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Category: 1 – Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

July Tax Collection Data Still Solid – Aye, There’s The Rub!

Lee Adler

Total tax collections rose in July, as did most components, including withholding. If the economy is materially weakening, it’s not showing up in real time tax collection data. The Fed’s rate cut makes no sense from that perspective, or any perspective. Is it the first step to a return to QE?

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90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only.

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Into the Deluge – Panic Demand for Bonds Is Madness

Lee Adler

The Treasury paydown game has ended. A deluge of supply is coming. The Fed has panicked, ending its bloodletting program early, and without warning. And buyers are panicking into bonds, a move that they will live to regret, very quickly.

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The Deal Is Done, Get Ready To Rumble

Lee Adler

The debt ceiling deal is done. It only remains for the House and Senate to pass the deals and send it to the White House for signature. That’s due to happen next week.

The time to act is now.

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CORRECTED – Danger! Market Liquidity Is About To Get Very Tight

Lee Adler

Yesterday, I posted this report with the intro from the June report. This version corrects that error. I apologize for the confusion!

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Federal Budget Deficit Simultaneously Stimulating and Eviscerating Won’t End Well

Lee Adler

They kicked the can into July, but it was there for all to see.  Here’s what it means for your investment strategy.

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Stupidity, Greed, and Recklessness Drive Surging Loan Growth

Lee Adler
All charts viewable full size in the report.
All charts viewable full size in the report.

Loan growth is red hot. And it’s all based on speculation. But lenders act as if there’s no risk in all these new loans. Here’s the proof, and what it means.

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Wake Up! The Fed Is About to Play a Huge Joke on You

Lee Adler
View charts full size and full resolution in the report.

The joke is on Wall Street, investors, and yes, the Fed itself. But you will be prepared to take advantage because you read this report.

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June Federal Tax Data Shows Fed Has No Excuse – Chart Corrected

Lee Adler

NOTE: I neglected to insert the updated Withholding Tax chart in the report posted last night. The data and analysis was complete and update. Here’s the report with the updated chart. 

The tax data shows that the market rationale for the rallies in stocks and bonds is just plain wrong.  Here’s the proof, and what to do about it.

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Primary Dealer Positions Are Off The Charts DANGEROUS

Lee Adler

Primary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage.

In the short run, all this cash makes everything look great, but don’t be misled. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

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Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Thursday, June 27 and get the first month free! Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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Everything Looks Great When the US Treasury Pumps Cash Into the Market

Lee Adler

The US Treasury continues to pay down T-Bills. That puts cash back into the accounts of the dealers and investors that had held the securities that are being redeemed. That, in turn, continues to stoke demand for longer dated notes and bonds. It has also contributed to the demand for stocks.

In the short run, all this cash makes everything look great, but don’t be misled. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, June 25 and get the first month free! Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

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