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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Market Variant Not As Bad As It Looks

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles There’s no evidence yet of downturns in the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles. They’re still in up phases, but currently without projections.

The 13 week cycle has obviously turned down, ideally due to last xxxxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) . What can’t be known yet is the shape that the down phase will take.  If the xxxx area breaks down, the target would then be around xxxx . But if the xxxx  area holds, they could bump back up to the xxxx  area by year end.

On the third rail chart the SPX fell into a No Man’s Land on Friday. Support is xxxxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version). It rises to xxxx at the end of the week.  If it breaks, the targets would be xxxx, then xxxx. If the xxxx area holds, then the market should quickly rebound to the xxxx area.

 

xxxx (subscriber version).

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxxx to xxxxx for cycles of up to 7 years.

As long as the market is above xxxx (subscriber version) at year end, it would still be in a long term uptrend and the projections would still be doable.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at 4300 in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxxx would set a course toward xxxxx in November and possibly xxxxx (subscriber version)  in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures broke down, a week after I was skeptical about the negative indications. Now we know. 6 month cycle measures are now neutral. Another down week would turn them negative. The cumulative line is on the cusp. Market weakness this week would trigger a  xxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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An Explosion of Sell Signals in Swing Trade Screens

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 19  buys and 53 sells. 2 of those were inverse bond funds so we can ignore that. 51 sells is still a big enough number on the sell side to make me sit up and pay attention. I was overconfident on the long side, and overstayed several of the longs on the pick list without trailing stops. I’ve instituted them, and a few outright sells this week. I also didn’t trust the short picks and bailed on two of them too early last week.

1340 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 5.4% of them rendered signals on Friday, including nearly 4% that were sell signals. That’s a more than a typical percentage of new signals on a given day. So it’s time to look for a possible rollover and more shorts to add to the list.

On reviewing the charts, I found 6 setups I liked well enough as shorts to add to the list. They’re on the table below. I will remove 4 longs as of Monday’s opening price. I have added stops to 5 others.

In total, this will bring the list to 15 open picks, of which 9 will be longs, and 6 will be shorts. This is the most shorts we’ve had in many moons. “Many moons” is a way of saying how long its been when you don’t know the actual number of months. Let’s just say it’s been awhile.

As of Friday, the average gain of open picks and those closed last week was 3.6% with an average holding period of 27 calendar days. That was a drop from an average gain of 8.5% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days two weeks ago. I allowed the list to age too much without installing trailing stops. Will compensate going forward, but the market will undoubtedly make that look bad too.

The table and charts of open picks are below. I’m back to using trailing stops, and have instituted a couple of new picks with initial protective “just-in-case” stops.

The table and charts of open picks are below (subscriber version only).

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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Underweighting the Negative Signs

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles The 13 week cycle up phase is maturing. The projection range is now xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version).  Around xxxx is trend support. Above there, the up phase stays in progress. A breakdown through that level would signal a down phase.

Short term cycles are moving sideways in flat down phases, due to strengthen within a week or so. That could carry the averages a little higher while the 13 week cycle is due to top out.

On the third rail chart Support is at xxxx (subscriber version). on Monday and rises to around xxxx at the end of the week. The market faces a cluster of resistance trendlines at xxxx on Monday, rising to xxxx at the end of the week. Clearing that would signal acceleration with a likely target of 4800. If they don’t clear, it would set up the possibility of a downside reversal, but the market would also need to break support around 4650 to signal more downside.

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxxx to xxxxx for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxxx (subscriber version) at the end of November.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at 4300 in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxxx would set a course toward xxxxx in November and possibly xxxxx (subscriber version)  in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures sent quite a few indications that the market should be making a short term top here. But for the past year or more, the market averages have often trended higher on the basis of a few big stocks pushing the averages while perhaps the majority languished. So I will continue to underweight these indications.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted later Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Buys and Sells in Balance in Swing Trade Screens

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 29 buys and 30 sells.  It compares with 68 buys and 22 sells the Friday before. That indicated a new, moderate buy side thrust. It was not the kind of surge that comes off a significant low, but it suggested a second wind for the rally.

Initially it didn’t happen, but Friday’s rebound showed promise so I’m sticking with most of the picks from last week and earlier.

1311 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 4.5% of them rendered signals on Friday. That’s a typical percentage of new signals on a given day. But the fact that they were evenly split between buys and sells suggests that the market is going nowhere fast. The theory of this method is that more of  the picks will move in the right direction than not. Otherwise, why bother.

Given the mixed picture, however, I didn’t see much new and interesting in this week’s signal list. I added just one on the long side, and no shorts.  I’ll start tracking the new pick as of Monday’s opening price. I’ll also close out 2 shorts and one buy as of Monday’s opening price. Those charts show increased potential to go the wrong way.

This will bring the list to 13 open picks, of which 12 will be longs, and 1 is a short.

As of Friday, the average gain of older and newly opened picks was 5% with an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That was a drop from an average gain of 8.5% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days the week before.

All of that drop was due to new picks mostly starting out in the hole. There’s nothing unusual about that. Gotta give the newbies room to breathe, with the idea that enough of them will move the right way to give us a positive result overall.

The table and charts of open picks are below (subscriber version only).

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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Benefit of the Doubt to the Upside Until Proven Otherwise

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles There’s no sign of thrust in the 10-12 month cycle up phase. But there’s also no obvious resistance on the chart that would stop the market from drifting higher.

The 6 month cycle is now mid up phase. There’s no projection yet.

The 13 week cycle up phase is maturing. The projection now points to a range of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version) . Above support at xxxxx the up phase stays in progress. A breakdown through that level would signal a down phase.

On the third rail chart SPX faces a resistance trendline cluster in the xxxx-xxxxx (subscriber version)  range. Clearing that would signal acceleration within the short term channel. If they don’t clear, they could still stay within the short term channel. The lower limit starts the week at xxxxx and rises at 12.2 points per day (PPD). That would bring trend support to xxxxx at the end of the week.

On the upside, if they clear xxxxx, the immediate target would then be xxxxx .

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxxx to xxxxx for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxxx (subscriber version) at the end of November.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at 4300 in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxxx would set a course toward xxxxx in November and possibly xxxxx (subscriber version)  in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures remain bullish.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens Have Buy Side Surge

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 68 buys and 22 sells, which is far more signals than is usual. It compares with 11 buys and 33 sells the Friday before. This indicates a new, moderate buy side thrust. It’s not the kind of surge that comes off a significant low, but it does suggest a second wind for the rally.

1317 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 6.8% of them rendered signals on Friday. That’s almost double the signal rate of recent weeks, suggesting again, more stocks making initial moves off a minor low. It was a sign that, when reviewing the charts, I should find some interesting buy side setups.

I did, adding 7 buys to the list. I’ll start tracking those as of Monday’s opening prices. This will bring the list to 15 open picks, of which 12 will be longs, and 3 are shorts.

Including the pick that I closed as of last Monday’s open, there were 9 picks total last week, of which 6 were longs and 3 were shorts. The average gain was 8.5% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days.

The table and charts of open picks are below (subscriber version only).

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

 

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Relentless Rally Reaches Likely Reaction Point

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Yes, a likely reaction point. But that may not mean much. Cycle projections point higher still (subscriber version only)..

The 10-12 month cycle has entered an up phase, with ideally xx-xx (subscriber version only) months to run. There’s no projection on the S&P yet but the Qs look xxxxx friendly.

The 6 month cycle is early in an up phase. There’s no projection yet. The 13 week cycle is in an up phase. The projection now points to xxxx xxxx down from xxxx (subscriber version), last week.

Short term cycles didn’t bother with their down phases that were due. They’re trending. There’s an 8 week cycle projection of xxxxx.

On the third rail chart support is around xxxxx on Monday, rising to xxxxx on Friday. They’d need to break those to have any shot at any downside.

Trend resistance is rising, starting the week at approximately xxxxx and rising to around xxxxx.

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxxx to xxxxx for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxxx at the end of November.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at 4300 in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxxx would set a course toward xxxxx in November and possibly xxxxx in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures remain bullish.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens Yield More Sells than Buys Again

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 11 buys and 33 sells. That compares with 15 buys and 40 sells the Friday before.

1238 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 3.5% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal. Despite the preponderance of sell signals, there’s no evidence of broad downside thrust. It is just a narrow pullback/consolidation.

Picks are summarized in the table below (subscriber version only). I will bail out on one of them, XXXX, to possibly revisit at a later date. That will leave 8 on the list. Including the bailee, the list showed an average gain of 4.5% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days.

I’m again foregoing stops. This tactic has paid off recently. It doesn’t guarantee that it always will but my backtesting in the past has shown that stops don’t work. They don’t protect against gap losses, and they take out positions that subsequently recover. More often than not, it pays to wait for the rebound to minimize losses on trades that go the wrong way. The conventional wisdom about stops, like much Wall Street conventional wisdom, is wrong.

In my opinion, the way to control risk isn’t to use stops. It is to spread risk among several positions.
That way, if one takes a hit, there are enough other selections that there’s room for the ones that are going to run the right way, to do so. That should offset losses on the ones that don’t go as expected. And the ones that go the wrong way can still be maximized by using TA to the best advantage for the subsequent exit.

Of course, no trading method is perfect. There will always be losses and drawdowns. For now, these are the tactics and strategy that I’ve decided to run with. This is for informational and entertainment purposes, not individual investment advice. You must do what’s right for you.

After reviewing the charts, I saw nothing compelling. There are no new picks. I’ll sit tight with what we already have which is 5 longs and 3 shorts. The table and charts of open picks are below.

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

 

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Stock Pause That Refreshes

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Short term cycles look to be headed for a breather. But don’t expect much downside.

I must now rate the 10-12 month cycle as xxxxxxx , with a strong possibility that it has begun xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version only). The 6 month cycle is early in an up phase. The 13 week cycle is in an up phase, with an updated projection of xxxx.

Short term cycles have entered what should be consolidations lasting a couple of weeks. They may manifest as merely a slowing in the rate of advance or a trading range.

On the third rail chart the SPX broke out to a new high and continued its climb in the upper half of its short term uptrend channel. The top of the short term channel starts the week at xxxx and rises to end the week at xxxx.

Above that are multiple intermediate and long term trendlines around xxxx (subscriber version only). If broken the SPX could run to xxxx. or even xxxx..

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxx to xxxx. for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxx at the end of November (subscriber version only). .

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at xxxx in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxx would set a course toward xxxx in November and possibly xxxx in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures are in a pullback but remain generally bullish.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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More Sells Than Buys in Screen, But I Added Two Buys This Week

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 15 buys and 40 sells. That compares with 24 buys and 25 sells the Friday before.

1232 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 4.4% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal. Despite the preponderance of sell signals, there’s no evidence of broad downside thrust. This is just a narrow pullback.

Picks are summarized in the table below. 1 was closed and 7 were still open, with an average gain of 1.7% on an average holding period of 16 calendar days.

I’m again mostly foregoing stops, with one exception. My thought is that if one takes a hit, I’d look to exit subsequently. There are enough selections that risk is spread sufficiently so that I can give room for the ones that are going to run the right way, room to do so. That should offset losses on the ones that don’t go as expected.

After reviewing the charts, I chose 2 to add to the list this week. Both are buys. They’re shown on the table. All charts of the new picks and open picks are below.

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Charts

 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

 

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