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Author: Lee Adler

Here are More Short Chart Picks as New Projection Points to 1300

Lee Adler

This market is a different breed of cat. Cycles have little or no influence. This is a fundamental collapse of liquidity. Traditional technical analysis is more useful. In that regard, the conventional measured move implication of the breakdown below the December 2018 low is 1350. Other techniques point to that area.

I’ve added a few new shorts to our trades list this week. Our initial pick now has a gain of 32.6% since entry on March 3, using no leverage.  Short sale margin is 50%. You can do the math.

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“I Am the Greatest!” Muhammad Ali Financial Crisis KOs the Fed

Lee Adler

The Fed has undertaken so many rescue programs since Friday that my head is spinning. It’s hard to keep track of it all. A schedule of repo offerings for the next month reads like the Old Testament. Even the rabbis are arguing over it, the underlying question being, “Where is G-d already?”

I’ve tacked it to the butt of this report.

Anyway, it’s irrelevant. The dealers can’t borrow a fraction of what the Fed is offering. Here’s what’s relevant. The markets are now a mass grave filled not with COVID19 victims, but victims of the greatest bubble in history. A bubble built by the Fed.

Here’s what’s coming next, and what you can do about it to preserve your capital and maybe even profit from the big moves that lie ahead.  Assuming that trading systems continue to function at all.

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Already Soaring Federal Outlays are About to Explode and Boy Is That A Problem

Lee Adler

Even before COVID-19 the trend was clear that the Treasury would need to keep borrowing money hand over fist. Now the deficit will explode. This is a hideous problem for financial markets in this condition.

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Gold Proves No Insurance Policy As Collapsing Credit Bubble Takes No Prisoners

Lee Adler

Last week’s indications that gold was going higher failed miserably. A collapsing credit bubble takes no prisoners. When the margin man comes to your door, you sell whatever you can. Gold was sold. It was no insurance policy. There was significant technical damage. We look at where gold and the mining stocks are headed next.

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Crash Channels Remain Intact, Long Term Signs Get Worse

Lee Adler

The SPX has broken out of its original crash channel to the downside. It’s in a new channel with a slope of -46 points per day. Long term signals are already extremely negative, and are on the verge of turning catastrophic, cataclysmic, and apocalyptic.

I’ve run out of adjectives.

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Fed Repeats the Mistake of 2008, Only Worse

Lee Adler

With no prior announcement or clue, the Fed bought $37 billion in Treasury coupons from Primary Dealers on Friday. To pay for them it deposited $37 billion into dealer accounts at the Fed.

It was the largest single day POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) purchase since the days of TARP and QE 1 in 2009.

It came without warning. I was so glued to the intraday live charts on Friday, I wasn’t even aware that the Fed had taken this emergency action until after the close.

We sure as hell saw the result. But this is only the beginning of this story.

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Gold Looks Set to Go Parabolic

Lee Adler

Gold again challenged trend resistance and pulled back. This is a multiple choice test. Here are the answers. Only one of them is correct. If you do not know the answer, guess.

But are the miners dead? I’ll let you know.

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Lock Limit Down

Lee Adler

The S&P futures are trading limit down at 2812 as I write this at 2:50 AM Eastern Time in the US.

I suspect that the PPT will be in action over the next few hours. Whether they’ll be able to get it above support at 2850 or not is the question. And if they do, can they keep it there? If they fail, then we’re in line for an epic crash.

The cycle lineup suggests a low now, at least after this morning’s crash burns out. Here’s what to look out for.

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Dealers Smelling Like A Rose, But Elsewhere the Smell of Death

Lee Adler

Investors and leveraged speculators instead took the coronavirus panic straight to the bond market. Dealers, bless their little hearts, were long up the wazoo. Talk about smellin like a rose.

But somebody was short. Big somebodies. They’re dead. We don’t know where the bodies are buried yet, but the Fed will need to exhume them and fill the graves. We watching for the exhumations to see who the dig up, and what they fill the graves with.

Meanwhile, there’s plenty of liquidty in dealer accounts and more on the way.

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Real Time Federal Withholding Data Signals Shows US Econ On the Brink

Lee Adler

Suddenly the trend of Federal Withholding tax collections is in critical condition.

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