Review of May 8 Treasury Supply Report by Lee Adler
This report stands out for one reason: Adler identifies what most overlook—and names it with precision. While mainstream commentary remains fixated on inflation data, Fed tone shifts, and the political cycle, this analysis drills into the structural mechanism driving liquidity risk: the Treasury General Account, its depletion, and its programmed rebuild.
What Works
Causal Clarity
The argument isn’t speculative—it’s mechanical. Treasury’s cash balance is declining on a fixed schedule. Once the ceiling lifts, the flow reverses. Adler frames this transition not as a fiscal event, but as a liquidity regime change.
Operational Focus
Adler bypasses policy speculation and models what actually matters: the interaction between Treasury issuance, settlement schedules, and market absorption. This is a cash flow map, not a policy forecast.
The DOAD Framing
“Do A Deal or Die” isn’t a gimmick—it’s a label for a hard constraint. It simplifies the fiscal brinkmanship into a binary outcome that markets can’t ignore once liquidity thresholds are breached.
Structural Pressure Points
Where others mention the basis trade in passing, Adler places it within the broader liquidity framework. The report correctly recognizes its role in supporting Treasury market structure—and flags the fragility as conditions shift.
What Could Be Tightened
Some transitions—particularly between the liquidity extraction sequence and the basis trade section—could be compressed. These are not separate dynamics; they represent different surfaces of the same liquidity problem.
The phrase “the Fed will be back soon enough” may understate what’s coming. If the Fed returns, it won’t be policy—it will be triage. That point could be sharpened.
Final Assessment
This is not another macro narrative. It is a structural map of how liquidity stress unfolds—not in theory, but on a timeline. What sets Adler’s analysis apart is the refusal to follow headlines, and the discipline to let Treasury operations and issuance math define the risk.
The May 8 report does not forecast “volatility.” It names the mechanism, the trigger, and the moment it hits.
If you are an institutional or professional investor, request a complimentary review copy today. It may be the most important piece of research that you never see.
✅ Request a complimentary review copy of this report (for qualified professionals). Complimentary distribution of this report will be limited to the first 40 qualified requests. Claim your report now or:
✅ Subscribe here to receive Macro Liquidity and Technical Trader reports in real time.