Category: 2 – Technical Trader

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This Friday’s screens had  26 buys and 136 sells. 9 of the buys were inverse ETFs, meaning that only 17 of the signals were bullish and 145 were bearish. This is a big number that indicates downside thrust, but it can also mean that it’s time for a minor bounce first.

This week’s numbers compare with 19  buys and 53 sells which was a pretty good indication that last week would be bearish. 11/22/21 51 sells is still a big enough number on the sell side to make me sit up and pay attention. I was overconfident on the long side, and overstayed several of the longs on the pick list without trailing stops. I’ve instituted them, and a few outright sells this week.

Only 1246 stocks, about 100 less than usual, met the initial screening criteria in the current screen thanks to the semi holiday shortened session. But a whopping 13% of them rendered signals on Friday, which is more than triple the norm. Last week there were 4% sell signals. 11/22/21 That’s a more than a typical percentage of new signals on a given day. So it’s time to look for a possible rollover and more shorts to add to the list.

Last week, I added 6 shorts to the list and put stops or sells on most of the longs. 8 of them were closed out as a result. I have added a sell condition to one pick and have stops on 3 others.

On this week’s list of sell signals, most had dropped to or near support. As a general rule I would not short a chart where price was at or near support. This might be the rare time that they crash through, but I must go with percentages. Despite the 145 bearish signals I only found 4 charts that were weak enough but far enough above support to add to the list as shorts this week. They’re shown on the table below.

In total, this will bring the list to 13 open picks, of which 2 will be longs, and 11 will be shorts. That’s up from 6 shorts last week. I don’t remember ever having as many shorts since starting this swing trade chart picks a couple years ago.

As of Friday, the average gain of open picks and those closed last week was +2.2% with an average holding period of 20 days. That’s not bad considering the S&P tanked last week. As long as we have a  plus sign when the broad market is down, it has the smell of victory.

However, it compares with an average gain of + 3.6% with an average holding period of 27 calendar days. And that was a drop from an average gain of 8.5% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days 3 weeks ago. I previously allowed the list to age too much without installing trailing stops. Then last week, while I was Jack be nimble, I was not quite nimble enough.

The table and charts of open picks are below. I have stops in place on aged picks, but I’m leaving fate to the wind on the picks from last week, and this week’s new picks. Have to give them time to breathe. I will add stops as they age.

The table and charts of open picks are below (subscriber version only).

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 19  buys and 53 sells. 2 of those were inverse bond funds so we can ignore that. 51 sells is still a big enough number on the sell side to make me sit up and pay attention. I was overconfident on the long side, and overstayed several of the longs on the pick list without trailing stops. I’ve instituted them, and a few outright sells this week. I also didn’t trust the short picks and bailed on two of them too early last week.

1340 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 5.4% of them rendered signals on Friday, including nearly 4% that were sell signals. That’s a more than a typical percentage of new signals on a given day. So it’s time to look for a possible rollover and more shorts to add to the list.

On reviewing the charts, I found 6 setups I liked well enough as shorts to add to the list. They’re on the table below. I will remove 4 longs as of Monday’s opening price. I have added stops to 5 others.

In total, this will bring the list to 15 open picks, of which 9 will be longs, and 6 will be shorts. This is the most shorts we’ve had in many moons. “Many moons” is a way of saying how long its been when you don’t know the actual number of months. Let’s just say it’s been awhile.

As of Friday, the average gain of open picks and those closed last week was 3.6% with an average holding period of 27 calendar days. That was a drop from an average gain of 8.5% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days two weeks ago. I allowed the list to age too much without installing trailing stops. Will compensate going forward, but the market will undoubtedly make that look bad too.

The table and charts of open picks are below. I’m back to using trailing stops, and have instituted a couple of new picks with initial protective “just-in-case” stops.

The table and charts of open picks are below (subscriber version only).

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 29 buys and 30 sells.  It compares with 68 buys and 22 sells the Friday before. That indicated a new, moderate buy side thrust. It was not the kind of surge that comes off a significant low, but it suggested a second wind for the rally.

Initially it didn’t happen, but Friday’s rebound showed promise so I’m sticking with most of the picks from last week and earlier.

1311 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 4.5% of them rendered signals on Friday. That’s a typical percentage of new signals on a given day. But the fact that they were evenly split between buys and sells suggests that the market is going nowhere fast. The theory of this method is that more of  the picks will move in the right direction than not. Otherwise, why bother.

Given the mixed picture, however, I didn’t see much new and interesting in this week’s signal list. I added just one on the long side, and no shorts.  I’ll start tracking the new pick as of Monday’s opening price. I’ll also close out 2 shorts and one buy as of Monday’s opening price. Those charts show increased potential to go the wrong way.

This will bring the list to 13 open picks, of which 12 will be longs, and 1 is a short.

As of Friday, the average gain of older and newly opened picks was 5% with an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That was a drop from an average gain of 8.5% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days the week before.

All of that drop was due to new picks mostly starting out in the hole. There’s nothing unusual about that. Gotta give the newbies room to breathe, with the idea that enough of them will move the right way to give us a positive result overall.

The table and charts of open picks are below (subscriber version only).

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 68 buys and 22 sells, which is far more signals than is usual. It compares with 11 buys and 33 sells the Friday before. This indicates a new, moderate buy side thrust. It’s not the kind of surge that comes off a significant low, but it does suggest a second wind for the rally.

1317 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 6.8% of them rendered signals on Friday. That’s almost double the signal rate of recent weeks, suggesting again, more stocks making initial moves off a minor low. It was a sign that, when reviewing the charts, I should find some interesting buy side setups.

I did, adding 7 buys to the list. I’ll start tracking those as of Monday’s opening prices. This will bring the list to 15 open picks, of which 12 will be longs, and 3 are shorts.

Including the pick that I closed as of last Monday’s open, there were 9 picks total last week, of which 6 were longs and 3 were shorts. The average gain was 8.5% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days.

The table and charts of open picks are below (subscriber version only).

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 11 buys and 33 sells. That compares with 15 buys and 40 sells the Friday before.

1238 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 3.5% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal. Despite the preponderance of sell signals, there’s no evidence of broad downside thrust. It is just a narrow pullback/consolidation.

Picks are summarized in the table below (subscriber version only). I will bail out on one of them, XXXX, to possibly revisit at a later date. That will leave 8 on the list. Including the bailee, the list showed an average gain of 4.5% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days.

I’m again foregoing stops. This tactic has paid off recently. It doesn’t guarantee that it always will but my backtesting in the past has shown that stops don’t work. They don’t protect against gap losses, and they take out positions that subsequently recover. More often than not, it pays to wait for the rebound to minimize losses on trades that go the wrong way. The conventional wisdom about stops, like much Wall Street conventional wisdom, is wrong.

In my opinion, the way to control risk isn’t to use stops. It is to spread risk among several positions.
That way, if one takes a hit, there are enough other selections that there’s room for the ones that are going to run the right way, to do so. That should offset losses on the ones that don’t go as expected. And the ones that go the wrong way can still be maximized by using TA to the best advantage for the subsequent exit.

Of course, no trading method is perfect. There will always be losses and drawdowns. For now, these are the tactics and strategy that I’ve decided to run with. This is for informational and entertainment purposes, not individual investment advice. You must do what’s right for you.

After reviewing the charts, I saw nothing compelling. There are no new picks. I’ll sit tight with what we already have which is 5 longs and 3 shorts. The table and charts of open picks are below.

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans