Lee Adler
Common sense says that as case numbers increase, tax collections would fall and vice versa, REGARDLESS of whether governments imposed lockdowns. So my expectation was…
This data tells us exactly what the big picture is right now, while Wall Street economists are still scratching their asses and trying to figure out what the government statistician manipulated data will be and will mean. And the first report from that government data is still 13 days away.
The Monthly Treasury Statement for May confirms that the economy rebounded during the month, but more recent data through last week suggests that the rebound…
To the degree that it’s true, the idea that the US economy is recovering is a catastrophic notion for the financial markets. Surprisingly, the withholding…
Back in December I had no idea that a pandemic was coming. I had no idea that COVID19 would cause Treasury supply to increase 10x.…
In normal times, the Federal Government has a revenue windfall in April, and runs a large surplus for the month. Revenues are typically at least…
The Federal deficit hit $1 trillion in April. That’s a cool 1,500% increase year to year. That’s for one month. This is based on the…
We expected the worst, and we’ve gotten it. But that does not mean that things will get better. The revenue trends had been strong. Now…
Federal tax collections are collapsing but the US Treasury now has $827 billion in cash in its bank account at the Fed. This is double…
Even before COVID-19 the trend was clear that the Treasury would need to keep borrowing money hand over fist. Now the deficit will explode. This…
Suddenly the trend of Federal Withholding tax collections is in critical condition. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Get this report and access to…
The patterns on the charts of T-bills and the 10 year note are unprecedented. Something terrible has happened in the market. The Fed will have…