Author: Lee Adler

Wall Street is largely theater, so we need to be able to suspend disbelief if we want to invest and trade successfully.

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Cycles- All cycles remain in gear to the upside, but cycle highs are due xxxxxxx xxxxxxx in all cycles up to 13 weeks duration. Cycle projections of xxxx-xx on the 13 week and 6 month cycles, and xxxx on the 4 week cycles have yet to be hit, so an xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxx is still possible. But it should be the xxxx xxxxxx for xxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 10-12 month cycle high isn’t due until xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. So we could be in for a lot of xxxxxxxx xxx and xxxx for the next xx xxx months. Unless the market xx xx xxx this week, from a technical perspective the bias should be to the xxxxx for xxxxx months. That’s xxxxxxx xxx the liquidity backdrop. Non subscribers click here to access.

What to do! Non subscribers click here to access.

Hold on to your hats and be nimble.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  The market now faces trend resistance at xxxx. If they clear that, the next trend resistance channel line is indicated around xxxx early in the week, headed for xxxx later in the week. Non subscribers click here to access.

Closing above xxxx would result in a conventional measured move target of xxxx. A daily close below xxxx would be needed to suggest even the possibility of a short term downside reversal. Non subscribers click here to access.

 Long Term Weekly Chart –  The 10-12 month cycle bottom looks xxxx. The market is now entering an area of what should be massive resistance from xxxx to xxxx. 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators have not xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  Clearing xxxx would make room for a move to xxxx-xxxx. Failing to clear xxxx would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The aggregate indicator has formed a negative divergence xxx the strength of the numbers is very xxxx. The last time the indicator made a pattern like this was from xxxxx xxxx- xxxx xxxx. I need not remind you what happened during that period. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Cycles- The bottoming process in the longer intermediate cycles xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx  as short term cycles got in gear to the upside last week. This doesn’t mean that we’re in for a long and winding xxxx xxxxxxxx phase.

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A 4 week cycle high is due xxxx xx to xxxxxx xx, with the projection xxxxxxxxx xxx. However, the 6-8 week and 13 week cycles point to a range of 4xxx-xxxx, with a high due as late as xxxxxx xx. So the market still has a bit xxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxxxx over the next week. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Beyond that, the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles have xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx. A 6 month cycle high is due xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxxxxx, with an initial projection of xxxx. That’s probably not the last word on that. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – If they clear xxxx, the initial targets would be xxxx, and then xxxx. Only if they break those would xxxx be likely as the next target. If they pull back, support is at xxxxx and xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – This chart now suggests but doesn’t confirm a 10-12 month cycle xxxxxxx. Longer term cycle indicators remain bearish. Resistance is suggested around xxxx, and if cleared, xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – If they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal but is still above the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing any month below that line would be another long term bearish signal.

Cycle Screening Measures – The numbers were strongly positive all week, even Friday, after the pullback. Last week I said that the intermediate pattern has bipolar disorder. With persistently positive numbers for a month now, I’d call it manic. But until the numbers go negative for more than a few days, then the mania will remain in force. .Non subscribers click here to access.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 13 charts with multiple buy signals, and 35 with more than one sell signal. That’s surprising considering Friday’s strength, but the field of buy signals from earlier in the week was tiny.

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These numbers remain very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. The low output continues to reflect a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way. It’s a meatgrinder market. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 47 buy signals and 21 sell signals. Again, these are relatively low numbers. Just as the sell side edge was too small to get excited about last week, the same is true of the buy side edge this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Regardless, my task is to unearth trading opportunities, so I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. The buy signals all looked like rangebound setups that were only good for a scalp at best. I said, “Skip it.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

The sell side was no better. Most of the charts were too ambiguous to do anything. They still look a few weeks away from good short side setups. So we sit tight this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.