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Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late

Lee Adler

That’s right. Inflation is dead. But it doesn’t matter, because the Fed won’t pull the stake out of its heart until it’s too late. I’ll get to that below (in the subscriber report, non subscribers, click here to read this report) but first, let’s talk about the interest rate bogeyman. It’s a fake issue, a diversionary tactic. Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Interest rates don’t matter in terms of policy effects on the markets. They are merely a meter of monetary tightness. That tightness is Fed policy, and market interest rates, T-bills in particular, continue to post warning signs about that day in and day out. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The Street and its captured handmaiden media mouthpieces keep talking about the Fed raising interest rates. But the Fed has never actually raised rates. It has simply rubber stamped the increases that have already happened in the money markets to the meaningless Fed Funds target rate. And it hasn’t done a very good job of keeping up with market increases. Non subscribers, click here to read this report. 

The evidence shows, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, that the market keeps outrunning the Fed’s rubber stamp. Regardless of all the bullish speculation on when the Fed will pause, or slow down its rate increases, or whatever it is that the Street wants investors to believe, the fact is that monetary conditions are still tightening, and will continue to tighten. And that will keep a lid on the markets. Rallies will continue to make lower highs, to be followed by lower lows. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The best meter of those conditions are short term Treasury bill rates, and those are still rising. This simple measure of the market shows clearly that the demand for short term funding continues to be greater than the supply of ready cash. Last week, both the 13 week bill rate and the 4 week bill rate hit new highs, as the Treasury repeatedly came to market with massive new T-bill offerings. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

But that’s only the beginning of this horror story. The rest is in the report, including the evidence that inflation is already dead, and why it doesn’t matter. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

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Golden Surprise

Lee Adler

Gold has broken out of a base that has a conventional measured move target that suggests a bigger move ahead. So do cycle projections. In the mining sector, I’ve added two picks to the swing list.

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Non-subscribers, click here for access.

 

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Few Good Longs, No Good Shorts

Lee Adler

For the week ended November 11, there were 173 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 19 with second or third sell signals, and one of those was a bear ETF, so the net score would have been 174 to 18. That is as lopsided as I’ve ever seen. There were too many buys to visually review all, and we already had longs on the list so I started with the sells, and then looked at as many buys as I had time for.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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In looking at the charts with sell signals, I saw only one that looked remotely interesting.  It was a Brazilian airline preferred stock. No thanks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Among the sampling of buys that I reviewed virtually all had already moved to just below resistance. Not ideal entry points. I found two that I liked enough to add to the list, as shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed

Lee Adler

Suddenly the whole technical picture looks bullish. It makes me think that they’ve repealed Rule Number One.

But they haven’t of course. There may be enough technical momentum to keep the rally going for a bit longer, and cycle projections point that way. But ultimately, the reality of ever tightening liquidity must prevail.

The question is when. Cycle analysis says be on the lookout at any time over the next 7 weeks.  If all goes according to Hoyle, we will be able to read it in the technical indicators.

Here are the current price and time projections for where to look for the highs to develop.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts

Lee Adler

Obviously, no market moves in a straight line, and this one is no exception. The technical analysis says the rally in Treasuries will have legs, albeit likely to be short. Then the underlying forces of supply and demand, with constantly more Treasury supply and limited or even diminishing demand, with a severely weakened Primary Dealer system at its core, will rear its ugly head once again.

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Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Despite the seeming moderation of headline inflation data, the conditions cited previously in these comments remain in effect. The speculation that the Fed might ease policy on the basis of this week’s inflation news is useless. Markets move on the fact of Fed policy change, not on the basis of Wall Street promoting such changes. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

For perspective, here’s a look back at key points of the summaries of these Primary Dealer position updates that I’ve posted this year. We start with the most recent… and follow with a look at their current positioning, and the reasons why they present unprecedented risk for investors. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

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Gold Slot Racing Leading Nowhere

Lee Adler

Gold engaged in a bit of rangebound slot racing last week, but has so far shown little sign that it’s on the verge of breaking out of its trading range. Positive divergences in a couple of cycle indicators suggest accumulation is under way, however… This report explains what that means. Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, for the mining stocks, cycle analysis shows that another strong weekly performance has kept all 3 cycles on the buy side. The fact that 6 month cycles have been positive for weeks is normally a sign that the trend is headed up. But in this case, it has only gone sideways. The longer this goes on, the more problematic it is for the longer term outlook. The stocks in the sector need to start breaking out of this trading range, or the next move in a month or two will be down. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Chart Picks – Given the good numbers from the cycle status screens, I was again looking for good buy side setups on the charts produced by the screens. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The final numbers from the swing trade pick screens weren’t bad, 18 final buys to 5 final sells. But again, on reviewing the charts of the stocks with multiple buy signals, I … Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks –100% Buys – Yikes!

Lee Adler

For the week ended November 4, there were 35 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 48 with second or third sell signals. I visually reviewed the charts, and saw mostly rangebound whipsaw signals. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were 2 charts that I liked enough on the buy side to add to the list.  I added those without stops. There were a couple on the short side that I wanted to pull the trigger on, but there was something about each of the setups that I didn’t like. So I chose not to pick those. Non-subscribers click here for access.

3 shorts and 1 buy hit their stops last week. Including the new picks, that leaves the list with 7 picks, all longs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Yikes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks picks are shown on the table below (subscriber version) with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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What To Do About an Anxiety Ridden, Conflicted Market

Lee Adler

A number of technical signs say that the bulls have the upper hand here. But those signs aren’t uniform. And I don’t trust them because they violate the First Commandment of Investing. Thou shalt not fight the Fed. Prepare to meet thy maker if thou dost.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-  Multiple cycles look to be headed in xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx over the next few months. xxxxxx the probability of a near term breakout xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 10-12 month cycle has ideally entered a xxxxx phase lasting through December. Any strength this week would indicate xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx that could carry back to the xxxxx-xxxxxx range before a xxxx in this cycle. Non subscribers click here to access.

On the other hand, any xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx this week would suggest that this cycle is topping out now. Non subscribers click here to access.

Meanwhile, 6 month cycle indicators are on the razor’s edge of confirming that xxxxxx xxxxx xxx x xx. Any xxxxxx this week should trigger clear xxxxxxx signals. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   A weekly close above xxxx would break the 6 month cycle line, signaling an up phase in that cycle, with an initial target of around xxxx on this chart. Failure to be clear of xxxx at the end of the week would suggest that the 6 month cycle down phase remains intact. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Trend resistance will begin November at xxxx, after it appears that the SPX will end October above expected resistance around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The cycle screening aggregate plunged into negative territory, but it did not break the bullish short term or intermediate term patterns. The market would need to weaken further this week for that to happen. None of the negative divergences have formed that typically precede a significant downturn and moving average and cumulative versions of these indicators remain mildly bullish.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October

Lee Adler

In Part 1, we saw a rebound in withholding tax collections after 3 down months. October also saw a very strong gain in individual estimated taxes, probably late filers, lamenting how much money they had made. It’s consistent with the strength in withholding. Corporate taxes were lower, but that’s meaningless since so few corporations file in October.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Excise tax collections were up for a second straight month, an indication of strong retail consumption. That’s a fly that keeps landing in the ointment of the idea that the economy is contracting, or even slowing. All signs point to a strengthening economy, and that is very bad news against a tightening liquidity backdrop. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report explains and illustrates the data with a couple of mind blowing charts. It adds up to one of the worst outlooks I’ve ever seen for the bond market, and that’s saying something considering how bod the market has been for the past 27 months. The same data that I cover in these reports has been correctly bearish on the bond market for that whole period. And all of that is terrible for stocks too. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report shows you what this real time, real data, means for investing and trading strategy and tactics. In other words how to stay out of trouble in this treacherous bear market. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Signs of an Intermediate Bottom in Gold Falter

Lee Adler

Apologies for the late posting. This report was written on November 1, pre market. It fell through the cracks in the between two other posts. Not that you missed anything!

Gold made a double bottom that looked consistent with the expected 13 week cycle low due in this time window, but over a week later it has failed to show any sign of thrust. A daily close above xxxx is needed to get anything going on the upside. Otherwise gold will remain at risk of a breakdown into the xxxxs.

The gold mining stocks’ swing trade chart pick screens produced 26 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday, versus zero sells. That means that 52% of the screened stocks produced buy signals versus none on the sell side. So I reviewed the 26 charts, expecting to finally find a few to list as buys for Monday morning.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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