Lee AdlerThe chart of combined foreign central bank holdings and RRPs with the Fed continues to plunge in opposition to the US market rallies. The charts show that foreigners continue run from the US.
The countdown to a U.S. liquidity cliff is narrowing. Treasury cash is still being drained aggressively, and while estimated tax inflows on June 15 provided a brief lift, outflows have already resumed. The illusion of calm may persist through xxx xxxxxx, but underlying conditions suggest a serious funding shock will emerge by xxxxxxxx xx or sooner.
Here’s the data, the charts, and the analysis guiding us through the weeks ahead.
The countdown to a U.S. liquidity cliff is accelerating. This report lays out the critical data and underlying forces pushing markets toward that cliff—seemingly with no awareness or care. Many will go over. We’ll be prepared to stop short.
Here’s the data, the charts, and the analysis guiding us through the weeks ahead.
Withholding tax collections rose year-over-year as of June 2, but the underlying trend has been weakening since December. Despite a short-term rebound, the muted bounce points to recession risk, especially given disruptions from tariffs.
The Treasury’s aggressive T-bill paydowns have acted as synthetic QE, injecting liquidity into the financial system and fueling a powerful stock market rally since April. This has all been foreseeable, and has played out as forecast. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is now declining rapidly, and that will lead to big problems.
Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.
This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.
Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.
This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.
This report outlines the dangerous game now unfolding: artificial liquidity abundance from Treasury debt limit management policy, masking the structural change just ahead.
The Treasury is burning through cash at a rate that assures destruction by mid summer. Once the TGA hits that level, the debt ceiling must be lifted—or the U.S. government will default. This is the moment I refer to as DOAD: Do A Deal or Die.
Subscribers, click here to download the report. April’s tax data shows slowing revenue growth, stable trends in key categories, and strong tariff growth. But the…
The U.S. Treasury primary market is showing structural stress disguised as stability. Dealer participation is masking fading real demand.
Subscribers, click here to download the report. The illusion of plentiful liquidity is about to evaporate. The apparent pool will suddenly materialize a cliff. Professional…