Lee AdlerPrimary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage.…
The US Treasury continues to pay down T-Bills. That puts cash back into the accounts of the dealers and investors that had held the securities…
Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt,…
Tax collections were strong in May except for a dip that coincided with the Nonfarm Payrolls survey. Here’s why that’s unequivocally bad news for the…
The Composite Liquidity Indicator remains near a record extreme, and that’s scary. Here’s what you need to know. Click here to download the report (Subscribers…
Tax collections suggest jobs and other economic data for May will surprise the market. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only) One Month Free…
The Fed’s balance sheet shrank sharply over the past 4 weeks. So it’s no surprise that the stock market rally sputtered. But what’s going on…
Primary Dealer positions are record long, record leveraged, and record dangerous. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only) Not a subscriber yet? Get this…
The Treasury market will look very bullish for a little while. But the aftermath of the forces that look bullish now, will be terrible. Here’s…
The US Treasury is playing games that make the stock and bond markets look good now. But here’s why you’ll be the one stuck with…
Tax collections for April and real time data into early May showed a strong economy until last week. Then something went wrong. Click here to…
Withholding tax collections through May 7 remain strong. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only) One Month Free Trial and 90 days risk free…
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