidence. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visually reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, I was underwhelmed on both sides. So I’ll stand pat and ride with what remains on the list after two picks hit their trailing stops last week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The four remaining picks have gained an average of 4.7% on an average holding period of 7 calendar days as of today (Monday). The normal maximum number of picks is 12, so with 4 currently open, that implies just a 25% capital commitment with the rest assumed to be cash. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/26/22 Would be nice to have had more shorts out, but with a schedule of only once a week, sometimes the swing trade turn gets missed, particularly when they happen on a V reversal. These are common at lows but rare at highs. Rare doesn’t mean never, however, and we got one two weeks ago. Non-subscribers click here for access.

But there’s something to be said for spending a few minutes a week on trading, rather than hours in front of a screen. Life must be lived! Non-subscribers click here for access.

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader October 2, 2022

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now

For example, it could be a stake in the heart depending on whether xxxx holds or breaks.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The market is extremely weak and in some respects the technical are similar to when the Fed stepped in to save the market in March 2020. But stock prices didn’t begin to rally until 10 days after the Fed first intervened with massive cash injections. So we probably shouldn’t think about a bottom here until the Fed reverses course and pumps in enough cash to make a difference. Non subscribers click here to access.

Unlike in 2020 however, this would be a policy 180. Back then, the Fed was already in a program of “enhancing” the market with QE. It just massively expanded it. I cover these issues in the Money Trends reports. Non subscribers click here to access.

In view of that context, any readings of extreme technical weakness might be the precursor to a xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx rally, but there’s no reason to be xxxxxx xxxx stocks yet. On the other hand, it’s a little late in this move to be xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx on a swing trade basis. For nimble scalpers, I’d call it a “maybe.” Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles- By one count, the 10-12 month cycle could be at a low, with a potential to turn up for a few months. However, a breakdown below xxxx would suggest that this cycle is early in a down phase, projected to last until at least next xxxx. That would imply the likelihood of much lower prices over the next xxx months. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a tentative 6 month cycle projection of xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

A 4 week cycle low is due xxxx xxxx, at just xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If the market bounces early in the week, that scenario is in play. But if the 6-7 week variant is dominant, this week will get xxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxx. That cycle has a projection of xxxx, with the expected low in the last xxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle remains in a xxxxxxxxx window, with a projected low of xxxx-xxxx. With liquidity scarce, there’s potential for a vicious bounce driven by short covering at any time. But the question is whether it will come from this xxxx-xx area, or equally likely xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail To break the 2 steepest downtrend channels the SPX would need to end this week above xxxx. The top line of the third channel will be at xxxx on Friday. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a support convergence around xxxx at midweek. That’s a likely short term pivot area. If it breaks instead, the next target would be xxxx. And if that broke, we’d be looking for xxxx as the next likely target. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The support convergence at xxxx now looks critical. The next target would be xxxx-xxxx if that breaks. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – SPX has broken long term trend support and is now targeting xxxx-xxxx either by the end of October. The xxxx range should now be resistance. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – Cycle screening measures plunged to extremes but suggest the possibility of xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx ahead for at least several more weeks. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.

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Gold Reason to Hope No Reason for Optimism

Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader September 30, 2022

Gold rebounded after hitting trend support. There’s regularly been an 8 week cycle pattern over the past year, and this fits that bill. The 13 week cycle projection has been reached. But the burden of proof is on the bullish case until gold clears xxxx. Otherwise the downtrend will remain in force, and we can expect lower lows.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk.

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Swing Trade Screens – Getting Shorter, Life Must be Lived!

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader September 27, 2022

As of the week ended Monday, September 26 closing prices, there was only 1 chart with second or third buy signals over the past two trading days, and 53 with second or third sell signals. That compares with 64 multiple sells at the end of the week before. For the week, the bears still had it, but that can turn on a dime. On Monday on a standalone basis there were 9 buys and 9 sells. Nothing to get excited about for either side.

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Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader September 26, 2022

The scoreboard for September so far, excluding the two picks still open (+10.5% avg.), shows an average gain of 3.4%, on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. All of the 16 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visually reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, I found the one buy signal uninteresting. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the sell side, there were quite a few that appeared to have a little running room to the downside, but too little before reaching support. I skipped over those. Ultimately there were 4 that I liked enough to add to the list on the short side. They were xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, and xxxx. Do we notice a theme there? The charts are posted below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the 15% exposure that I theoretically committed on the existing picks, adding these 4 would bring me to a commitment of about 45% of my trading capital, with the other 55% in cash. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The two existing picks have gained an average of 10.5% on an average holding period of 8 calendar days as of today. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Would be nice to have had more shorts out, but with a schedule of only once a week, sometimes the swing trade turn gets missed, particularly when they happen on a V reversal. These are common at lows but rare at highs. Rare doesn’t mean never, however, and we got one two weeks ago. Non-subscribers click here for access.

But there’s something to be said for spending a few minutes a week on trading, rather than hours in front of a screen. Life must be lived! Non-subscribers click here for access.

For this week, I’m adding 4 picks on the short side as of Tuesday’s opening print. I have added trailing stops to the two existing picks to take them out automatically if the stops get hit. The 4 new picks will have no stops for the first week to give them some breathing room. Diversification will provide some cushion if one of them goes haywire against us. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Stock Market in Crash Mode

The market is in crash mode. That doesn’t guarantee a crash. It merely suggests that conditions are as favorable as they get for one to occur. The crash window will remain open through the xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles- The 4 week cycle projection of xxxx suggests as much. The 6-7 week cycle has joined the down phase, but it’s too early for a projection on that. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle is in a bottoming window, and its projection has been hit. I’d expect xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx from that. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail The market is heading for support indicated around xxxx and xxxx. If those levels give way, the target could be major trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The support convergence at xxxx now looks critical. The next target would be xxxx if that breaks. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – SPX has broken long term trend support and is now targeting xxxx xxxx either by the end of this month or October. The xxxx range should now be resistance. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – Cycle screening measures plunged to extremes but suggest the possibility of additional severe weakness ahead until xxxx xxxxx .Non subscribers click here to access.

Lee Adler 1 - Liquidity Trader- Money Trends September 26, 2022

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.

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Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late

The dealers have significantly hedged their bond longs since April, but the price damage that we expected, in both bonds, stocks, and everything else, was an inevitable result of that. To deleverage means to liquidate existing positions. Liquidate means sell. The dealers and their biggest customers have been doing just that. To build up hedges, they’ve also been selling futures, adding to the pressure.

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But unfortunately, they reduced hedges during the recent bond market selloff. The dealers are the Wrong Way Marshalls of the bond market.

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This market selling pressure comes as no surprise to us. The forces of this spiral have been building for the past two years, first as Treasury supply overwhelmed the market beginning in August 2020, and then subsequently, as the Fed moved to tighten policy. The dealers have never been properly positioned for this. It’s the mirror image of their massively wrong positioning in 2007 that triggered the 2008 crash. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The problem now is that their hedging may not be enough. The spiral of falling prices, collateral calls, and more liquidation has now taken on a life of its own. The technical analysis of the Treasury market says there’s more of that to come, with conventional price projections pointing to the xxx% range on the 10 year yield as the next target for the bond market. Needless to say, that should also be catastrophic for US stocks. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

From past reports:

7/27/22 The bottom line is this. Don’t be fooled by what the media is touting as a massive rally in bonds. Yes, it looks big, and it probably has a little further to go over the next couple of weeks. But in the big picture, it’s nothing. And it’s likely to stay that way. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Meanwhile, the dealers have mitigated some of their risk, but they and their big bank parents remain at great risk if bond prices start declining again. That should happen as liquidity begins to tighten again in the second half of August. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The bond rally should have a bit further to go, but I’d be a seller on the first technical signs that the trend is turning. And when bond yields start to rise again, and bond prices start falling again, I’d expect stocks to suffer from the same adverse liquidity factors that would be pulling the bond market down. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

LATE BULLETIN! HOLY COW, as I was proofreading this report, I just checked the Treasury issuance schedule for this week, and the Treasury will issue $40 billion in new T-bills on Monday. That will upset the apple cart, but at this point I won’t rewrite this entire report. Let’s just accelerate the time frame for when I expect the market to begin experiencing tighter liquidity from mid-month, to the beginning of August. We need to be on the lookout for signs of reversal in the bond rally sooner that I originally thought. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

But at least this news confirms my earlier forecast that the T-bill paydowns would end in July, making for tighter liquidity in conjunction with the Fed’s QT program. And lest we forget, they plan to double the amount of system withdrawals in that program beginning in September. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

6/13/22 Primary dealers have finally taken aggressive action to mitigate the losses in their bond portfolios. But it is too late. The damage is done, and the pressure will only get worse as the Fed pulls money out of the banking system and forces the Treasury to borrow even more money to pay off the Fed. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

In everything we look at in the Primary Dealer positions and related data we see only stress and more stress. This is unfolding exactly as we expected. There are no secrets here. We knew all this was coming simply by watching the data and Fed policy as we have month in and month out. It only proves again and again, Rule Number One. Don’t fight the Fed. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Shockingly, the Dealers seem not to have followed the Rule, and now they’re screwed, and so is the world of investors. For those who can’t sell short, there are no good options. No pun intended. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

5/14/22 That all means that a double whammy will hit the market in mid June, at a time when Primary Dealers and the banking system are already weakened by huge losses in their bond portfolios. Some of these highly leveraged dealers will be forced by their lenders or their parent bank holding companies to liquidate anything that they can to pay back the margin and repo loans that funded the purchases of all this paper. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

There are no doubt other big leveraged players out there with massive losses that will be forced to liquidate by margin calls. The selling will not be limited to the bond market. It will hit stocks too, and anything else that isn’t tied down. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

If this analysis is correct, the weakness that we have seen in the market over the past couple of months will be seen as but an opening act. Conditions will worsen. Stocks and bonds will decline even faster this summer. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Consequently, the strategic and tactical outlook remains the same. Sell all rallies. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

4/11/22 So what would I do with this information? The same thing I’ve been doing for the past 20 months. They’re gifts to us on the way to Dante’s Inferno. If I owned bonds, I would sell them. If I owned stocks, I would sell them. And I would keep looking for stocks to short on the rallies. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

I know. Cash is trash when inflation is high and interest rates are negative to inflation, but it’s less trashy than assets that are actively losing value. The strategy that I think makes the most sense in such an environment is to trade stocks from the short side. I publish the weekly swing trade chart picks for those who are looking for ideas along those lines. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/technical-market-timing/ ….Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The problem after that is that the Primary Dealers and the biggest banks who own them have enormous hidden losses that aren’t showing up yet on bank earnings statements or balance sheets. As market conditions tighten in the second half of this year and margin calls beget losses, which beget more margin calls, those hidden losses will start to show up. Banks will be forced to liquidate some of their assets and will be forced to report some of those losses. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

2/20/22The bottom line is that the financial market is moving toward a crisis. Fast. It will continue to do so as the Fed cuts QE first to zero. It will do so even more as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet by allowing maturing paper to be paid off rather than rolled over. If they do that, the pressure on on Primary Dealers will only get worse. They have not established the net short positions needed to manage it. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

On average, their positioning is not good for a decline in bond prices (rise in yields.) Some Primary Dealers are probably well positioned. That means that some, if not most, are not. Those who are not well positioned are almost certainly already in trouble. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

This won’t end well.Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

I’ve opined to stay away from the bond market for the past 18 months. Nothing has changed. Bond rallies are selling opportunities. The pressure on the bond market has infected the stock market, and will continue to do so. I continue to look for swing trade short selling opportunities in the Technical Trader reports. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

1/25/22But now the Fed is getting out of the buying business. No more backstopping the dealers with constant massive funding. Meanwhile, the dealers are still REQUIRED, by virtue of their status as Primary Dealers, to still buy Treasuries. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

How exactly will they be able to do that without steadily being cashed out by the Fed to the tune of a hundred and some billion per month, month in and month out? Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The Fed will probably tell us tomorrow that it’s going to zero purchases after March. The dealers must keep buying. There are only two ways they can fulfill that responsibility. They’ll either have to sell stuff first. Stuff, as in other Treasuries, other fixed income instruments, OR, drum roll please…… Stocks! Or they will need to borrow more money, that is, increase their leverage even more. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader September 23, 2022

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Small Comfort for Gold Holders

In the short run, trend support for gold is suggested at 1650, 1635 and 1600. But that’s small comfort. Both the 13 week cycle projection and the 9-12 month cycle projection point significantly lower. Gold threatens a breakdown from major long term support that would imply even lower prices than current intermediate term cycle projections.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk.

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Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader September 20, 2022

As of Monday, September 19, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals over the past two trading days, and 64 with second or third sell signals. On Monday on a standalone basis there were 21 buys and 19 sells. Meh. But I found two charts that I liked as shorts.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This is not a failsafe market indicator. Recall that the September 9 scan was 99 to nothing on the buy side. That turned out to be completely wrong for the week. Fortunately, when I eyeballed the charts for buys to add to the list last week, I didn’t like anything, and elected to stand pat. On the other hand, there were some great shorts that the scan didn’t pick up. These moves are just too short in duration for this system to pick up. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing trades, so the fewer picks in rangebound markets the better. Non-subscribers click here for access.

completely wrong for the week. Fortunately, when I eyeballed the charts for buys to add to the list last week, I didn’t like anything, and elected to stand pat. On the other hand, there were some great shorts that the scan didn’t pick up. These moves are just too short in duration for this system to pick up. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing trades, so the fewer picks in rangebound markets the better. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The scoreboard for September so far shows an average gain of 3.4%, on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. All of the 16 picks closed out so far in September were shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, once again, I did not see any charts I liked on the buy side. The intermediate trend setups were not conducive to significant upside. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Unlike the prior week, this time there were also some sell side charts to review. There were a few that looked borderline OK to short, but the setups looked a couple of weeks early for that. They are more likely to go sideways or pop a little first. However, as I reached the end of the alphabetical list, I could no longer restrain my bearish proclivities, so I will add xxx and xxx to the list as shorts as of the opening price today, September 20. I am mentally limiting these to a total of not more than 15% of my trading capital to allow for building up to the normal 12-15 open trades at max. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.

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What a Whipsaw! Here’s How Big The Move Will Be – UPDATE

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader September 19, 2022

The cycle screening data has now been updated.

When a technical signal is rendered and then suddenly reverses, we call that a whipsaw. Whipsaw signals are often signs of powerful moves ahead. Last week we had a helluva whipsaw of the post Labor Day short term buy signal for the market.

That massive turn has put the market in position for a big decline. It doesn’t guarantee it, but it does set up the conditions for one.

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