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Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Gold Cycle Projections Hold Good News

Lee Adler

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There’s a lot of good news in the cycle projections table (subscriber version). Cycles are in gear to the upside and projections point higher. Now those projections just need to come to fruition. A breakout through xxxx (subscriber version)  should get the ball rolling uphill. Failure to do so within the next couple of weeks would not be good.

Gold made a little progress over the past week but it still needs to clear xxxx (subscriber version) to break out of the trading range. That would essentially end the risk that this year-long consolidation would break down and lead to another downleg in a bear market. Until that upside breakout, the outlook would continue to hold that risk.

On the long term chart of the gold stock index, the neckline of a potential reverse head and shoulders bottom is now at xxxx (subscriber version). Clearing that would be bullish. Failing, and subsequently falling back under xxxx (subscriber version), would be bearish.

Today, there are 24 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is a big departure from the small numbers of signals in recent weeks, suggesting the possible onset of a new upleg. I expected to see some charts with good setups but I found only two that I liked enough to add to the list, xxxx  and xxxx (subscriber version). The rest were still below big resistance.

Current open picks and one that was stopped out last week, had an average gain of 16.3% and an average holding period of 37 calendar days.  I will drop (xxxx) as of the opening price on Tuesday and track the two new picks also as of the opening price on Tuesday.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Is in Perfect Equilibrium AND Maximum Uncertainty

Lee Adler

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Short term cycles are due for pullbacks or consolidations while the 13-17 week cycle remains in an up phase. Its projection has risen slightly to xxxx (subscriber version). Unfortunately however, the 9-12 month cycle indicators are weakening again, which doesn’t bode well for this up phase. The uncertainty will persist for as long as gold remains locked in the xxxx-xxxx range(subscriber version).

The depth of last week’s pullback leaves the strength of the 6 month cycle up phase in the mining stock index in doubt. The chart shows the parameters we need to watch (subscriber version)..

Today, there are 7 buys and 1 sell from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is an uptick after 3 weeks of more short term sell than buy signals, but it’s not broad enough to signal a new upleg.

Current open picks have an average gain of 14.2% and an average holding period of 32 calendar days. I plan on letting these ride through the consolidation phase with the exception of xxxx, which has broken signal lines in the wake of xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version).. . I’ll let it ride as long as it stays above the stop, but if the stop is hit, I’ll remove it.

None of the new buy signals were compelling, therefore no new picks this week.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Report Glitch

Lee Adler

I don’t know if this issue is affecting all subscribers, but I did hear from one of you that it is, and I found that it’s also affecting me, as I attempt to download the latest Gold Trader report. I have a temporary workaround. Just right click on this link to the report and select open link in new tab (or window). That will open the login screen and you can open as usual. If you are a new subscriber, just type your user name and password, and click enter and the file should open. If it does not, email me from the support form and I’ll send you the file directly.

Sorry for the inconvenience! I’m working on getting this fixed ASAP.

Lee

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Gold Sets Up for Eventual Breakout

Lee Adler

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The 13-17 week cycle now has a projection of xxxx (subscriber version), suggesting that xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx (subscriber version) . Both the 9-12 month and 15 month cycle indicators are now constructive for a breakout when xxxx xxxx xxxx.

The mining stock index HUI has broken out of an intermediate term base with a measured move target of xxx (subscriber version). Cycle projections don’t point that high yet, but there’s plenty of time in the 6 month cycle up phase for it to happen. Likewise, the 10-12 month cycle seems to have turned up.  

Today, there are 4 buys and 5 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is a consolidation phase after 26 buy signals and just 3 sell signal three weeks ago. Current open picks have an average gain of 18.5% and an average holding period of 25 calendar days.   I will let these picks ride without stops again this week. None of the new buy signals were compelling, therefore no new picks this week.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Lines Up Potential Bottom

Lee Adler

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Gold shows signs of bottoming, but there’s a key parameter that must be met. Short term cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx. (subscriber version).

Meanwhile our mining stock swing trade pick list posted a solid performance last week, and shows good potential for more gains. But we need to allow for pullbacks as they build bases. See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Stuck in the Middle While Miners Look Promising

Lee Adler

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Gold has been in suspended animation for the past two weeks. Cycle indications are conflicting and motionless. The signal for the next move, even a small one, would be a breakout from the current range of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version).

Meanwhile our mining stock swing trade pick list perked up last week, and shows good potential for more gains. But we need to allow for pullbacks as they build bases. See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Five Mining Picks to Swing

Lee Adler

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Short term cycles in the metal are in up phases, but they’d better get more traction or it could mean more trouble ahead. There’s no confirmation of an upturn in longer cycles yet.

But the screens of the mining stocks offered more positive signs, and I picked 5 charts to put on our swing trade chart pick list this week (subscriber version).

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A Few Good Signs from the Gold Miners, But Not the Metal

Lee Adler

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Gold is at a critical level, testing trend support at xxxx (subscriber version). Updated cycle projections now point to a low of xxxx-xx, with the time window xxxx (subscriber version). The 9-12 month cycle is still in a flat down phase, but it could get much worse if it breaks xxxx (subscriber version).

The Mining Stocks Index (HUI) 9-12 month cycle momentum has reached the level of past lows since 2017 as HUI ticked the bottom of its major downtrend channel. Failure to hold here would be bearish, with the next target xxx-xxx. Conversely an uptick here would be bullish (subscriber version).

Today’s swing trade screen was unqualified good news for the short term outlook. It yielded 25 buy signals and just 1 sell signal, with 26 stocks rendering no new signals. Since there now seems to be a prospect of some recovery, I chose two of the 25 buys to add to the list this week, shown below (subscriber version).

I have included failsafe stoploss prices for those, and adjusted the stop for one of the existing picks.

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When Hope Is Not a Good Thing

Lee Adler

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I would call today’s big picture cycle screening data for the mining stocks an unqualified disaster, were it not for the fact that the two longer time frames barely dropped below neutral. Moreover, the short term numbers reached a deep sell side extreme. So all is not lost yet. But another down week would crush any hopes of a near term rebound.

When all feels hopeless is usually when a bottom arrives. Right now feels semi hopeless. Maybe not a good thing.

Today’s mining stocks short term swing trade screen yielded 7 buy signals and 7 sell signals, with 38 stocks rendering no new signals. It’s not a recipe for a trouncing, but also not one that inspires confidence. I looked at the charts of the 7 buy signals and the setups promised no more than a dead cat bounce. So I let the dead cats lie.

The last 3 of the picks from August 24 got stopped out last week. The 3 new picks were all losers on the week, but the charts are not broken. At least not yet. There’s still still a reasonable chance of a rebound. I have added stops to those, just below support levels. The table and charts are in the subscriber version.

As for the metal itself, it looks set up for a little bounce here that should carry back to xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version). Then we’ll see. If they hang around up there, it would be a good sign that the worst is over. An immediate rollover would not be.

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Constructive Signs for Gold Digging

Lee Adler

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The cycle picture is hazy. The table at left (subscriber version) is my best guess. A short term low is due, but at a lower projection. The would-be 13-17 week cycle up phase has gone nowhere, despite a new projection that points higher. If it doesn’t get out of this range soon, it would suggest the possibility of a wicked down phase ahead. If the price holds above the May-August downtrend line as shown on this chart (subscriber version), that would be constructive

HUI gold stock index has been rangebound at the lows for the past month. It still needs to clear xxx (subscriber version) to complete an intermediate term bottom. If successful, it would indicate a new 6 month cycle up phase. The measuring implication would be around xxx (subscriber version).

In the cycle screens of the mining stocks, short term cycles got crushed but the two longer time frames held up ok over the past week. That suggests a pullback in a longer up phase. It tells us to stay the course for now with any longs that haven’t been stopped out, and keep an eye out for new entries.

In the chart picks screen, today’s screen yielded 20 buy signals. There were 4 sell signals. This is a nice balance from a bullish perspective. Last week there were 43 sell signals which was a red flag, but as I wrote then, “The intermediate trend structures still hold the prospect of further gains.” Ditto this week. On reviewing the charts of the stocks with buy signals, I found a few that I liked and will add to the list as buys as of today’s opening print. They are XX, XXX, and XXX. See charts below (subscriber version).

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