Federal revenues fell in October for the first time since February. And outlays rose, widening the deficit. The Fed raised its ante in response. Here’s what this means and what you should do about it.
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The Fed has pumped almost $311 billion into the accounts of Primary Dealers since mid September. Here’s what that has done and what it hasn’t, and why you should be worried.
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The Fed has been pumping money into the system hand over fist since mid September when it restarted QE. It’s working… to a degree. But there are problems.
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The Fed is taking up all new Treasury issuance, dollar for dollar. Must be a coincidence.
Uh…
No…
Here’s what it means and what to do about it.
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The US Treasury daily tax data showed weak revenue and soaring outlays in October. The deficit is soaring, but the Fed is monetizing every penny of it and then some, leaving the Primary Dealers with plenty of cash.
Here’s why this is like the Fed piloting a Boeing 737 Max 800. It is exactly the same thing.
No. I mean it.
Seriously.
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With QE New the Fed has the tools and the power to push money rates down, and it is succeeding. But it’s not succeeding in the bond market. The crisis is worsening there. Here’s what’s going on, and what to look for.
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It’s official. QE New has reversed 5 months of previous Fed balance sheet normalization. Here’s what the “new normal” means for your investments. It might not be what you think.
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Private demand for US Treasury securities collapsed in September, forcing the Fed to first finance purchases, and then to buy Treasuries outright. The market is broke and broken, and that has yooge implications for you as an investor or trader.
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The US Treasury daily tax data suggests that the US economy is at least slowing. That means already yooge deficits will grow. Treasury supply will grow with it. How much QE will be enough to keep asset prices inflated?
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Net new Treasury supply is receding to the “new normal,” averaging around $100 billion per month. We know we have a problem when a hundred bill is “normal.”
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Lee Adler