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The Treasury is burning through cash at a rate that assures destruction by mid summer. Once the TGA hits that level, the debt ceiling must be lifted—or the U.S. government will default. This is the moment I refer to as DOAD: Do A Deal or Die.
Most analysts treat the debt ceiling as a legislative drama. But it’s actually a fuse. And the real damage happens after it’s defused—because the market is standing at the edge of a cliff. A Liquidity Cliff. And once the debt limit goes away, the market will fall off it.