Category: 2 – Technical Trader

For the week ended September 30, there were 19 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday, and 35 with second or third sell signals. Bears still had an edge but it was slight, and turns often occur without warning, particularly as a swing ages. And this one is aged.

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On Friday on a standalone basis there were 13 buys and 9 sells. This is still nothing to get excited about for either side. Without a more lopsided advantage on both the multiple signal look, and the last day look, I want to tread lightly. This decline is already mature, and I’m concerned about a short covering spike, despite the lack of evidence. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

After visually reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, I was underwhelmed on both sides. So I’ll stand pat and ride with what remains on the list after two picks hit their trailing stops last week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The four remaining picks have gained an average of 4.7% on an average holding period of 7 calendar days as of today (Monday). The normal maximum number of picks is 12, so with 4 currently open, that implies just a 25% capital commitment with the rest assumed to be cash. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/26/22 Would be nice to have had more shorts out, but with a schedule of only once a week, sometimes the swing trade turn gets missed, particularly when they happen on a V reversal. These are common at lows but rare at highs. Rare doesn’t mean never, however, and we got one two weeks ago. Non-subscribers click here for access.

But there’s something to be said for spending a few minutes a week on trading, rather than hours in front of a screen.  Life must be lived! Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

As of the week ended Monday, September 26 closing prices, there was only 1 chart with second or third buy signals over the past two trading days, and 53 with second or third sell signals. That compares with 64 multiple sells at the end of the week before. For the week, the bears still had it, but that can turn on a dime. On Monday on a standalone basis there were 9 buys and 9 sells. Nothing to get excited about for either side.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The scoreboard for September so far, excluding the two picks still open (+10.5% avg.), shows an average gain of 3.4%, on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. All of the 16 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visually reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, I found the one buy signal uninteresting. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the sell side, there were quite a few that appeared to have a little running room to the downside, but too little before reaching support. I skipped over those. Ultimately there were 4 that I liked enough to add to the list on the short side. They were xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, and xxxx. Do we notice a theme there? The charts are posted below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the 15% exposure that I theoretically committed on the existing picks, adding these 4 would bring me to a commitment of about 45% of my trading capital, with the other 55% in cash. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The two existing picks have gained an average of 10.5% on an average holding period of 8 calendar days as of today. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Would be nice to have had more shorts out, but with a schedule of only once a week, sometimes the swing trade turn gets missed, particularly when they happen on a V reversal. These are common at lows but rare at highs. Rare doesn’t mean never, however, and we got one two weeks ago. Non-subscribers click here for access.

But there’s something to be said for spending a few minutes a week on trading, rather than hours in front of a screen.  Life must be lived!  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For  this week, I’m adding 4 picks on the short side as of Tuesday’s opening print. I have added trailing stops to the two existing picks to take them out automatically if the stops get hit. The 4 new picks will have no stops for the first week to give them some breathing room. Diversification will provide some cushion if one of them goes haywire against us.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

As of Monday, September 19, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals over the past two trading days, and 64 with second or third sell signals.  On Monday on a standalone basis there were 21 buys and 19 sells. Meh. But I found two charts that I liked as shorts.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

This is not a failsafe market indicator. Recall that the September 9 scan was 99 to nothing on the buy side. That turned out to be completely wrong for the week. Fortunately, when I eyeballed the charts for buys to add to the list last week, I didn’t like anything, and elected to stand pat. On the other hand, there were some great shorts that the scan didn’t pick up. These moves are just too short in duration for this system to pick up. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing trades, so the fewer picks in rangebound markets the better. Non-subscribers click here for access.

completely wrong for the week. Fortunately, when I eyeballed the charts for buys to add to the list last week, I didn’t like anything, and elected to stand pat. On the other hand, there were some great shorts that the scan didn’t pick up. These moves are just too short in duration for this system to pick up. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing trades, so the fewer picks in rangebound markets the better.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

The scoreboard for September so far shows an average gain of 3.4%, on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. All of the 16 picks closed out so far in September were shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

After reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, once again, I did not see any charts I liked on the buy side. The intermediate trend setups were not conducive to significant upside. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Unlike the prior week, this time there were also some sell side charts to review. There were a few that looked borderline OK to short, but the setups looked a couple of weeks early for that. They are more likely to go sideways or pop a little first. However, as I reached the end of the alphabetical list, I could no longer restrain my bearish proclivities, so I will add xxx and xxx to the list as shorts as of the opening price today, September 20.  I am mentally limiting these to a total of not more than 15% of my trading capital to allow for building up to the normal 12-15 open trades at max.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Trailing stops did their job last week, taking out all 11 remaining older picks on the short side with profits on 9 of the 11. Unfortunately, the 2 new picks are still festering, and I’ll excise them as of the open this morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of Friday, September 9, there were 89 charts with second or third buy signals on the last two days of the week. There were 10 charts with second or third sell signals to end the week, but all 10 were inverse ETFs, so they were also sell signals. Thus the final score was 99 to nothing on the buy side. I don’t care what sport it is, that’s quite a shutout. On Friday alone there were 122 buy signals and just 2 sell signals (that weren’t inverse ETFs). Non-subscribers click here for access.

I guess the question is whether this signals a new bull market, or overdone hysteria on the buy side, the possible result of a massive bull raid on short positions that triggered squeezes across a broad spectrum of stocks. I’ll guess the latter, but that doesn’t mean it can’t persist for a few weeks. But it also doesn’t mean that it’s a high percentage trade opportunity. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visual review of this week’s screen results,  I chose exactly zero charts to add to the buy list, and there weren’t any shorts to even look at. I just can’t buy this rally. To do so would be with unclean hands. So we will go through this week empty handed, rather than dirty handed. 😄

Yes, there were multiple short term buy signals, but the trend structures sucked. Virtually every chart was trading just below a thicket of resistance. I have no desire to get caught in a churn and burn meat grinder, so I’ll sit this one out for the time being. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week 11 picks were stopped out. All were shorts. 9 of the 11 were closed out with profits and two with fractional losses. The average was a gain of 4.3% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The two picks added last week will be dropped from the list using the opening price on Monday. They currently have an average loss of 8.8% on a 6 day holding period. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

As the decline matures the number of new sell signals naturally diminishes and the number of buy signals starts increasing. That happened last week but there was a slight increase in sell signals from the prior week.

The overall picture this week is ambiguous, neither bullish nor overwhelmingly bearish. It looks too soon for adding new buys to the list, and mostly too late for new sells. But I did add two shorts this week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of Friday September 2, there were 33 charts with second or third buy signals on the last two days of the week. There were 29 charts with second or third sell signals to end the week, versus 18 the week before. On Friday alone there were 32 buy signals and 23 sell signals. But many of the buy signals were inverse fund sell signals, and were duplicative, such as funds that were 1x, 2x, and 3x the same or similar indexes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visual review of this week’s screen results, I have added 2 picks to the list on the short side, and none on the buy side. The new shorts are XXX and XXXX. This will result in the list having 13 picks, all shorts. Charts below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As usual, I’ll start them with no stops for the first week, to give the market manipulators room to play with them before the expected swing sets in. Tracking of the new picks will start as of the opening price on Tuesday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added and adjusted stops on existing open picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week 4 picks were stopped out —  2 shorts and 2 buys – all wins. The gains ranged from 2.7% to 15.1% and averaged 9.6%.  The average gain of open and closed picks for the week was 7.7%. The average holding period was 12 calendar days. We can’t annualize that, of course, but profits over the past 3 weeks have beaten the averages since November.

The performance of currently open picks and those closed last week is shown on the table above (subscriber version).  Charts of open and new picks are below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

1/18/22 I will continue to (mostly) forego stops in the first week that a pick is added to the list. I continue to feel that stops should only be used as trend violation triggers for exiting trades that I want to close out. That would include both those that have gone well and those that have not. I still do not like arbitrary stop loss as a strategy to reduce loss, because it has equal or greater potential to reduce profits on trades that ultimately turn into big winners. Stop running, and using false breakouts and breakdowns are time honored strategies of dealers and big speculators. Such whipsaws often lead to big moves. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.