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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question

Lee Adler

Wall Street is largely theater, so we need to be able to suspend disbelief if we want to invest and trade successfully.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles- All cycles remain in gear to the upside, but cycle highs are due xxxxxxx xxxxxxx in all cycles up to 13 weeks duration. Cycle projections of xxxx-xx on the 13 week and 6 month cycles, and xxxx on the 4 week cycles have yet to be hit, so an xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxx is still possible. But it should be the xxxx xxxxxx for xxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 10-12 month cycle high isn’t due until xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. So we could be in for a lot of xxxxxxxx xxx and xxxx for the next xx xxx months. Unless the market xx xx xxx this week, from a technical perspective the bias should be to the xxxxx for xxxxx months. That’s xxxxxxx xxx the liquidity backdrop. Non subscribers click here to access.

What to do! Non subscribers click here to access.

Hold on to your hats and be nimble.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  The market now faces trend resistance at xxxx. If they clear that, the next trend resistance channel line is indicated around xxxx early in the week, headed for xxxx later in the week. Non subscribers click here to access.

Closing above xxxx would result in a conventional measured move target of xxxx. A daily close below xxxx would be needed to suggest even the possibility of a short term downside reversal. Non subscribers click here to access.

 Long Term Weekly Chart –  The 10-12 month cycle bottom looks xxxx. The market is now entering an area of what should be massive resistance from xxxx to xxxx. 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators have not xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  Clearing xxxx would make room for a move to xxxx-xxxx. Failing to clear xxxx would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The aggregate indicator has formed a negative divergence xxx the strength of the numbers is very xxxx. The last time the indicator made a pattern like this was from xxxxx xxxx- xxxx xxxx. I need not remind you what happened during that period. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screens – Surprise, Surprise – A Few Shorts

Lee Adler

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 54 charts with multiple buy signals, and 14 with more than one sell signal. That’s bullish, but doesn’t suggest major thrust. These numbers remain very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. Furthermore, a preponderance of these signals were in fixed income funds and high yield stocks.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The low output continues to reflect a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way. It’s still a meatgrinder market. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 35 buy signals and 19 sell signals. These are low to middling numbers. While bullish, they do not suggest a broad, powerful rally. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria expecting to find a few buys. I did. Two to be exact. But I found 3 that had nice setups on the short side. Go figure. All 5 picks are shown in the charts and table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

July has been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market. We managed not to get chewed up by mostly staying away. So far this month only two picks have been closed out for an average loss of 2.6%. The two remaining open picks have an average gain of 3.7%. That compares with 12 closed picks in June for an average gain of 10.1%.

This week we start with 2 open picks, both buys and will add 2 buys and 3 shorts. We had no stop-outs last week.

The picks are shown on the table below. Charts are below that. Because of my late posting today, I will track the new picks with an opening price of their 12 noon New York price.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Gonna Take You Higher, But Not Too Much

Lee Adler

Cycles- The bottoming process in the longer intermediate cycles xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx  as short term cycles got in gear to the upside last week. This doesn’t mean that we’re in for a long and winding xxxx xxxxxxxx phase.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

.Non subscribers click here to access.

A 4 week cycle high is due xxxx xx to xxxxxx xx, with the projection xxxxxxxxx xxx. However, the 6-8 week and 13 week cycles point to a range of 4xxx-xxxx, with a high due as late as xxxxxx xx. So the market still has a bit xxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxxxx over the next week. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Beyond that, the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles have xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx. A 6 month cycle high is due xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxxxxx, with an initial projection of xxxx. That’s probably not the last word on that. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – If they clear xxxx, the initial targets would be xxxx, and then xxxx. Only if they break those would xxxx be likely as the next target. If they pull back, support is at xxxxx and xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – This chart now suggests but doesn’t confirm a 10-12 month cycle xxxxxxx. Longer term cycle indicators remain bearish. Resistance is suggested around xxxx, and if cleared, xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – If they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal but is still above the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing any month below that line would be another long term bearish signal.

Cycle Screening Measures – The numbers were strongly positive all week, even Friday, after the pullback. Last week I said that the intermediate pattern has bipolar disorder. With persistently positive numbers for a month now, I’d call it manic. But until the numbers go negative for more than a few days, then the mania will remain in force. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

.Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday

Lee Adler

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 13 charts with multiple buy signals, and 35 with more than one sell signal. That’s surprising considering Friday’s strength, but the field of buy signals from earlier in the week was tiny.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

These numbers remain very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. The low output continues to reflect a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way. It’s a meatgrinder market. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 47 buy signals and 21 sell signals. Again, these are relatively low numbers. Just as the sell side edge was too small to get excited about last week, the same is true of the buy side edge this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Regardless, my task is to unearth trading opportunities, so I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. The buy signals all looked like rangebound setups that were only good for a scalp at best. I said, “Skip it.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

The sell side was no better. Most of the charts were too ambiguous to do anything. They still look a few weeks away from good short side setups. So we sit tight this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Major Swing Cycles Align for an Up Phase

Lee Adler

The cycle setup this week is a picture of juxtaposition, with the edge to the bulls. That’s because a hybrid of the two longer cycles seems to be in the bottoming process here. But short term cycles are mixed and opposed to one another. That suggests that the market won’t be able to get out of its own way. xxxx is more likely than a xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

.Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –   The market is “triangulating.”  XXXX is the critical level. A close above that would open the way for a move to the XXXX area. On the other hand, a close below XXXX on Monday would keep the sharpest downtrend channel intact. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – A weekly close above XXXX this week would signal a 6 month and possible 10-12 month cycle upturn. The target would then be around XXXX. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term downside cycle projections have already been reached but it’s too early to conclude that these downside projections are final. I will give more weight to classical technical indicator positions and trends such as a conventional measured move target of xxxx-xxxx. However, a 6 month and 10-12 month cycle up phase should xxxxx for a xxxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxxx lasting into xxxxxxxxxxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxxr.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – Breaking xxxx in July could send the SPX hurtling toward the next major support line at xxxx. Conversely, if they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. Non subscribers click here to access. 

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal and is now sitting just above the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing any month below that line would be another long term bearish signal. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The short term pattern is xxxxxxx. The intermediate pattern has bipolar disorder. I’m a liquidity analyst, not a shrink. I won’t try to make sense of it. However, a couple of the moving average indicators for these measures are now at pivotal points on their charts. If this morning’s market xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If this rally is a bottle rocket and the market ends lower through Tuesday, the xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx . Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trades This Week – Once Upon a Time Old Traders Told Me, Never Short A Dull Market

Lee Adler

Sounds good to me right now.

In fact, it is a good time to take a nap on the beach. Under an umbrella! Seriously. I’ve lived in sunny beach areas for 35 years. Let’s just say the sun hasn’t loved back the sun lovers. Not pretty. Not pretty at all. That glamorous tan you get at 25 and 25 and 45 doesn’t look so glamourous at 55 and 65 and 75. Unless you like deeply creased leather.

You’re better off sitting in front of a computer screen. Get your 15 minutes of sun, and your 30 minutes of exercise every day, and then sit in front of that screen and trade your ass off all day long. Live long and prosper, and play with your kids or grandkids every day if you have them! Life is short.

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 15 charts with multiple buy signals, and 24 with more than one sell signal. These numbers are very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. The minuscule output reflects a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were only 6 buy signals and 28 sell signals. Again, these are very low numbers. The edge to the sell side is too small to hang our hats on. Like last week, I see no reason to get excited about the market’s direction, either way.

Regardless, my task is to unearth trading opportunities, so I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. I found two that were interesting enough to add on the buy side. I didn’t like any of the potential shorts well enough to add them. There will be more opportunities on the short side soon enough, but I’m not seeing them at the moment.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This week we start with 2 open picks, both buys with new or adjusted stops. The two picks hardly moved. We had no stopouts. The net result was a big fat zero. I won’t try to generate fake excitement when there’s not a damn thing to be excited about. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There are two new picks, both buys. Are they likely to generate excitement? No, but like the two existing picks, they’re positioned well enough to maybe generate a few shekels over the next few weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The 4 picks are shown on the table in the report. Charts are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Advantage Bulls, But It’s Over If This One Thing Happens This Week

Lee Adler

Cycles- The cycle picture this week is a mixed bag, with the edge to the bulls. The bullish outlook hinges on there xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx  this week. That would validate the 6-7 week cycle up phase projection of xxxx, and raise the possibility, if not the likelihood, that the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles have merged into a shorter hybrid that xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx of xxxxx xxxxx. That would then point to that hybrid cycle staying xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx until August-September.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

.Non subscribers click here to access.

On the other hand if the market xxxxx xxxxxxxx xx xxxx this week, that would keep the 6 month cycle projection of xxxx in play. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – The SPX is centered in the lower half of its short term uptrend channel. The bottom of the channel rises from xxxx to xxxx this week. There are multiple crisscrossing resistance lines in the xxxx-xx area this week. A daily close above 3950 would result in a conventional measured move target of around xxxx. So I would not want to be short on a move above xxxx, or maybe xxxx at the outside. I might nibble on the short side on a rollover that ends the week below that green trend channel. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –Long term downside cycle projections have already been reached but it’s too early to conclude that these downside projections are final. I will give more weight to classical technical indicator positions and trends such as a conventional measured move target of xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Meanwhile, the market is in a counter trend rally. If it clears xxxx this week, it’s likely to head for major resistance around xxxx in July. Conversely, if it doesn’t clear the top of the trend channel near xxxx, the downtrend would remain intact. That would lead to a test of the low, with a good chance of a breakdown that would target xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – Breaking xxxx in July could send the SPX hurtling toward the next major support line at xxxx. Conversely, if they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal and is now sitting just above the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing any month below that line would be another long term bearish signal.

Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate was stable in a firmly positive range. The short term and intermediate patterns are xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

6 month cycle measures are now both on the buy side which is a sign that xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx. The current status measure is only modestly positive, so a down week this week would send it back to the sell side. But if the market moves higher that would make this indicator more xxxx xxx xxxxxx.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

.Non subscribers click here to access.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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For Swing Trades this Week, It’s Politics As Unusual

Lee Adler

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 58 charts with multiple buy signals, and 25 with more than one sell signal. These numbers reflect a rangebound but volatile two way market. Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were 16 buy signals and 11 sell signals.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Considering that there are over 10,000 stocks in the screened universe, these are small numbers. The tilt to the buy side is insignificant. I see no reason to get excited about the market’s direction, either way. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Regardless, my task is to unearth trading opportunities, regardless of the environment, so I undertook the usual visual review of the 58 multiple buys and 25 multiple sells. When I reviewed the 58 buys I was underwhelmed. Except for one chart, none appeared to have the potential for a sustained swing. I did pick the one chart to add to the list, XXXX. Non-subscribers click here for access.

That will leave us with XXXX and XXXX on the long side. Really, I couldn’t make this stuff up if I tried. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Then I reviewed the 25 short sale candidates. What I found was ambiguity. Many of these stocks had already been pounded into the dust, and did not appear to have the potential for significant downside swings in the short run. Part of the problem is that stocks that have dropped from triple digits to mid to low double digits play tricks with your eyes on the scales. It’s difficult to conclude that they still have significant percentage downside. It would appear that they need to bounce first. In some cases, they’ll just slither lower, but I’m loathe to try to pick those because of the potential for vicious dead cat bounces. Non-subscribers click here for access.

That’s a long way of saying I added no shorts to the list this week. The time has come for summer fun, and patience, waiting for better looking setups. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week I had said, “Nothing doing,” as I eyeballed the charts that the screens had spit out, and saw little opportunity either way, except for XXXX on the long side and PUMP on the short side. Well, PUMP got stopped up, and XXXX sprang xxxxxx, and it was all we were left with. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With PUMP stopped out early, and holding only xxxx until the end, last week, the list of two had an average gain of 6.8% with an average holding period of 8 calendar days.   As always, that includes both picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday, in this case, just the one. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This week we start with 1 open pick,  a buy with the symbol XXXX. I’ve added a stop to it at a trigger level that would suggest that the stock will not head up after all. I added it without a stop in the first week, as usual, to give XXXX a little wiggle room to develop into something more tangible. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All active picks and those closed out last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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US Stock Market Celebrates the Froth of July

Lee Adler

Badda bing, badda boom! Despite the pullback, bears are not out of the woods yet in the very short run, but technical analysis suggests xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx ahead.

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Cycles- It’s not clear yet if the up phases in the 4 week through 13 week cycles are finished. A close below xxxx would suggest that the up phase is complete. Holding above that would suggest that it isn’t. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s still no sign that the rally is the beginning of a new 6 month cycle up phase. The downside projection has risen to xxxx, still well xxxx the June low. Therefore we should still look for a xxxx xxxxxxxxx once xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx . Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – The bottom of a new channel starts the week around xxxx and ends it at roughly xxxx. That needs to be broken to signal the end of the uptrend and resumption of the downtrend. Non subscribers click here to access.

The top of the intermediate downtrend channel starts the post holiday week at xxxx, and comes down to roughly xxxx to end the week. If that line holds, then we are still in the midst of a powerful downtrend. If they clear that line, the rally should extend to xxxx.Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –Long term downside cycle projections have already been reached. In recent decades major trends have correlated more with the direction of monetary policy, not with long term cyclicality. I think that it’s too early to conclude that these downside projections are final. I will give more weight to analyzing classical the technical indicator positions and trends such as a conventional measured move target of xxxxx-xxxxx. If the market breaks xxxxx, then the conventional measured move target would be xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Meanwhile, the market is in a counter trend rally. If it clears xxxx this week, it’s likely to head for major resistance around xxxxx in July. Conversely, if it doesn’t clear the top of the trend channel near xxxx this week, the downtrend would remain intact. That would lead to xxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx, with a good chance of a breakdown that would target xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – Breaking xxxx in July could send the SPX hurtling toward the next major support line at xxxx. Conversely, if they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal and is now sitting on the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing a month below that line would be another long term bearish signal.

Cycle Screening Measures – The indicator peaked at +1600 on Monday June 27, and then pulled back but stayed well into positive territory. That was the highest peak since November 2021. In a bull market, that would be a bullish indication for the bigger trend. But since December 2021, each time the indicator exceeded +1000 has immediately preceded a short term top. Since January, each of three such peaks led to declines to lower lows in the market averages. Non subscribers click here to access.

This is consistent with the conventional technical measures suggesting xxx x xxx ahead after this up phase. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Bulls Have Hope This Week, Bears Wary of Pump

Lee Adler

If you believe in signs, miracles, portents, and quantum mechanics, then stock charts and trading screens are for you! Allow me to explain.

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In our search for stocks to add to our swing trade chart picks list, the final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 92 charts with multiple buy signals, and only 5 with more than one sell signal. 3 of the 5 were gold ETFs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were 81 buy signals and 0 sell signals. That’s right. Zero sells. So from a bearish perspective there’s nothing to hang our hats on. After last week’s pump, there’s no hope for dump. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As I prepared to eyeball the charts on the final lists of buys and sells, I was thinking that it’s too late to buy, but I tried to keep an open mind. As I went through the charts, I kept seeing the same thing. They all looked as though they had maybe another day or two of upside before hitting a wall of resistance. So I said, “No thanks.”

But then I saw one that I thought, “Here’s one I can hold and hope.” The symbol was xxxx. It was a sign. I put it on the list. Scientific method, right? Non-subscribers click here for access.

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The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/20/22 Last week, the list had an average gain of 16.4% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 11.2% per week.

The record gain tells us to expect some giveback this week. I have adjusted trailing stops to protect profits. At the same time, I wanted to allow some wiggle room for dead cat bounces because these charts look destined for a lower low within a couple of weeks, if not immediately.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week, the list had an average gain of 14.9% with an average holding period of 12 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 8.6% per week. That includes picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There was the expected giveback from the week before, but in the end, still a near record performance. That was great, especially considering that everything was short. But because there were signs that the market was sold out the week before, I had tightened the trailing stops. As a result, all 5 of the older picks got stopped out with profits. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The one new pick, xxxx, was a short. Call it luck, or a good job by the screens and my eyes, but it bucked the rally and sold off hard, giving the list a nice boost. As usual, I put it on the list without a stop, but I’m adding one this week to protect the profit, but still allow room for additional price decline. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 10% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 3.8% per week. That’s not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.25%, but trending upward. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 1 open pick and one new pick. The open pick is a short with the symbol xxxx. The new pick is a buy with the symbol xxxx. Hey. I gotta do what I gotta do. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’ve added a stop to xxxx, to protect the profit in case they do, but also allow room for more downside if they don’t. I have added xxxx without a stop in the first week, as usual, because you gotta hold on to xxxx, at least on the first week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’m sorry. I had no choice about that. Because I already had xxxx, I considered adding LIFE, but it was premature. Non-subscribers click here for access.

OK, I’m really sorry this time. I won’t do it again. I promise.

All active picks and those closed out last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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