Lee AdlerI started to wonder how the banking indicators were looking lately. I’ve looked at the charts this morning. In updating this for you, I’ve again attempted to minimize the verbiage here. The charts are bad enough.
The stock and bond markets face a triple whammy at the end of this month. In this report I’ll show you what those three things are, why and how they will impact the market, and what you should do about it (subscriber version only). These three things will pose a grave threat to the Treasury market, to short term interest rates, and ultimately to the stock market.
We know when the Treasury will run out of cash. Congress will then be forced to raise the debt ceiling.
The Treasury will need to issue immense amounts of new debt to repay the internal accounts it raided, and to rebuild its cash account. It won’t be pretty, but we have situational awareness. We’ll be prepared.
Primary dealers have offset their losses of last August through February in the recent rally, and they have reduced their net long exposure somewhat since their highest levels of a year ago.
Treasuries have sold off on the strong, surprise jobs report last week.
At the same time, there’s been an equally important, but less well known surprise. The Treasury has maintained an increased pace of T-bill paydowns in the first third of August, despite the re-imposed debt ceiling.
That’s a short term bullish factor for bonds
Wall Street wiseguys and the mouthpieces of the Mob @CNBC and @WSJ don’t know it yet, but the US economy went over a cliff in the last two weeks. They don’t know because they’re not tracking the real time Federal tax collection data like we are. And that data shows us that’s what happened.
Subcscribers click here to download the complete report. Intro The Fed has bought mass quantities of Treasuries and MBS over the past dozen years, in…
They’ve been threatening to do it for two years, and finally pulled the trigger. The Fed’s captured media barely gave it lip service, with a…
I could just repost the same thing every time I update this report. The Fed continues to rig the stock market, and that rigging continues…
We’ve been following the story of the US Treasury paying down outstanding T-bills since late February. $680 billion of paydowns led to a big turnaround…
I finished my two dose vaccination regimen on June 14, and travel restrictions have lifted here in Europe since July 1. It’s been an interesting…
I wanted to take a short break from my short vacation to get this post out. I’ll take a few more days hiatus and get…