Lee AdlerFederal tax collections rebounded sharply in June, including the all-important withholding taxes. I can’t explain why this happened, nor does it matter. My job is…
The thing is, there’s no such thing as “oversold” in a bear market. OK, maybe there is, but it’s at a much lower parameter than…
Nothing has changed since I last updated this Fed QT report three weeks ago. I have updated all the charts and details in the body…
Primary dealers have finally taken aggressive action to mitigate the losses in their bond portfolios. But it is too late. The damage is done, and…
Federal tax collections plunged in May, withholding taxes in particular. Those worried about a slowing economy now have real data to back them up. In…
At its May meeting, the Fed announced the beginning of its program to shrink its balance sheet. That program is colloquially known as QT or…
The gradual flattening of the CLI is now visible. Starting in June, it should turn negative. The Fed will begin literally removing cash from the…
The conditions for a rally in bonds were there, only the will was missing. That finally showed up last week. Meanwhile, the dealers finally meaningfully…
Federal tax collections were once again extremely strong in April, including withholding taxes, and individual non-withheld income taxes in particular. In fact there were strong…
Ending QE has created the perfect storm in the markets. Our warnings about the bond market going to hell and leading the stock market have…
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) told us in early February that it estimated that the US Treasury would pay down $358 billion in T-bills…
I began to warn in December 2021 that the process of the CLI flattening was beginning, and that that would lead to bad things happening.…