Lee AdlerThe pop in the miners looks wildly bullish on the charts.
Scheduled liquidity data has told us for a couple of months that October would be bullish. That played out like a charm in terms of the technical analysis last week. We also know that liquidity only gets more bullish this week. The technical picture confirms that outlook. We must give the bullish factors the benefit of the doubt.
My stock pick screens confirm that. I’m adding 7 picks from those screens this week, 5 long and 2 short. That will leave 13 open picks, including 11 longs, and the 2 new shorts.
Four chart picks were stopped out last week. Needless to say, all were shorts. The two older picks had nice gains, partly offset by small losses in the short side picks from last week.
The list performance improved sharply last week as the average holding time increased a bit. Gains doubled from an average 3.2% to an average of 6.4%. The average holding period last week was 20 calendar days, up from 17 days the previous week. The average holding period has ranged from 16 to 22 days, or just over two to three weeks.
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Past performance doesn’t indicate future results. There’s always risk of loss. Chart picks are for informational purposes only. These reports are geared toward professional investors and experienced individual traders. Do your own due diligence before trading.
Tax collections have leveled off at a negative year to year rate. The Fed has gone to Congress begging for fiscal support for the US economy, as a result. Without a deal to raise spending, the economy will continue to languish, and the Fed will continue to print money to support the markets.
Ironically, if and when a new pandemic relief spending program is enacted, that would be bearish.
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Primary dealers have maintained huge and heavily leveraged long bond positions. They are only lightly hedged. Just today, the bond market is threatening to reverse the long term downtrend in yields/uptrend in prices. It’s bad news for the bond market, and for the system as a whole. And that includes stocks.
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Here’s where to look for gold’s constructive consolidation to turn up. Meanwhile, I’ve added another pick to our list of miners.
Mixed cyclicality has led to a rangebound market. There’s no sign that that will change this week. But look out if it does!
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The outlook for the most of the rest of October is bullish. But it’s not an endless bull any more.
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The setup is propitious for a short term low risk entry. There are a few nice looking plays.
An up day on Monday would confirm that the short term downtrend is broken. This report gives you the key support and resistance levels, and what to expect if they’re broken. I’ve added 8 chart picks, 5 longs and 3 shorts, to take advantage of a move either way.
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We have known for a couple of months that there would be a mountain of Treasury supply hitting the market at the end of September. We also knew that Fed QE would be far from adequate to absorb this supply. So I have expected something bearish for stocks at the end of September. This could spill over into the first week of October.
But then things get hairy for bears, with potentially happy days for bulls. Unfortunately, we have a little problem this week. There’s no visibility. We don’t know what they have planned for the next couple weeks. That’s different from usual, where we can usually see ahead for a week or two because we know the Fed’s QE schedule, and also pretty much know how much Treasury supply to expect.
Now, thanks to the exigencies of the past pandemiconomic US Treasury fund raising back in March and April, we don’t have that luxury on Treasury supply, which forces us to surmise some things.
Here they are.
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