Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Short term cycles have extended through expected peaks, thanks to the extraordinary circumstances. Projections on the 13/17 week and 9/12 month cycles  have risen and now point to xxxx  to xxxx (subscriber version) up from 2000 last week. We are in the window for highs to form on those cycles. However, given the extraordinary circumstances, I would not assume an end to the spike until we see technical evidence of it, such as trendline breaks and downturns in momentum indicators.

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The high base breakout on long term charts that we’ve been looking forward to is essentially complete, and confirmed by a breakout in long term momentum. The initial conventional measured move target is xxxx (subscriber version).

A long term cycle high is due in xxxx.

The correction has ended in the mining stocks. Short term cycles rejoined the two longer cycles on the plus side. The 13 week and 6 month cycles are near maximum strength. In bull markets this is not a sign of an overextended trend.  In past bull phases such conditions have lasted for weeks at times. Normally, negative divergences in these numbers would precede price peak in the sector.

Over the  week ended March 7, 46 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 30 had at least one sell signal, which means that a few swung both ways. It’s like that.

These are for swings of 3-5 weeks. For the prior two weeks there were a plurality of sell signals. The corrective phase ended with a bang last week.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal from last Tuesday through the week, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 34, which is extraordinary. I inspected those charts looking for good entry setups for picks to add to the list this week.

Most had risen to, or just below major resistance. While the trends are all bullish, these are not low risk short term entry points. Then the question was whether to take a shot on a laggard or two. While these are extraordinary circumstances, my answer there was, again, to stick with the discipline. So I’m adding no new picks this week.

Over the past week there were 6 open selections. All had gains. The average gain was 21% with an average holding period of 31 calendar days. That’s up from 8.7% and average holding period of 24 calendar days the week before.

I’ve adjusted stops on all open picks. Table and charts below (subscriber version).

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See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

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Gold looks good and so do the miners.

Gold is attacking important trend resistance around 1910. If it breaks through, the next target would be xxxx (subscriber version). The 9-12 month cycle projection is now xxxx, with a high projected between xxxx  and xxxx. However, the 13-17 week cycle projection has been met, suggesting  that a consolidation or pullback is likely in the short run… (subscriber version).

Over the  3 days Feb 16-18 since the last report, 16 charts of the 52 that I track had at least one buy signal. That’s still bullish. A screen of all 52 stocks in the group on Friday, had just two buy signals and 22 sells, as the sector pulled back. It suggests that a pullback or consolidation is due. I looked at the 2 stocks that had buy signals and took a pass on adding any to the list this week.

That will leave us with 8 open selections. All had small gains, with an average gain of 6.9% and average holding period of 19 calendar days. I’ve added or adjusted stops on all picks. Charts below.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

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Over the 4 days Feb 1-4, 45 charts of the 52 that I track, had at least one buy signal. That’s promising. I screened those with prior buy signals for buy signals that triggered on Monday. There were 25, indicating signal progression through several short term time frames. I then gave those the eyeball test. Many of them looked like they could move higher. I chose 3 that I liked the best to add to the list as shown on the table below. That will leave us with 7 open selections.

Looking at a screen of all 52 stocks in the group on Monday, there were 35 buy signals, before applying the filter of those that had signaled previously last week. It suggests that the group should be higher in a week or two than it is now.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

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Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The good news is that cycle projections are rising and all point higher. There are also some promising  picks among the miners. We’ve had 3 on the list already, and they’ve been moving up.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Gold There are signs of cycles getting in gear to the upside, but no sign of thrust yet. Initial upside projections point to xxxx – xxxx (in subscriber version).  Gold needs to clear xxxx to break the 13 week cycle MA and signal at least a little more upside in the short run.

On the very long term monthly chart, gold remains above a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx  xxxxx range (in subscriber version).

HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).  A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx.  If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx.  On the long term weekly chart HUI has broken its 6 month cycle MA. Here’s what that implies for the outlook (in subscriber version)..

On the ultra long term monthly chart, HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. With HUI ending December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target is xxxx–xxxx in the first quarter of 2022. It faces major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – The numbers surged over the past week but 6 month cycles remained deeply negative. That needs to show much more improvement for us to have confidence that there will be an extended rally. But this is a start. So I’m continuing to nibble.

I’ve tweaked the method to use screens from each day of the past week instead of just the last day of the weekly period. Charts that show up more than once, with buy signals yesterday are preferred. From that list I pick those with structures I like. This week I’m adding one to the list as shown below.  I’m staying with the existing picks, and allowing breathing room with no, or very loose stops. Currently open picks show an average gain of 9.4% on an average holding period of 3 weeks.

Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!