Category: 3 – Gold Trader

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The 13-17 week cycle now has a projection of xxxx (subscriber version), suggesting that xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx (subscriber version) . Both the 9-12 month and 15 month cycle indicators are now constructive for a breakout when xxxx xxxx xxxx.

The mining stock index HUI has broken out of an intermediate term base with a measured move target of xxx (subscriber version). Cycle projections don’t point that high yet, but there’s plenty of time in the 6 month cycle up phase for it to happen. Likewise, the 10-12 month cycle seems to have turned up.  

Today, there are 4 buys and 5 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is a consolidation phase after 26 buy signals and just 3 sell signal three weeks ago. Current open picks have an average gain of 18.5% and an average holding period of 25 calendar days.   I will let these picks ride without stops again this week. None of the new buy signals were compelling, therefore no new picks this week.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold has been in suspended animation for the past two weeks. Cycle indications are conflicting and motionless. The signal for the next move, even a small one, would be a breakout from the current range of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version).

Meanwhile our mining stock swing trade pick list perked up last week, and shows good potential for more gains. But we need to allow for pullbacks as they build bases. See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold is at a critical level, testing trend support at xxxx (subscriber version). Updated cycle projections now point to a low of xxxx-xx, with the time window xxxx (subscriber version). The 9-12 month cycle is still in a flat down phase, but it could get much worse if it breaks xxxx (subscriber version).

The Mining Stocks Index (HUI) 9-12 month cycle momentum has reached the level of past lows since 2017 as HUI ticked the bottom of its major downtrend channel. Failure to hold here would be bearish, with the next target xxx-xxx. Conversely an uptick here would be bullish (subscriber version).

Today’s swing trade screen was unqualified good news for the short term outlook. It yielded 25 buy signals and just 1 sell signal, with 26 stocks rendering no new signals. Since there now seems to be a prospect of some recovery, I chose two of the 25 buys to add to the list this week, shown below (subscriber version).

I have included failsafe stoploss prices for those, and adjusted the stop for one of the existing picks.

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The cycle picture is hazy. The table at left (subscriber version) is my best guess. A short term low is due, but at a lower projection. The would-be 13-17 week cycle up phase has gone nowhere, despite a new projection that points higher. If it doesn’t get out of this range soon, it would suggest the possibility of a wicked down phase ahead. If the price holds above the May-August downtrend line as shown on this chart (subscriber version), that would be constructive

HUI gold stock index has been rangebound at the lows for the past month. It still needs to clear xxx (subscriber version) to complete an intermediate term bottom. If successful, it would indicate a new 6 month cycle up phase. The measuring implication would be around xxx (subscriber version).

In the cycle screens of the mining stocks, short term cycles got crushed but the two longer time frames held up ok over the past week. That suggests a pullback in a longer up phase. It tells us to stay the course for now with any longs that haven’t been stopped out, and keep an eye out for new entries.

In the chart picks screen, today’s screen yielded 20 buy signals. There were 4 sell signals. This is a nice balance from a bullish perspective. Last week there were 43 sell signals which was a red flag, but as I wrote then, “The intermediate trend structures still hold the prospect of further gains.” Ditto this week. On reviewing the charts of the stocks with buy signals, I found a few that I liked and will add to the list as buys as of today’s opening print. They are XX, XXX, and XXX. See charts below (subscriber version).

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It’s decision time for this rally as gold rests in the downtrend area around 1810. The 6-7 week cycle projection is xxxx (subscriber version only), but they would need to push through resistance around xxxx (subscriber version). Cycles remain at cross purposes, which is conducive to xxxxxxxxxxxxx (subscriber version) .

HUI needs to clear xxx (subscriber version)  to complete an intermediate term bottom. If successful, the measuring implication would be around xxx.

Today’s screen yielded only 1 short term buy signal. Yesterday’s downtick began triggering sells with 6 of the 52 stocks in the screen flipping sell side switches. The intermediate trend structures still hold the prospect of a near term upturn. So I’ll stick with the 5 charts on the list (subscriber version), but won’t add any new ones today.

This report includes the cycle projections for short to long term time frames, and swing trade mining picks. Get ready for the big move now!

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