Category: 2 – Technical Trader

The major cycle technical bear case gets to live another day this week. I drew the parameters of the line in the sand last week, and the bulls didn’t cross it. But the bears didn’t win outright either. They need to hold the line this week to continue what may be the onset of a 6 month cycle top process.

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Cycles-   There are hints of a downturn here but up phases in the two longer cycles could xxxx xxx xxx xxxx xxxx. The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due xxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxx x xxxxx xxxxxx. Cycle projections remain in the xxxx-xxxx range, implying that the rally will xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx .Non subscribers click here to access.

Short term cycles are mixed but the 6-7 week cycle was xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx , so I’m wary of xx xxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – A weekly close above xxxx this week would break the sharp downtrend from last week. However, weakness on Monday would suggest xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. A daily close below xxxx would imply a measured move target of xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

If they manage to break out of the downtrend channel, there’s a big resistance cluster around xxxx-xxxx. If cleared, it would open the likelihood of upside to xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  Last week’s pullback kept the bearish case alive but the S&P still needs to stay below xxxx or xxxx at most, to keep the long term downtrend intact. If it’s broken to the upside, that and other long term indicators could signal the end of the bear market. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   12/4/22 The rally needs to end December below xxxx, or the bear case will be in trouble, at least in the short run. Clearing that level would imply a target of the trendline at xxxx or the xxxx xxxx of xxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The aggregate indicator is now short term xxxx, but the intermediate term not so much. The indicators suggest, but don’t yet confirm, that the 6 month cycle has xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx. They allow for taking xxxx positions, but with protective stops just in case this 6 month cycle xxxx xxxx gets a xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx topping out. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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For the week ended December 2, there were 44 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 45 sells. 2 of the sells were bearish ETFs. 1 of the buys was also a bearish ETF, resulting in net gain of one on the bear side, and a final score of 45 bullish and 44 bearish signals. That’s essentially a tie after two consecutive weeks of a bearish tilt in new signals. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The market overall is still riding the residual momentum of the 174 to 18 win for the buy side 3 weeks before. Often the results of such surges don’t begin to show up until the second week after the bulge in signals. Without any in-depth statistical analysis, my sense is that a signal surge like this has a shelf life of 3-4 weeks. Consequently, I think that time is up on this rally. But there has been no sell side surge in recent weeks, so the path of least resistance should still be on the buy side until we see triple digits on the sell side one day. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the above in mind, in my visual review of the screen output this week I leaned toward giving the benefit of the doubt to the buy side. But most of the buys were trading at or just below major resistance. I took a shot on three that appeared primed to break out. Non-subscribers click here for access.

At the same time, I found 5 that I liked on the sell side, and added those as shorts. All or noted on the table below, with charts following, so that you can judge for yourself whether you agree with my take. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All previously open picks and those closed out last week are shown on the table below After adding the new picks, there will be 5 buys and 8 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week, performance went backward, with an average gain of 2.5% on an average holding period of 2 weeks.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

For the week ended November 25, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 54 sells. 3 of the buys were bearish ETFs, resulting in a final score of 43 bullish and 57 bearish signals. That’s the second consecutive week of a bearish tilt in new signals, and a reversal from the 174 to 18 win for the buy side two weeks before.

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Bear in mind that this is but a fraction of the 1300-1400 issues that normally meet the minimum screening criteria of price of $6+ and average volume over a million per day for the past 4 weeks. Therefore the past two weeks of small numbers of sell signal pluralities did not overcome the bullish thrust of two weeks before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

11/21/22 This has been rangebound meat grinder market, characterized by whipsaw signals on both sides of the ledger. Rangebound markets tend to slice and dice swing trade systems that are looking for moves of several weeks, as my system is. It’s a market that takes us out behind the woodshed, and administers a financial and psychological beating. It’s a reminder to stay humble and alert. We just have to gut it out, outlast it, and work on catching and being well positioned for the next swing, regardless of direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of the recent character of the market, I again reviewed the charts with an abundance of caution this weekend. I again came up empty on the buy side. I was equally unimpressed with the sell signals, but there were two that I liked enough to add to the list for this week. All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with 3 longs and 7 shorts. I added or adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week, we saw good performance, but it is tenuous. There were 7 winners and 1 loser. The average gain was 5.4% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. Table below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

November has been a struggle. On picks closed out this month, the list has shown an average loss of 1.9% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. If there are profits this week, that will even out somewhat. Over the past 12 months, the average gain has been 1.6% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

For the week ended November 18, there were 48 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 75 sells. 4 of the buys were bearish ETFs, resulting in a final score of 44 bullish and 79 bearish signals. That’s a reversal from the 174 to 18 win for the buy side the week before. That apparent strength fizzled in mid week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

This has been rangebound meat grinder market, characterized by whipsaw signals on both sides of the ledger. Rangebound markets tend to slice and dice swing trade systems that are looking for moves of several weeks, as my system is. It’s a market that takes us out behind the woodshed, and administers a financial and psychological beating. It’s a reminder to stay humble and alert. We just have to gut it out, outlast it, and work on catching and being well positioned for the next swing, regardless of direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of the recent character of the market, I reviewed the charts with an abundance of caution this weekend. I came up empty on the buy side. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Most of the shorts looked premature. They still appear to have some bouncing to do before they roll over. But I liked 5 of them enough to add to the list. That will give it some balance, adding 5 shorts to the 5 longs still on the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week I was cautious despite the huge number of buy signals. I added two longs to the list. They did poorly, and I’m looking to limit the losses by adding tight stops. The charts have deteriorated and I’m not willing to give them much more wiggle room for potential rebounds. I’m also cutting one other loser as of the opening price this morning, and tightening stops on the rest. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

For the week ended November 11, there were 173 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 19 with second or third sell signals, and one of those was a bear ETF, so the net score would have been 174 to 18. That is as lopsided as I’ve ever seen. There were too many buys to visually review all, and we already had longs on the list so I started with the sells, and then looked at as many buys as I had time for.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

In looking at the charts with sell signals, I saw only one that looked remotely interesting.  It was a Brazilian airline preferred stock. No thanks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Among the sampling of buys that I reviewed virtually all had already moved to just below resistance. Not ideal entry points. I found two that I liked enough to add to the list, as shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.