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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Letting It Ride

Lee Adler

Current screens yielded 119 short-term buys and 520 short-term sells. That’s flipped from the week before as rangebound whipsaws dominate the action. After applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 16 buys and 69 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I’m not interested in buys at this late stage of the cycle, especially in view of the warning signs in the liquidity measures. I reviewed the sell side charts. Some of the setups were interesting, but I prefer to wait for more signs of a market top being in place before adding more shorts. So with a big list already, I prefer to sit and wait for it to shrink via hitting stops. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of October 21 closing prices, the list had an average gain of 5.3% down from +5.8% the previous week, on an average holding period of 25 calendar days, up from an average of 26 days. Picks closed in September had an average gain of 1.6% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Picks closed so far in October had an average gain of +2.6% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit

Lee Adler

This week I looked at the issue of bank capital and its relation to bond prices. This is another fly in the ointment that is poised to blow up, especially after Monday’s rout in the bond market. Between this fragility, the extreme extension of stock prices versus bank deposits and money supply, and the possibility of disintermediation pulling deposits out of banks, there’s xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx  xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

One other issue is the potential for a sharp reduction in T-bill issuance in November and December. That would xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Bond buyers, including dealers, would need to either repo their Treasury coupon purchases, liquidate other assets, or take on when-issued short positions against future issuance. Any of those actions could further destabilize the bond market, which xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

On the surface, it appears that there’s still adequate liquidity to support the rally, but this thesis is now stretched to the limit. I’m still reluctant to xxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. I would want to xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx long positions, and definitely not xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx As for bonds, I’m back to xxxxxx xxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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For More Upside

Lee Adler

There’s no sign of a top yet in the technical or cyclical data. Cycle projections point to more upside this year. This report shows exactly how much more. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – The 6-month cycle has a new projection of xxxx due in xxxxxxx. However, in the short run, the 13-week cycle should be xxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Its high was ideally due xxxxxxx xx. The 13-week cycle projection still points to xxxxxxxxxx. 6-month and 10-12 month cycles should be xxxxx in up phases, which should xxxxx shorter term down phases xxxxx.

Cycle Screening Measures – These numbers remained positive, xxxxxx the uptrend, and xxxxxxxxx enough for the xxxxxxxxxxxx. There’s no sign of  xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.

Third Rail – The market stayed within its uptrend channels last week. To create even the beginning of a short-term reversal would require a daily close below xxxxx. On the other hand, clearing xxxx this week would open the way for a quick move to xxxx.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – The market has room to run to xxxx now, and xxxxx at year end. The 3-4 year cycle indicator has edged to the xxxx side, which suggests that the beginning of xxxxxx is at hand. Typically, xx year cycle tops take xxx months to build and break down. That allows for xxxxxxxxx.

Monthly Chart – The market is approaching its upper channel bound at xxxx, now, rising to around xxxx in November and xxxx in December.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold a la Mode

Lee Adler

Gold has gone into trending mode and our mining picks are swinging higher, so I a few more to the list that are just staring to move. This report shows you where this monster move appears to be headed.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Liquidity Says, The End Is Nigh, Almost

Lee Adler

Market rallies continue to be supported by adequate liquidity, but there are chinks in the armor. Nothing outright says “Sell now,” but there are warning signs that say, xxxx xxxx now. It’s probably too late. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

One item to watch closely is repo usage. Repo growth is absolutely necessary in this market to fund an uptrend in stock prices. And Repo has been dropping like a rock since peaking at the end of September. So far, there’s just a break of the short-term trend, which isn’t significant in the big picture, but it could be if it continues, or backs and fills for a while and then breaks down. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

We also need to watch the Fed’s RRP slush fund as it approaches zero. That will become one less bullish prop for the markets. It has been a form of deferred QE, or strategic QE reserve, stored up from the old days when the Fed pumped so much money into the system, $2.5 trillion of it wasn’t able to be deployed. Now that RRP money is almost all gone, absorbed by a couple years of Treasury issuance. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Meanwhile, total money is still surging, so there’s still plenty of cash around. That’s a reflection of the market generating profits, and money growth, on its own. But it’s not a matter of sufficiency. It’s a matter of willingness to deploy, and that’s at an all time high. The question is how much farther can that willingness be stretched as prices rise higher and higher. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

The markets are creating money with no help from the Fed. That’s strictly a matter of sentiment, or call it animal spirits. And that can change. That change is what we are looking for in this liquidity data. Right now the markets are especially vulnerable to sentiment changing. Stock prices are more extended versus money supply than at any point in history. Which means that the risk of a sentiment change is higher than at any point in history. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

For now, the stock market remains a xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. The bond market has probably already made xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx, but it will be a jagged path that will depend in part on the supply schedule. Yields began to soar as bond prices plunged in recent weeks. But thanks in part to light Treasury coupon issuance this week, ……… Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Loads of Buy Signals with Good Setups

Lee Adler

Current screens yielded 488 short-term buys and 174 short-term sells. After applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 92 buys and 29 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I reviewed the charts. The sell side setups were problematic and I chose to add no shorts. There were numerous, solid setups on the buy side, and I chose to add 7 and stopped about half way through the list. With these additions, there will be 23 open picks to start this week which is more than enough. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of October 14 closing prices, the list had an average gain of 5.8%, down from + 7% the previous week, on an average holding period of 26 calendar days, up from an average of 25 days.  Picks closed in September had an average gain of 1.6% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days.  Picks closed so far in October had an average gain of +5.2% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I assume risk management through small position sizes and diversification. Your approach may differ. Non-subscribers click here for access.

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Round Number Syndrome

Lee Adler

The market is closing in on the round number target of 6000 that we had foreseen as early as last February. At the same time, there are early signs that we don’t want to squeeze the lemon too hard. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Short term cycles turned up last week. There’s a projection of xxxx on the 6-8 week cycles. A 13-week cycle high is ideally due xxxxxxxx xx. The 13-week cycle projection still points to xxxxxx.

However, the 3-4 year cycle indicator has edged to the sell side. That does not mean that a decline is imminent, but it suggests that the beginning of top formation is at hand. Typically, 4 year cycle tops take xxxxx months to build and break down. That allows for xxxxxx xxxxxx in the xxxx term.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Says, Not So Fast!

Lee Adler

Gold looks like it has enough gas in the tank for one more rally. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

So I have added new mining picks to swing. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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We’re Now Week to Week for this Bull

Lee Adler

Market rallies continue to be well supported by adequate liquidity, but the end is drawing closer. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

There are forces that could begin to hamper the price uptrend around the end of October. The first one is a large Treasury coupon issuance that will suck up liquidity at the end of the month. It will be interesting to see to what extent buyers use repo to fund the absorption of that paper. If they opt not to on balance, prices will fall and yields will rise. That could lead to problems for other asset prices. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Meanwhile, the issuance of T-bills will moderate because the Treasury has excess cash on hand. T-bills serve as perfect collateral for repo borrowing that supports both economic activity and asset price speculation. They are instantly convertible into money. As long as animal spirits are raging, speculators and others will borrow against those bills and the money will get spent on goods, services, and asset speculation. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

We have seen that the more T-bill issuance the merrier. We might guess then, that any reduction in bill issuance might hamper that speculative impulse. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

A big source of money supporting the stock market rally has been the Fed’s RRP slush fund facility. It has been steadily spent down for the past 18 months. It rebuilt by a couple hundred billion at the end of the third quarter (window dressing), and hasn’t dropped back as sharply as I guessed last week it would. There’s still around $325 billion in that facility. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

That’s money that can be used to fund asset purchases, including Treasuries and stocks. If that facility xxxxxx xxxxxxxx, it means that money is being used to xxxxxxx xxxxxxx, other xxxxxx xxxxxxxx, xxx stocks. We have long seen a correlation between declining RRPs outstanding and rising stock prices as holders of the RRPs use the money to buy stocks at the margin. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

At some point that facility will run dry, either in absolute terms, or when the last holders decide that they’re not going anywhere. That will happen in xxxx months. When it does, it should be bearish. For asset prices to continue rising, investors, dealers, and traders will need to fund purchases out of other cash and borrowing. With the constant barrage of Treasury supply it will be a tall order to maintain rising prices. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Finally, there’s the issue of whether stocks are overbought relative to total money. In terms of bank deposits only, the answer is xxxxxx. But in terms of total available money, it’s xxxxxxxxx. It was in June, but that has xxxxxxx. So we’re waiting for a more definitive sign that animal spirits are xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Given the degrees of extension that we’ve seen in the past 6 months, any rollover in these measures now is likely to signal a major market peak. We’re not there yet, but it is week to week. I’ll keep you updated when the first signs appear.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Lots of Sell Signals Again

Lee Adler

As of October 7 closing prices, the list had an average gain of 7.0% down from + 9.9% the previous week, on an average holding period of 25 calendar days, down from an average of 28 days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Current screens yielded 228 short-term buys and an incredible 453 short-term sells. After applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 48 buys and 104 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I reviewed the charts. Setups on both sides were meh. I only found 1 pick on each side that I liked enough to add to the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

3 picks hit stops since our last look. 2 will be closed at today’s open. I am letting the rest of the existing picks ride, with added or adjusted stops in some cases. Including the new picks, that will leave 16 open picks. I assume risk management through small position sizes and diversification. Your approach may differ. Non-subscribers click here for access.

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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