Lee AdlerOur purpose here is to examine Federal revenues and spending for any sign that the Fed would have any justification for a policy move. And…
The game is over. The massive liquidity inflows from the US Treasury into dealer accounts that has fueled the stock and bond rallies since March…
Total tax collections rose in July, as did most components, including withholding. If the economy is materially weakening, it’s not showing up in real time…
The Treasury paydown game has ended. A deluge of supply is coming. The Fed has panicked, ending its bloodletting program early, and without warning. And…
The debt ceiling deal is done. It only remains for the House and Senate to pass the deals and send it to the White House…
They kicked the can into July, but it was there for all to see. Here’s what it means for your investment strategy. Subscribers, click here…
NOTE: I neglected to insert the updated Withholding Tax chart in the report posted last night. The data and analysis was complete and update. Here’s…
Primary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage.…
The US Treasury continues to pay down T-Bills. That puts cash back into the accounts of the dealers and investors that had held the securities…
Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt,…
Tax collections were strong in May except for a dip that coincided with the Nonfarm Payrolls survey. Here’s why that’s unequivocally bad news for the…
Tax collections suggest jobs and other economic data for May will surprise the market. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only) One Month Free…