That’s right. Inflation is dead. But it doesn’t matter, because the Fed won’t pull the stake out of its heart until it’s too late. I’ll get to that below (in the subscriber report, non subscribers, click here to read this report) but first, let’s talk about the interest rate bogeyman. It’s a fake issue, a diversionary tactic. Subscribers, click here to download the report.
Interest rates don’t matter in terms of policy effects on the markets. They are merely a meter of monetary tightness. That tightness is Fed policy, and market interest rates, T-bills in particular, continue to post warning signs about that day in and day out. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.
The Street and its captured handmaiden media mouthpieces keep talking about the Fed raising interest rates. But the Fed has never actually raised rates. It has simply rubber stamped the increases that have already happened in the money markets to the meaningless Fed Funds target rate. And it hasn’t done a very good job of keeping up with market increases. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.
The evidence shows, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, that the market keeps outrunning the Fed’s rubber stamp. Regardless of all the bullish speculation on when the Fed will pause, or slow down its rate increases, or whatever it is that the Street wants investors to believe, the fact is that monetary conditions are still tightening, and will continue to tighten. And that will keep a lid on the markets. Rallies will continue to make lower highs, to be followed by lower lows. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.
The best meter of those conditions are short term Treasury bill rates, and those are still rising. This simple measure of the market shows clearly that the demand for short term funding continues to be greater than the supply of ready cash. Last week, both the 13 week bill rate and the 4 week bill rate hit new highs, as the Treasury repeatedly came to market with massive new T-bill offerings. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.
But that’s only the beginning of this horror story. The rest is in the report, including the evidence that inflation is already dead, and why it doesn’t matter. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
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