Lee AdlerThe forecast has changed. It’s less bearish, but it’s still bearish. Here’s why.
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The correction has begun. Here’s what to expect.
The longer intermediate cycles say that the market is heading much higher. Shorter cycles point to more limited upside. But the whole shebang is fragile as hell. Here’s what to look for, along with some interesting chart picks on both the long and short side.
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By now, you’ve heard all about the $2.8 trillion budget deficit so far this year.
Old news. With more pandemic spending on hold, the monthly deficits will shrink. Good news, bad news. Here’s why.
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No news isn’t no news. The Primary Dealers are in the same posture they’ve been in. They’re still bullish on bonds and that’s an extremely dangerous situation.
It’s like that warehouse packed with explosives in Beirut. One small fire could ignite a conflagration of biblical proportions.
The dealers continue to maintain historically large fixed income positions. Those positions hit record high prices. They’ve accumulated a good bit of inventory near the highs. They remain highly leveraged. Worse, they’ve reduced their futures hedges significantly. They are positioned for even more or a bullish environment in bonds.
This report gives you the keys to look for.
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Just one more projection remains to be reached on both gold and the index of gold mining stocks. Meanwhile, 3 of the 4 remaining mining picks hit targets or were stopped out. The list was up 32.7% with an average period of just under 6 weeks.
The path of least resistance is still up. Cycle projections say the S&P will make new highs, and not just by a little.
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Macro liqudity been bullish since early July. That was no secret. We were fully informed and prepared. And it’s no secret that this balance is about to flip to bearish. Really bearish. Can our beloved Fed get ahead of that curve?
The US Treasury issued its quarterly refunding report this week. So we now know what to expect from the US Treasury. We already knew what the Fed’s plans were. It made its policy pronouncement last week. More of the same. Snooze.
But that expectation is only good for the balance of this quarter, that is, through September. The government’s forecast for debt issuance beyond that, for the last calendar quarter, and maybe even for the next 7 weeks, should be taken with 5 pounds of salt.
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) does ok for the current quarter when it issues its estimate halfway through the quarter. It helps to know what has already happened for the first half of the quarter. But their look-ahead forecasts to the following quarters are usually revised significantly, and sometimes completely reversed.
So we’ll focus on what we can reasonably expect from now through September. Even though we don’t know how much the government will spend on economic relief.
Here’s the key takeaway.
Open the report to find out what it is, why it is, and what to expect.
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A recovery in withholding tax collections that began in mid June, ended in the last week of July. The one time annual tax windfall is now fini, and more spending is coming. Here’s what it means for the stock and bond markets.
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As projections rise, prices are rising to catch up with them as concurrent up phases grow long in the tooth. But momentum and cycle indicators remain bullish. Here are the latest projections and suggestions.