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Author: Lee Adler

Benefit of the Doubt to the Upside Until Proven Otherwise

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles There’s no sign of thrust in the 10-12 month cycle up phase. But there’s also no obvious resistance on the chart that would stop the market from drifting higher.

The 6 month cycle is now mid up phase. There’s no projection yet.

The 13 week cycle up phase is maturing. The projection now points to a range of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version) . Above support at xxxxx the up phase stays in progress. A breakdown through that level would signal a down phase.

On the third rail chart SPX faces a resistance trendline cluster in the xxxx-xxxxx (subscriber version)  range. Clearing that would signal acceleration within the short term channel. If they don’t clear, they could still stay within the short term channel. The lower limit starts the week at xxxxx and rises at 12.2 points per day (PPD). That would bring trend support to xxxxx at the end of the week.

On the upside, if they clear xxxxx, the immediate target would then be xxxxx .

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxxx to xxxxx for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxxx (subscriber version) at the end of November.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at 4300 in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxxx would set a course toward xxxxx in November and possibly xxxxx (subscriber version)  in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures remain bullish.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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The Fed Pulls The Plug, Macro Liquidity Cruiser Starts Its Turn

Lee Adler

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In the financial markets, money talks. I have observed and reported for many years that talking about a change in monetary policy, announcing that change, and actually executing it, are entirely different matters. The market tends not to anticipate change, it responds to actual changes in liquidity.

While the Fed and the mouthpieces of the mob have talked about tightening policy for months, the Fed only announced that it will finally tighten policy this month. The policy has yet to begin. That changes next week.

The new policy implementation begins now. The Fed actually will reduce its QE purchases for the first time since September 2019. That’s when the Fed undertook its emergency “Not QE” policy in response to the money markets freezing up. That came about from a Fed policy of non-intervention after Powell ended Yellen’s balance sheet normalization in December 2018. From December 2018 until September 2019, the Fed stood by while an onslaught of Treasury supply crushed the money markets.

The new policy that begins now is a tightening because it will reduce QE purchases. Anything that isn’t the status quo purchase rate of a total of $200 billion or so a month including MBS replacements, is effectively a tightening. The Fed will be buying less paper each month.

And so, the actual effects of the new policy begin now. The Fed will reduce its Treasury purchases by $10 billion for the mid November- mid December period. It will cut MBS purchases by $5 billion. It will continue to roll over maturing Treasury holdings and prepaid MBS. The net effect will be a reduction of $15 billion in the first month, and then $15 billion the following month.

They said they’d be flexible. In other words, if the markets tank, they’ll be back with more QE. The idea that they’ll continue cutting purchases for the 7 months it would take to get to zero, is a pipe dream. But it’s possible that they could cut for at least xxx-xxx months (subscriber version) before running into problems big enough to stop them.

I wrote months ago that the Fed could only reduce QE if the Treasury cuts issuance. That’s on the schedule this month, particularly as the new debt ceiling again restricts issuance.

But reduced issuance isn’t no issuance. After the dust settles and the debt ceiling is finally lifted or suspended for the long haul, the US Treasury will still be issuing an average of $150 billion per month in net new debt. If the Fed cuts QE for two months to new purchases of $90 billion per month after two months, and MBS replacement purchases average another $50 billion or so, the Fed will still be taking down directly or financing indirectly 93% of new issuance. No problem there. The market could sail right along with that.

But higher bond yields mean higher mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates mean fewer refinances and fewer MBS prepayments. We don’t know exactly how much. But it will be an exacerbating factor. At the peak of the refi boom, Fed MBS purchases totaled $120-130 billion per month. Now they’re down to $100-110 billion per month, and they will drop more as mortgage rates rise.

If the stock market remains relatively stable going into January, the Fed will continue to cut its total outright purchases of Treasuries and MBS. They’ll go to $75 billion in January, and $60 billion in February. At that point, let’s say MBS replacements drop to around $40 billion a month. Then total Fed purchases would be around $115 billion and Treasury issuance would still be $150 billion. Then we’re talking about 77% of new issuance.

The benchmark for the Fed for the past dozen years has been to directly absorb and indirectly fund a total of  xx% (subscriber version) of new issuance. The only time they went lower for any length of time was during the Yellen balance sheet bloodletting from October 2017 to December 2018. That did not go well. Once the 10 year breached 3%, the panic was on. Powell took over, panicked, reversed course, and began QE to infinity and beyond.

Now we’re going to find out again how far they can push the “tapering” fantasy. They told the market that they’re going to be “flexible.” Which means that they’ll reverse course at the first sign of trouble.

The issue is where that will be. First benchmark to watch on the 10 year is txxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). If that’s cleared, and I have little doubt that it will be, the pressure will be on.

The Fed’s media mouthpieces will start floating the trial balloons around then. But remember! Guidance schmidance. Money talks, and BS, even Fed BS, walks. Once the pressure on the markets begins to manifest itself, the market won’t reverse course just because of a few words from the Fed. The market will only reverse when the money starts to flow again.

As Johnnie Cochrane famously said, “The Fed must pump, or the market will dump.”

With that in mind, we look at the macro liquidity chart (subscriber version) to this point and see that nothing has changed. Stock prices continue to track with rising liquidity. But that rise is about to slow, and month after month for the next xxx-xxx months (subscriber version) months at least, the Fed will tighten the screws. My guess is that around xxxxxxxx (subscriber version), we should start to see negative impacts in the financial markets. Treasuries will come under pressure first. Stocks will follow.

Be ready for things to change. The Fed is tightening. Rule Number One now points in the other direction for the first time since the Yellen bloodletting of 2017-18.

All spelled out and illustrated in the subscriber version.

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Gold Cycle Projections Hold Good News

Lee Adler

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There’s a lot of good news in the cycle projections table (subscriber version). Cycles are in gear to the upside and projections point higher. Now those projections just need to come to fruition. A breakout through xxxx (subscriber version)  should get the ball rolling uphill. Failure to do so within the next couple of weeks would not be good.

Gold made a little progress over the past week but it still needs to clear xxxx (subscriber version) to break out of the trading range. That would essentially end the risk that this year-long consolidation would break down and lead to another downleg in a bear market. Until that upside breakout, the outlook would continue to hold that risk.

On the long term chart of the gold stock index, the neckline of a potential reverse head and shoulders bottom is now at xxxx (subscriber version). Clearing that would be bullish. Failing, and subsequently falling back under xxxx (subscriber version), would be bearish.

Today, there are 24 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is a big departure from the small numbers of signals in recent weeks, suggesting the possible onset of a new upleg. I expected to see some charts with good setups but I found only two that I liked enough to add to the list, xxxx  and xxxx (subscriber version). The rest were still below big resistance.

Current open picks and one that was stopped out last week, had an average gain of 16.3% and an average holding period of 37 calendar days.  I will drop (xxxx) as of the opening price on Tuesday and track the two new picks also as of the opening price on Tuesday.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Swing Trade Screens Have Buy Side Surge

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 68 buys and 22 sells, which is far more signals than is usual. It compares with 11 buys and 33 sells the Friday before. This indicates a new, moderate buy side thrust. It’s not the kind of surge that comes off a significant low, but it does suggest a second wind for the rally.

1317 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 6.8% of them rendered signals on Friday. That’s almost double the signal rate of recent weeks, suggesting again, more stocks making initial moves off a minor low. It was a sign that, when reviewing the charts, I should find some interesting buy side setups.

I did, adding 7 buys to the list. I’ll start tracking those as of Monday’s opening prices. This will bring the list to 15 open picks, of which 12 will be longs, and 3 are shorts.

Including the pick that I closed as of last Monday’s open, there were 9 picks total last week, of which 6 were longs and 3 were shorts. The average gain was 8.5% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days.

The table and charts of open picks are below (subscriber version only).

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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Relentless Rally Reaches Likely Reaction Point

Lee Adler

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Yes, a likely reaction point. But that may not mean much. Cycle projections point higher still (subscriber version only)..

The 10-12 month cycle has entered an up phase, with ideally xx-xx (subscriber version only) months to run. There’s no projection on the S&P yet but the Qs look xxxxx friendly.

The 6 month cycle is early in an up phase. There’s no projection yet. The 13 week cycle is in an up phase. The projection now points to xxxx xxxx down from xxxx (subscriber version), last week.

Short term cycles didn’t bother with their down phases that were due. They’re trending. There’s an 8 week cycle projection of xxxxx.

On the third rail chart support is around xxxxx on Monday, rising to xxxxx on Friday. They’d need to break those to have any shot at any downside.

Trend resistance is rising, starting the week at approximately xxxxx and rising to around xxxxx.

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxxx to xxxxx for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxxx at the end of November.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at 4300 in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxxx would set a course toward xxxxx in November and possibly xxxxx in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures remain bullish.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Why Jerome Powell Had a Frog In His Throat

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Available at this link for legacy Treasury subscribers.

Did you notice in yesterday’s press conference how Jerome Powell kept clearing his throat. He was apparently choking on the vomit of his own double talk. The lies, self contradiction, and obfuscation were  breathtaking. This man has no conscience. But then, he’s a central banker. What should we expect.

It’s a good thing that Powell doesn’t own a big bond portfolio.

Well, actually, he does. A lot of munies. A lot of real estate funds, and lots and lots of stock funds. But he makes policy to benefit American workers, who can’t afford to buy houses from the real estate ETFs that Powell owns. Supposedly.

That will be the extent of expressing my disgust with yesterday’s spectacle. The purpose of this report is to review the state of real time tax collections as they accurately show what the US economy is actually doing, and to relate that to the unusually important twin pieces of news that came out yesterday. One was the TBAC schedule for the first quarter of 2022, and the other was the Fed’s taper announcement.

The Fed plans to cut $15 billion a month from their purchases until they get to zero net purchases next June. It’s no surprise that at the same time, less Treasury issuance is forecast. The TBAC says that issuance will be cut in half in Q1.

We knew that the strong tax collections would cause issuance to begin to shrink. We knew that the Fed would only taper QE when Treasury issuance began to decline. There’s no surprise in any of this.

One Bloomberg story highlighted the fact that the Fed’s taper was simultaneous with the Treasury “tapering” issuance. There’s just one problem. While issuance will be cut in half from Q4 to Q1, assuming that the next lifting of the debt ceiling doesn’t screw that up, the Fed’s purchases would go to zero under their plan. At the same time, half of the current level of Treasury issuance still amounts to $150 billion per month on average.

Let me say this about that.

The market cannot absorb $150 billion a month in new issuance at current price levels. Bond prices will crater before the Fed ever gets remotely close to zero QE. In fact, just 2-3 months of reduced QE might be all the market can bear.

We know that for the past dozen years with QE, the Fed has funded 85-90% of Treasury issuance month in and month out. They’ve done it with a combination of outright purchase, and indirect funding through cashing out dealers via MBS purchases.

Yellen tapered for a year. Treasury yields soared. Powell came on the scene, choked, stopped tapering, and soon started printing again like there was no tomorrow.

They’ve suppressed bond yields as a result. They have screwed yields to the floor, screwing risk averse savers in the process.

The mirror of that is that they nailed prices to the ceiling. Most of the world’s wealth is tied up in bonds and real estate. Powell and his cronies benefitted immensely from the Fed’s direct suppression of yields and inflation of bond prices.

When Treasury issuance increased, the Fed increased QE to insure that bond holders suffered no losses, and that the residential and commercial real estate bubbles continued to inflate.

But even with that increased support, the yield on the 10 year has risen from 0.50 to 1.50-1.70. We’re about to see what happens when the Fed cuts its absorption to less than 85%. The Fed says it will be flexible. The taper isn’t on autopilot.

I’ll say. Watch what happens when the 10 year yield explodes past 2%. Let’s see how long they stick with this “taper” while Powell and friends’ personal holdings of bonds and real estate funds crater.

We have a couple of wild cards in the mix. These include the xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version only), which is already again beginning to stifle issuance. The Treasury returned to T-bill paydowns last week after issuing $254 billion in net new bills since October 15. They’re already running into the new higher debt ceiling, so they have to start paying down T-bills again while they continue to issue coupon (longer term) debt.

So the games will begin again. With that $254 billion that the Treasury raised in T-bill sales, they managed to rebuild the Treasury cash account from around $50 billion to $311 billion as of November 2.

That’s probably enough to hold off the dogs until xxxxxxx (subscriber version only). At that point, we’re going to have to have another debt ceiling increase. Hopefully this one will be more or less permanent, simply because it’s easier to forecast when we know what the limit will be or not be, for the foreseeable future. Otherwise we’ll have to keep floating like a butterfly as we go.

For now there are things in place that will buy a lot of market shenanigans for a few months. They include the $311 billion in the Treasury account, the presence of the xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (subscriber version only),, and the $1.35 trillion still sitting in the Fed’s RRP slush fund.

The day of reckoning is not today. It probably won’t be xxxx (subscriber version only), because they get a xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx (subscriber version only), that xxxxxxxx xxxx. It might be xxxxxxxx, or xxxxxxx, or xxxxxxxx. I’d guess closer to the later part of that period, but it all depends on whatever develops day to day. That’s why we track this data. We’ll see the changes coming in time to act.

The smart money has already been tiptoeing out the side door. We see that in the 10 year yield bumping up toward the highs again. That’s what I’d key on. I’ve said for months that I don’t want to be holding Treasuries or longer term fixed income investments. That doesn’t change.

Assuming that the 10 year yield does break out above xxxx (subscriber version only), that’s where I think we’ll really start to see the wheels come off. First in the bond market. But down the road in stocks too. It may not be an immediate worry, but at some point in xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx (subscriber version only), it will be.

The technical analysis of the stock market itself should tell us when the turn is under way. I wouldn’t short the market stock market heavily until the TA tells me that it’s safe to do that. It hasn’t told me that yet. Although I have a couple of toes in the water in the swing trade chart picks list in the Technical Trader reports.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscribers, click here to download the report. Available at this link for legacy Treasury subscribers.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

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Gold Is in Perfect Equilibrium AND Maximum Uncertainty

Lee Adler

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Short term cycles are due for pullbacks or consolidations while the 13-17 week cycle remains in an up phase. Its projection has risen slightly to xxxx (subscriber version). Unfortunately however, the 9-12 month cycle indicators are weakening again, which doesn’t bode well for this up phase. The uncertainty will persist for as long as gold remains locked in the xxxx-xxxx range(subscriber version).

The depth of last week’s pullback leaves the strength of the 6 month cycle up phase in the mining stock index in doubt. The chart shows the parameters we need to watch (subscriber version)..

Today, there are 7 buys and 1 sell from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is an uptick after 3 weeks of more short term sell than buy signals, but it’s not broad enough to signal a new upleg.

Current open picks have an average gain of 14.2% and an average holding period of 32 calendar days. I plan on letting these ride through the consolidation phase with the exception of xxxx, which has broken signal lines in the wake of xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version).. . I’ll let it ride as long as it stays above the stop, but if the stop is hit, I’ll remove it.

None of the new buy signals were compelling, therefore no new picks this week.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report. 

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Swing Trade Screens Yield More Sells than Buys Again

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 11 buys and 33 sells. That compares with 15 buys and 40 sells the Friday before.

1238 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 3.5% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal. Despite the preponderance of sell signals, there’s no evidence of broad downside thrust. It is just a narrow pullback/consolidation.

Picks are summarized in the table below (subscriber version only). I will bail out on one of them, XXXX, to possibly revisit at a later date. That will leave 8 on the list. Including the bailee, the list showed an average gain of 4.5% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days.

I’m again foregoing stops. This tactic has paid off recently. It doesn’t guarantee that it always will but my backtesting in the past has shown that stops don’t work. They don’t protect against gap losses, and they take out positions that subsequently recover. More often than not, it pays to wait for the rebound to minimize losses on trades that go the wrong way. The conventional wisdom about stops, like much Wall Street conventional wisdom, is wrong.

In my opinion, the way to control risk isn’t to use stops. It is to spread risk among several positions.
That way, if one takes a hit, there are enough other selections that there’s room for the ones that are going to run the right way, to do so. That should offset losses on the ones that don’t go as expected. And the ones that go the wrong way can still be maximized by using TA to the best advantage for the subsequent exit.

Of course, no trading method is perfect. There will always be losses and drawdowns. For now, these are the tactics and strategy that I’ve decided to run with. This is for informational and entertainment purposes, not individual investment advice. You must do what’s right for you.

After reviewing the charts, I saw nothing compelling. There are no new picks. I’ll sit tight with what we already have which is 5 longs and 3 shorts. The table and charts of open picks are below.

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

 

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Stock Pause That Refreshes

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Short term cycles look to be headed for a breather. But don’t expect much downside.

I must now rate the 10-12 month cycle as xxxxxxx , with a strong possibility that it has begun xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version only). The 6 month cycle is early in an up phase. The 13 week cycle is in an up phase, with an updated projection of xxxx.

Short term cycles have entered what should be consolidations lasting a couple of weeks. They may manifest as merely a slowing in the rate of advance or a trading range.

On the third rail chart the SPX broke out to a new high and continued its climb in the upper half of its short term uptrend channel. The top of the short term channel starts the week at xxxx and rises to end the week at xxxx.

Above that are multiple intermediate and long term trendlines around xxxx (subscriber version only). If broken the SPX could run to xxxx. or even xxxx..

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxx to xxxx. for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxx at the end of November (subscriber version only). .

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at xxxx in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxx would set a course toward xxxx in November and possibly xxxx in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures are in a pullback but remain generally bullish.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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It Only Takes One House Fire to Start a Conflagration

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.` Primary dealers have reduced their long fixed income positions but they have dramatically increased their leverage. On the one hand, they have reduced their risk exposure, and on the other hand, they have increased it.

It doesn’t make much sense on the surface. But the leverage increase appears extreme, and that’s something to note as the government moves toward its ultimate resolution of the debt ceiling. That will allow a tidal flow of Treasury issuance to batter the market. At the same time, the Fed will almost certainly begin to “taper” its bond purchases. In other words, the supply of Treasuries will increase, while the market’s largest source of demand will diminish.

These facts argue for much higher yields and lower bond prices. The short term timing is uncertain. We’ll rely on the technical analysis of the charts for that. But beyond the next couple of months, all the pressure on yields should be to the upside. Which means bond prices will head lower. That could set off a firestorm in not only Primary Dealer inventories, but bank long term bond portfolios as well.

It doesn’t bode well for a neat and clean outcome for the Fed’s tapering attempt. At some point it will be forced to reverse course. But they’ll try for a while. I think that the outcome in the markets will be chaos to the downside in prices.

This report looks at the particulars of dealer positions, financing, and hedges, as well as the profits and capital trends of the big banks in the aggregate (charts and discussion in subscriber version). These aren’t timing tools but give us some idea where the risk of a blowup lies. Then I discuss the technical charts, key benchmarks and strategy (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.`

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

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