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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Technical Analysis Confirms the Brutality of Liquidity

Lee Adler

Last week we got technical confirmation of the absolutely brutal liquidity backdrop that I had repeatedly warned would occur in August in the Liquidity Trader Money Trends reports.  Liquidity sets context. Technical Analysis represents action. And the TA is now confirming a weak outlook for the next xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxx months.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

It’s helpful that the broad market indicators confirm the trades that the swing trade cycle screens have been generating over the past 3 weeks. The last longs were closed out very profitably at the beginning of last week. That left 13 shorts on the list. All 13 of those were profitable by the end of the week. I will post an update of that report on Monday. It will be interesting to see if there are any new shorts, or longs, added to the list for the post Labor Day week. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-  We’re still waiting for confirming xxxxx xxxxxxxx on the 10-12 month cycle. It’s not unusual xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx late. But when they do come, as soon as this week, they will signal the likelihood that xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxx  xxx xxxxxx lies ahead. A vestigial rally left over from the ghost of the up phase that died too early will xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx highs. Non subscribers click here to access.

Short term cycles are due to bottom this week. Projections have been following the market down, and have not been helpful. However, the 13 week cycle projection points to a low of xxxx, with the low still ideally due in the xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx window. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels Last week’s crash channel is intact. The top line starts near xxxx on Tuesday and the centerline is at xxxx. Those lines will end the holiday shortened weak (oops, Freudian slip) at xxxx and xxxx. The market would need to break both to end the xxxxx threat. Non subscribers click here to access.

xxxx-xxxx is the most important support area. If it doesn’t hold, there’s an air pocket to xxxx that could be traversed quickly. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  The major downtrend channel is intact. A test of resistance has held.  Long term indicators remain on the sell side.  A test of the low xxxx xxxx . If it breaks, then the target would be xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The August reversal set up a downtrend channel for September onward.  It  allows for a drop to trend support around xxxx. The bottom of the new downtrend channel  is at xxxx in September. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –   The cycle screening aggregate has now made both lower highs and a lower low over the past month. This suggests that the intermediate trend xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxx. 6 month cycle measures got smashed. They are now both on the sell side suggesting that the decline could last x xxx xxx xxxxxxxxx. Moving averages of the indicators also suggest 13 week and 6 month cycle down phases. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens – Good Week For Our Shorts Last Week, Adding More Now

Lee Adler

The final list of double screened output for last week had 9 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There were 18 charts with second or third sell signals to end the week. On Friday alone there were just 4 buy signals and 11 sell signals.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

These numbers don’t seem like much of a sell side win considering Friday’s carnage, but that’s because a ton of sell signals triggered the previous week. I only take a shapshot of those secondary signals on Thursday and Friday. There are more the rest of the week. Last Friday there were 14  charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There were 78 charts with second or third sell signals. On an individual day basis, there were a ton of sell signals in the August 15-19 week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So I’m satisfied that the small number of sell signals we see now is just a residual effect that so many stocks triggered sells before this. I don’t want to read more into it than that. I’ll wait for buy signals to get excited about taking short side profits or going long. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visual review of this week’s screen results, I have added 5 picks to the list on the short side, and none on the buy side. The new shorts are xxx, xxx, xxx, xxxx, xxx. This will result in the list having 13 shorts and 2 longs, both oil and gas. Charts below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As usual, I’ll start them with no stops for the first week, to give the market manipulators room to play with them before the expected swing sets in. Due to the late posting, and the weak pre market, I will track these as of a starting price based on the 1 PM New York time print on Monday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For August so far, 14 picks have been closed out with an average gain of 1.9% and an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, there have been 106 picks closed out with an average gain of 2.7% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week 4 buy side picks were stopped out with gains ranging from 0.2% to 16.6 %. None had losses. The average gain of open and closed picks for the week was 5.6%. The average holding period was 11 calendar days. We can’t annualize that, of course, but profits over the past couple of weeks have beaten the averages since November. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The performance of currently open picks and those closed last week is shown on the table above.  Charts of open and new picks are below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added and adjusted stops on existing open picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

1/18/22 I will continue to (mostly) forego stops in the first week that a pick is added to the list. I continue to feel that stops should only be used as trend violation triggers for exiting trades that I want to close out. That would include both those that have gone well and those that have not. I still do not like arbitrary stop loss as a strategy to reduce loss, because it has equal or greater potential to reduce profits on trades that ultimately turn into big winners. Stop running, and using false breakouts and breakdowns are time honored strategies of dealers and big speculators. Such whipsaws often lead to big moves. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Freak Out Now Before It’s Too Late

Lee Adler

Wall Street loves to tell you not to panic when the time comes to sell everything. To them panic means sell. But the truth is, panic is like a deer frozen in the headlights. Just before it gets run over by the oncoming 18 wheeler at speeding along at 80 miles an hour on I-80 as it flees west across New Jersey making its escape from New York.

That’s what this market will do if you freeze now. It will run you over.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

We’ve had plenty of warning. The propitious time to act on the oncoming danger has passed. But it’s not ok to panic and freeze now. Because this is likely to get much worse in the coming months. Any rallies are unlikely to get back to where we will be at the high of the day today, whether that’s on the New York open, or sometime later.

Cycles-  If the weakness persists, 10-12 month cycle indicators could signal a xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx to the up phase this week, with an xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx phase likely. Conversely, a rebound this week would suggest that the 10-12 month cycle xxxxx  xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

A 6 month cycle top window xxxx xxxxx. A continuation of the decline from here would signal a xxxxx. A recovery above xxxx this week would suggest that xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  Friday’s selloff set up a crash channel. The top line starts at xxxx on Monday, and ends near xxxxx on Friday. The market would need to break that to end the crash threat. Non subscribers click here to access.

If support lines around xxxx break, then the next target would immediately be xxxx, and below that, xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  Last week’s selloff keeps the major downtrend channel xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Resistance has held. Long term indicators remain on the xxxxx xxxx. xxxx is downtrending support this week. If it holds, then another rally attempt should be forthcoming. But if it does not hold, the target would be the xxxxxxxx area, quickly. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – August ending below xxxx would set up a downtrend channel for September onward.  Failing to clear xxxx at the end of August would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. The bottom of the new downtrend channel would be at xxxx in September. Non subscribers click here to access. 

Cycle Screening Measures –   The cycle screening aggregate was weak last week, but surprisingly, not as weak as Friday’s carnage would suggest. It leaves a mixed bag that, on the whole, suggests that there’s xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxx in the process of xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. On the other hand, the liquidity situation is dire, which suggests that this time will be different. A rebound on Monday would suggest xxx xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxx, while a continuation of the selloff would suggest xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens – Hit the Jackpot Last Week, New Shorts This Week

Lee Adler

The final list of double screened output for last week had 14  charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There were 78 charts with second or third sell signals to end the week.  That’s a lot of sell signals. Friday on a standalone basis had just 8 buy signals and 35 sell signals. The large number of repeat sell signals suggested that I should find a number of short sale candidates as I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria.

I wasn’t disappointed. I added 7 shorts to the list this week, to be tracked as of Monday’s opening price, as usual. They’re shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Last week I had 5 buys, including 3 oil and gas sector picks. They were huge winners, mostly on the strength of a big move on Friday. I’ll get to that below.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%.

Last week one buy side pick was stopped out with a gain of 29%. That really saved August performance. Picks closed out in August so far have had an average gain of only 2.6% on an average holding period of 16 calendar days. My system struggled for most of the month, but all that changed last week. The average gain of open and closed picks was 9.5%, which was near a record for this system. The average holding period was 12 calendar days, less than 2 weeks! The performance is shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added and adjusted stops on the remaining picks.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Stock Market Uptrend Cracks – Look Out Below

Lee Adler

Friday’s break, and this morning’s follow through in the pre-market, allow for the thought that the rally may be finished, but the evidence isn’t there yet. More work needs to be done.

Cycles-  The shortest cycles hit their projection and the market broke. However, the SPX only reached the low end of the 13 week cycle projection range. And both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles still project to xxxx.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

So I’m on the lookout for xxxxx xxxxxx xxxx xxxx after this pullback phase is complete. It might make a new high. xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx prime time for the 6 month cycle high. If it comes before that, so be it, but at the moment there’s no sign yet that this is it. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – The meltup channel finally broke last week, but there are multiple uptrend lines just below xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxx that should be support. The sharpest channel line starts the week at xxxx and rises to xxxx on Friday. They need to break to get anything significant going on the downside. I’d look for at least a bounce from one of those trendlines, and either a double top or lower high before a downtrend starts in earnest. If xxxx breaks, the next target for a pivot low would be xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

That resistance cluster xxxx-xxxx is still there. Obviously, they would need to clear that to extend the rally. If they do, the next target would be xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  The market pulled back after breaching previously noted key trend resistance at xxxx to end the week well below that level. As a result longer term xxx signals xxxx xxxx xxxxx . There’s a chance that this is the beginning of a xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx, but there’s more xxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – If the market stalls and rolls over here to end August below xxxx it would set up a xxxxx xxxxxx for September onward.  Failing to clear xxxx at the end of August would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –   Friday’s pullback represents only the potential for a turn. None of the xxxxxx xxxxxx have xxxxxxxxx  yet. A down day Monday would xxxxx the process, however. Barring that, the patterns would remain very similar to March – April 2020. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens – Buys Overwhelm Sells, It’s Late But One Sector Looks Ready to Roll

Lee Adler

The final list of double screened output for last week had 89 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There were 24 charts with a second or third sell signals to end the week. Friday on a standalone basis had 67 buy signals and just 8 sell signals.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

It was an overwhelming show of force after 2 weeks when sell signals held the edge. The rally broadened last week. Given the duration of the rally already, I expected to see mostly second wind buy signals, which can be very profitable, but carry higher risk. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. I didn’t see any short side setups to get excited about. The charts with sell signals did not have good bear trend structures, so I demurred on the shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Most of the buys were extended, or approaching or at resistance – not good buy points. But I did find a few that appeared to have running room or breakout potential. I added 5 of them to the list below. 4 were oil and gas or related. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. But the 7 picks that were still open at the end of the month had an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. The month should have been better, but I had those shorts last week, and they hurt us. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week I had decided to close out 3 shorts at Monday’s opening print. Those are shown on the table below. Another short hit its stop and it too is gone. The 5 picks closed out so far in August have only averaged a hair above breakeven on an average 2 week holding period. This is a poor performance, given the strength of the rally. I kept leaning to the short side, which exacted a cost. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I unfortunately added another short to the list and no longs last week. The result on all open and closed picks to start this week is an average gain of only 6.2% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added and adjusted stops on the remaining picks. These are shown on the tracking table in the report, along with the charts of open and new picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Yikes!

Lee Adler

Last week I described how unbelievably bullish it all looked. That turned out to be correct, and could get worse from here (for bears).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-  Cycle projections have risen.  Both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycle up phases now project to xxxx. The high on the 6 month cycle is due xxxxxxxx xx to xxxxxxx xx. The 10-12 month cycle high is due in xxxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx, suggesting a double top. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle projects to only xxxx. Shorter cycle projections suggest an interim high between here and xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  The measured move target of xxxx is now in play. The current meltup channel centerline will go from xxxx to xxxx this week. That needs to be broken to end this phase of the rally. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a cluster of longer term resistance lines from xxxx to xxxx. If they don’t stop this thing the next target would be the March high of xxxx. Yikes! Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  The market faces major trend resistance xxxx xxxx at xxxx. If it clears that, it would have clearance to xxxx. An extension of the rally from here would start triggering longer term xxxx xxxxxxx. A rollover now from here would xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  Clearing xxxx would make room for a move to xx-xxxx. Failing to clear xxxx would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The patterns are very similar to March – April 2020, as you can see on the second chart.

If the market drops on Monday, it would set up a 3 step negative divergence that would normally signal that a short term market peak is at hand. But if it keeps going, it would show that cyclical breadth momentum is strengthening, which would suggest significantly more upside.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens – One Bad Trade Hurt But the Rest Bailed Us Out for a Win

Lee Adler

Looking at the final list of double screened output for last week there were 26 charts with multiple buy signals versus 31 the week before. Four of the buys were inverse ETFs including one bond fund, so the edge to the bear side was even bigger.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Surprisingly there were 59 charts with a second or third sell signal on the week, versus 29 the week before. This is the second straight week with an edge to the sell side. And the edge was much bigger in the more recent week. It may be a tell, but it doesn’t guarantee a reversal. Broad market indicators aren’t signaling a top yet. So we’ll see. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the purpose of this report, the focus is on individual stock swing trade picks anyway.
Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 16 buy signals and 51 sell signals.
I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. Obviously, I expected to find more sells than buys, like last week. Just one problem. Of the shorts that I chose last week, one was a profit killer. Fortunately, there were enough winners to overcome my one really lousy pick. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. But the 7 picks that were still open at the end of the month had an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. The month should have been better, but I had those shorts last week, and they hurt us. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week 4 picks hit their stops and I will close 3 more as of this morning’s opening print. The result on all open and closed picks to start this week is an average gain of 2.3% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days.  I have added and adjusted stops on the remaining picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After reviewing the charts, I didn’t see anything I liked on the buy side. Most of the sells looked too early. And many were bond funds. They looked good, but don’t move enough for our purposes. I only liked one chart on the sell side as a short, XXX. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Fasten Your Seatbelts – Updated Cycle Projections Are Shocking

Lee Adler

I try not to argue with the market. Contrary to the belief of some Wall Street seers, the market is never wrong. It’s always right about the only thing that matters. The price. The price is the price. Nothing that you or I, or anyone else thinks about it will change that. It is what it is. There’s a reason for Rule Number Two: The trend is your friend. It’s because in terms of trading, it’s all that matters.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Last week I talked about the need to suspend disbelief because Wall Street is theater. We need to believe But I’m having trouble believing these updated projections, just as I’m having trouble believing the Phillies winning every day lately. But I won’t argue with them. I’ll just shake my head and say “Hard to believe, Harry,” hearing Rich Ashburn’s deadpan drawl in my brain.  So until the market decisively tells us otherwise, you gotta believe this. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles We are looking at a projection of xxxx on the 6 month cycle, with a high due xxxxxxxx xx- xxxxxxxx xx. The 13 week cycle high is now overdue and the projection for that cycle now matches the 6 month cycle projection.  The 6-7 week cycle now points to a projected high of xxxx with the high overdue. Only 4 week cycle indicators are currently suggesting a down phase. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  Uptrend channels haven’t been violated yet. A meltup channel starts the week at xxxx and has an upslope of 24 points per day to end the week at xxxx, That should be broken easily. A daily close below xxxx would be required to trigger a bigger short term trend reversal. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  The 10-12 month cycle bottom looks xxxx. The market is now entering an area of what should be massive resistance from xxxx to xxxx. 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators have not yet turned xxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  Clearing xxxx would make room for a move to xx-xxxx. Failing to clear xxxx would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The cycle screening aggregate stayed strong all week for the second straight week. It has formed a negative divergence with the market averages indicating fewer stocks participating, but so far, there’s xxxx xxxx that xxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxx. We need a xxxx xxxx xxxx for a sell signal. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But…

Lee Adler

We had them, but unfortunately, also had a few shorts that ate up much of what would have been phenomenal profits last week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at the final list of double screened output for last week there were 31 charts with multiple buy signals versus 54 the week before. 3 of those were inverse funds, which means that there were only 28 bullish signals. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were 29 charts with a second or third sell signal on the week, versus 14 the week before. Adding the 3 buy signals on the bearish ETFs makes 32 bearish signals. The fact that there were more bearish than bullish short term signals is surprising, if not shocking. Non-subscribers click here for access.

These numbers remain quite small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. The rally did not have a broad based thrust. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 33 buy signals and 52 sell signals. Obviously, a bearish tilt. How is that possible with such a big move in the averages? Monday will be interesting. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. I did not expect to find many buys because the market has already moved for two weeks. I did find one that looked interesting, XXX. To buy XXX or not to buy XXX. That is the question. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I wasn’t finding much that I liked on the short side until I got toward the end of the alphabet. I had just seen a headline in the Wall Street Journal about how great luxury brands were doing, so when XXX showed up in the sell side selections, I gladly added it to the list. I also added XXX, and XXX. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. But the 7 picks that were still open at the end of the month had an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. The month should have been better, but I had those shorts last week, and they hurt us. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We had no stop-outs last week. This week we start with those 7 open picks, of which 4 are buys and 3 are shorts. I have added or adjusted stops on all existing picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I will add 1 buy and 3 shorts to the list.  The picks are shown on the table below (See report). Charts are below that. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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