Gold’s consolidation is going according to our expectations, but there are risk. Here are the levels where it getts dice. Meanwhile, we’re still swinging with our mining picks.
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When the Fed pumps $100 billion per month into Primary Dealer trading accounts, we’re not dealing with a level playing field. The Fed has sharply tilted that playing field to the upside. Under the circumstances, meltups become the norm. A whole lot of people fail to understand that and fight the Fed and the tape all the way.
And so it is today. I failed to roll up long SPY call trades last week, not because I thought the market would go down, but because I thought it wouldn’t go up fast enough in the short run.
I was wrong. It’s psychologically difficult to be bullish enough. It’s not enough to be bullish. If you’re not wildly bullish, you’re wrong. The Fed has created a crazy funhouse, and we must view the market in that context.
Here’s how the current funhouse tableau looks from that perspective, with a specific tip on how to trade it.
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It ain’t rocket science. The Fed drives liquidity and stock prices are the first order effect because that’s how monetary policy transmission is designed. These charts show you the way!
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Federal revenues softened in December. That could be just a blip, or it could be the first signs of a looming recession. It’s bullish if it is, and bullish if it isn’t. Here’s why everything is bullish.
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The Fed has monetized 99 percent of the Federal Debt since it started Not QE. That’s been bullish. Here’s what to look for and how to position, going forward.
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Gold is in a normal post breakout pullback. While some of our mining picks were stopped out with small profits, there are still a few left and I’ll add back more if the setups are there. Here’s what we need to be watching for.
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If the glove don’t fit, you must not commit.
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There are growing signs in the banking system that the Fed will lose control, and this won’t end well.
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Gold has broken out of a nice high base, and threatens another major breakout. We continue to swing with our mining picks. Here’s how it looks.
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These signs suggest that an intermediate top may be forming, but don’t get too bearish yet.
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