With QE New the Fed has the tools and the power to push money rates down, and it is succeeding. But it’s not succeeding in the bond market. The crisis is worsening there. Here’s what’s going on, and what to look for.
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It’s official. QE New has reversed 5 months of previous Fed balance sheet normalization. Here’s what the “new normal” means for your investments. It might not be what you think.
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Private demand for US Treasury securities collapsed in September, forcing the Fed to first finance purchases, and then to buy Treasuries outright. The market is broke and broken, and that has yooge implications for you as an investor or trader.
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The US Treasury daily tax data suggests that the US economy is at least slowing. That means already yooge deficits will grow. Treasury supply will grow with it. How much QE will be enough to keep asset prices inflated?
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Net new Treasury supply is receding to the “new normal,” averaging around $100 billion per month. We know we have a problem when a hundred bill is “normal.”
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The Fed’s new TOMO has already hit a quarter trillion. It may not be QE in name, but it is in fact. And make no mistake. Regardless of what they call it, it will become official and permanent. Here’s a look back on how we knew it was coming and a look ahead on what to expect from it for the markets.
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The game has changed radically in the past two weeks, so it does not matter one iota what the economy is doing. It’s the debt, Stupid. Or the stupid debt. Or the stupid economists, central bankers, and Wall Street crowd. Actually, it’s all of the above. Here’s why, and what to do about it.
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I have been warning for months that once the debt ceiling was lifted the money markets would tighten dramatically. It’s happening. Here’s a rundown of the banking indicators, how they led up to this, what they’re telling us now, and my recommendation on what to do about it.
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Normalization is dead. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is all she wrote. A little bit of Fed POMO won’t be enough to save the bond market, or stocks for that matter.
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The trend is your friend, and the Fed has gone soft. And traders know it. But there may be trouble in Primary Dealer Bond Land.
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