Menu Close

Lee Adler’s

Lee Adler’s

Menu

Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Sell Signals Again Have The Edge From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

This Friday’s screens had 25 buys and 29 sells (including one buy on an inverse ETF). That compares with the previous Friday’s 7 buy signals and 42 sell signals. This is the third straight week with a majority of sell signals. 1344 stocks met the initial screening criteria. Only 4% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal.

We’ve had plenty of advance warnings for the current weakness.

9/13/21 But there are hints of a downturn that suggest that it’s finally time to actively consider adding shorts to the list, something that I’ve assiduously avoided for the past 18 months.

9/13/21Again this week, one of the interesting things in these signals was that 9 of them were bearish signals on fixed income ETFs. Last week it was ten. They’re not movers and not really candidates for trades, but it squares with our liquidity analysis that the bond market will be a bad place to be from here on.  

9/13/21 Likewise there were numerous sell signals on REITs. That’s another bearish sign for not just the group, but for fixed income and the stock market. I don’t like to trade REITs. They tend not to trend, but to jump around like rangebound Mexican jumping beans. But the bearish indications are beginning to coalesce into a theme that fits our outlook.

Subscription Plans

Last week I put a toe in the bearish waters with 3 shorts. I wanted to wait for a bounce to add more. The market may not be so kind as to accommodate that. When is it ever?

Meanwhile, 3 buy side picks are hanging on. I’ve adjusted the stop levels on those.

In addition, I’m adding two shorts to the list this week, XXX, and XXX, (subscriber version only) as of the 3 PM price on Monday.  Delayed entry time may or may not be a tactical winner, but with Monday morning’s broad market weakness, a mid-day bounce could give a better entry price. It’s a crapshoot, which, as always, is up to your judgment if you are watching and trading these picks.

Last week was another losing week. I did not have enough shorts, with only 3 short picks to start on Monday, and one went the wrong way.  Three more buy side picks got stopped out after 7 were stopped the week before.

Including both those stopped out and those left open, the list had an average loss of 1.1% with an average holding period of 16 days. That was slightly worse than the prior week’s loss of 0.9% with an average 18 day hold. Several weeks of small gains have been wiped out in this transitional period. I need to do better.

Charts and table of existing picks below (subscriber version only).

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

Subscription Plans

 

Go to the post

Stock Market on the Brink

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycle structures and conventional technical indicators are now on the cusp of intermediate term signals. The setups suggest that if those signals are forthcoming this week, they’ll be valid. This report illustrates what would be required to trigger those signals (subscriber version only).

All cycles are now in gear to the downside. Short term cycle projections have been reached, but a 13 week cycle projection points to xxxx (subscriber version only).  A weak bounce this week, or no bounce, would suggest that that target is still in play.

Multiple cycle channel support lines are clustered around xxxx (subscriber version only). That’s a likely place for an intermediate low to develop after one more tests or minor penetration, in the next 1-4 weeks.

On the third rail chart there’s a bit of air below xxxx (subscriber version only).  That next support line will be at xxxx on Monday, rising by 2.75 points per day (PPD) to around xxxx on Friday. However, if the market rebounds on Monday, it would be back within the uptrend channel that has continued the move since May. That line rises from xxxx to around xxxx this week.

On the weekly chart, the market is resting on the previously broken long term uptrend line at xxxx (subscriber version only). If the week ends below that, then a test of the support region around xxxx would become likely over the next month. If those break, it would suggest major top formation. Conversely, if either the current trendline, or the cluster below, holds, then the uptrend would still be intact.

The long term cycle projections of xxxx to xxxx (subscriber version only) are still viable, for the time being, with highs due between now and next year. That outlook could change this week.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 needs to break xxxx (subscriber version only) in September to signal an end to the uptrend.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish. For now.

Cycle screening measures broke the intermediate term bullish trend, setting it back to neutral. But the aggregate measure hit a line that suggests a short term bottom. If it breaks, then the bigger picture turns bearish.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

Lots of Sell Signals Again From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

This Friday’s screens had just 7 buys and 42 sells. That compares with the previous Friday’s 8 buy signals and 48 sell signals. 1211 stocks met the initial screening criteria. 96% of stocks are either already moving in the direction of the most recent signal, whether up, down or sideways, mostly sideways. As was the case last week, there’s still no real sign of thrust in either direction.

Subscription Plans

But there are hints of a downturn that suggest that it’s finally time to actively consider adding shorts to the list, something that I’ve assiduously avoided for the past 18 months.

Again this week, one of the interesting things in these signals was that 9 of them were bearish signals on fixed income ETFs. Last week it was ten. They’re not movers and not really candidates for trades, but it squares with our liquidity analysis that the bond market will be a bad place to be.

Likewise there were numerous sell signals on REITs. That’s another bearish sign for not just the group, but for fixed income and the stock market. I don’t like to trade REITs. They tend not to trend, but to jump around like rangebound Mexican jumping beans. But the bearish indications are beginning to coalesce into a theme that fits our outlook.

Healthcare was another theme that kept cropping up on the sell side.

Despite all the sell signals, I didn’t see many charts that looked like a setup for a big decline right here. I did find a couple that were interesting, however, and am taking a bite on xxx, xxx, and xxx (subscriber version only).

Maybe after the next bounce there will be more obvious shorts. I’ll put a toe in the water here, leaving the list balanced. I want to be patient until I see a clearer path to the downside before adding more shorts.

Last week was not a good week. Seven buy side picks got stopped out. Only two of them had gains. Including both those stopped out and those left open, the list had an average loss of 0.9% with an average holding period of 18 days. That wiped out the prior week’s 1.5% average gain on an average holding period of 12 calendar days.

The premature failure of buy signals is a sign that the market is probably reversing. It’s time to start looking for shorts more actively. We’ve been avoiding them until now.

Charts and table of existing picks below (subscriber version only).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

Subscription Plans

 

Go to the post

Nothing Has Happened Yet

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The 10-12 month cycle has now signaled that the expected top in this time frame is forming. But with longer cycles still in strong up phases, I’ll start with the assumption that the 10-12 month cycle will stay flat. That would only suggest a decline to xxxx (subscriber version only).

The 6 month cycle down phase is also under way, but it too could stay flat. The 13 week cycle, which had been trending, is uncertain. It’s due for a xxxx (subscriber version only) this week.

Go to the post

Lots of Sell Signals But No New Picks From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

Lee Adler

This Friday’s screens had just 8 buy signals and 48 sell signals. Despite all the sell signals, the charts were messy and uninteresting from a swing trade perspective either way. The market has had no thrust on the upside, and still none on the downside. 1268 stocks met the initial screening criteria. 96% of stocks are either already moving in the direction of the most recent signal, whether up, down or sideways, mostly sideways.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

Subscription Plans

The only thing really interesting in these signals was that ten of them were fixed income ETFs. They’re not movers and not really candidates for trades, but that sure stinks of bear you know what.

To put things in technical parlance, Friday’s charts were a “mishmosh.” Despite all the sell signals, I didn’t see anything that looked like a setup for a big decline right here. Maybe after the next bounce, but not now. I want to be patient until I see a clearer path to the downside. Right now, there’s no path either way.

Already open picks (list and current performance in subscriber version) had an average gain of 1.5% with an average holding period of 12 days. That’s down from the prior week’s 2.5% on an average holding period of 15 calendar days.

The picks that I added a couple of weeks ago have done fine. The ones last week… not so much. I’ve added stops to all of them. With no new picks this week, there are still 13 open picks. All are again longs. Charts below (subscriber version only).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

Subscription Plans

 

Go to the post

Here’s Why “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” Won’t Work This Year

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

From a time perspective, the 10-12 month cycle ideally should be in a top phase. But it surpassed its last cycle projection of 4440 so it is probably in trending mode. Both the 6 month cycle and the 13 week cycles appear to be trending.

Short term cycles are in up phases. The 4 week cycle is currently the only one where it’s possible to make a projection. It’s xxxx (subscriber version only).

On the weekly chart, 3-4 year cycle momentum exploded to its strongest level since 2014. This is another sign that the market could trend higher for longer. In the short term, there’s a trendline convergence around xxxx (subscriber version only). that is likely to be the target of this move.

With the market beginning to create a little separation from the trendline at 4400, the long term cycle projections of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version only) are looking more and more realistic, with highs due between now and next year.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 ended August at or above long term trend resistance around 4500. This suggests more upside.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures strengthened. This confirms the trend and suggests another extension.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Tuesday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

Chart Picks – 8 New Picks From Last Week’s Swing Trade Screens

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

Subscription Plans

This Friday’s screens had 46 buy signals and 5 sell signals. Two of the sell signals were on inverse ETFs, making the actual score 48 to 3 in favor of the bulls. This still indicates little thrust for the market as a whole. But it’s more than last week and it shows even less drag. Given that 1270 stocks met the initial screening criteria, 96% of stocks are either already moving in the direction of the most recent signal, which is to say, up.

The charts that I liked enough to add to the list on the long side as of Monday’s open are xxx, xxx, xxx, xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, (and similar but one is enough), xxxx, and xxxx (in subscriber version only). Charts below (subscriber version).

Previous picks, including those closed last week and still open on Friday, had an average gain of 2.5% with an average holding period of 15 days. That’s little changed from the prior week’s 2.3% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days.

Three picks were stopped out last week and one I set to be covered on the open last Monday. That left 5 open picks. All are again longs, after having a token short or two for a couple of weeks. All 8 new picks are also longs. After a couple of months of few picks, we’re finally getting back to the normal complement of 12-16.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

Subscription Plans

 

Go to the post

Here are the Keys to More Upside as Cycles Get Back In Sync

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles are in gear to the upside, but there are no projections yet. A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due by xxxx (subscriber version only). But the indicators appear to be in trending mode for that cycle. This could turn into an epic blowoff, or just fizzle out.

Either way, we need to be on our toes. If 10-12 month cycle indicators and the market averages break this week or next, it should be a top. But my operating assumption must still be that the trend will continue until a clear break. Anticipating such a break is a bad idea. The market gives no awards for being early. Just don’t be too late. Our antenna is up.

Subscription Plans

The 6 month cycle doesn’t appear to be set up to allow for an extended decline. But a short, sharp break is possible at any time in September. We’ll be on the lookout for the signs.

The 13 week cycle appears to have begun a new up phase ideally due to last xxxx xxxx. (subscriber version only)

On the third rail chart, a cluster of support lines starts the week at xxxx  and rises to around xxxx (subscriber version only) at the end of the week. There’s a second cluster of parallel rising trendlines about 40 points below that that should mark support if the first set breaks. The market would need to break both those to start even a semblance of a reversal.

On the weekly chart, with the market beginning to create a little separation from the trendline at xxxx (subscriber version only), the long term cycle projections of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version only) are looking more and more realistic, with highs due between xxxx xxxx and xxxx xxxx.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 look set to end August at or above long term trend resistance around 4500. If it does that, it would suggest more upside.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures strengthened. This confirms the trend and suggests another extension.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

Chart Picks – 4 New Picks From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

Lee Adler

This Friday’s screens had 27 buy signals and 3 sell signals. This indicates no thrust for the market as a whole. But it shows even less drag. Given that over 1200 stocks met the initial screening criteria, most stocks are either trending or drifting in a range.

I did like a number of the setups, and will add 4 picks to the list on the long side as of Monday’s open. These are xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, and xxxx. Charts below (shown in subscriber report).

Previous open picks ended the week with an average gain of 2.3% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. Two picks were stopped out last week. One will be closed as of the opening price on Monday. That leaves 4 open picks. Three are longs. One is a short.

Get the newest picks and review their charts and those of existing picks in today’s report. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

Subscription Plans

Go to the post

Here are the Keys as the Stock Market Trend is Intact, But on Edge

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles still have an upward bias. But a 10-12 month cycle high is now ideally due within xxxx xxxx (in subscriber version).  The next sharp break to the downside should mark the xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) of the 10-12 month and 6 month cycles.

The 13 week cycle appears to have made a xxxx (subscriber version) last week. That could spell xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) for what should be the final days of the 10-12 month cycle up phase.

Subscription Plans

On the third rail chart a key intermediate term channel and a long term channel held. Trend support rises from xxxx-xxxx (in subscriber report), with a second support line just below that. Both would need to be broken to signal reversal.

On the weekly chart, xxxx is a very important level this week. If they close below it, it should mark the beginning of top formation for this cycle. However, it would be unlikely to be the highest high. Long term cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx with highs due between xxxx and xxxx (subscribers only).

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 would need to end August below 4200 to signal a potential reversal of the uptrend. If the SPX clears long term trend resistance around xxxx, the target would rise to 4600.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures weakened but the intermediate remains tenuously bullish. Weakness this week could reverse that. Strength will confirm the trend and suggest another extension.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post