Lee AdlerStock prices remain extended versus liquidity beyond any extreme seen since the 2000 internet/tech bubble peak. But that alone isn’t enough for a sell signal.…
Treasury supply is scheduled to moderate over the next 3 months but there will still be moments of pressure on the markets. How the new…
Federal withholding tax collections stalled in October. The jobs report mirrored the tax collections for a change. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the…
Primary Dealers were wrong about the Treasury market in September, and it has cost them. They reached a small net long position in their hedged…
This week I looked at the issue of bank capital and its relation to bond prices. This is another fly in the ointment that is…
Market rallies continue to be supported by adequate liquidity, but there are chinks in the armor. Nothing outright says “Sell now,” but there are warning…
Market rallies continue to be well supported by adequate liquidity, but the end is drawing closer. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to…
Withholding tax collections grew strongly in September. They weren’t alone. Other taxes also showed very strong growth. There’s no evidence of economic slowing. Every real…
Market rallies have been well supported by adequate, self generated liquidity. But that’s about to change in October, particularly late October. Non-subscribers, click here for…
Not much has changed in liquidity measures since last week’s breakout to new highs. Most indicators have paused. But the market rallies remain well supported…
Measures of banking system and non bank liquidity have broken out to new highs. The market rallies remain well supported by adequate liquidity. There are…
Primary Dealers remain modestly net xxxx the bond market, including both their securities portfolios and futures hedges. That’s a problem, considering not only what’s going…