Category: 2 &#8211; Technical Trader

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Cycles- It’s not clear yet if the up phases in the 4 week through 13 week cycles are finished. A close below xxxx would suggest that the up phase is complete. Holding above that would suggest that it isn’t. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s still no sign that the rally is the beginning of a new 6 month cycle up phase. The downside projection has risen to xxxx, still well xxxx the June low. Therefore we should still look for a xxxx xxxxxxxxx once xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx . Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – The bottom of a new channel starts the week around xxxx and ends it at roughly xxxx. That needs to be broken to signal the end of the uptrend and resumption of the downtrend. Non subscribers click here to access.

The top of the intermediate downtrend channel starts the post holiday week at xxxx, and comes down to roughly xxxx to end the week. If that line holds, then we are still in the midst of a powerful downtrend. If they clear that line, the rally should extend to xxxx.Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –Long term downside cycle projections have already been reached. In recent decades major trends have correlated more with the direction of monetary policy, not with long term cyclicality. I think that it’s too early to conclude that these downside projections are final. I will give more weight to analyzing classical the technical indicator positions and trends such as a conventional measured move target of xxxxx-xxxxx. If the market breaks xxxxx, then the conventional measured move target would be xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Meanwhile, the market is in a counter trend rally. If it clears xxxx this week, it’s likely to head for major resistance around xxxxx in July. Conversely, if it doesn’t clear the top of the trend channel near xxxx this week, the downtrend would remain intact. That would lead to xxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx, with a good chance of a breakdown that would target xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – Breaking xxxx in July could send the SPX hurtling toward the next major support line at xxxx. Conversely, if they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal and is now sitting on the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing a month below that line would be another long term bearish signal.

Cycle Screening Measures – The indicator peaked at +1600 on Monday June 27, and then pulled back but stayed well into positive territory. That was the highest peak since November 2021. In a bull market, that would be a bullish indication for the bigger trend. But since December 2021, each time the indicator exceeded +1000 has immediately preceded a short term top. Since January, each of three such peaks led to declines to lower lows in the market averages. Non subscribers click here to access.

This is consistent with the conventional technical measures suggesting xxx x xxx ahead after this up phase. Non subscribers click here to access.

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader June 27, 2022

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.

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Bulls Have Hope This Week, Bears Wary of Pump

If you believe in signs, miracles, portents, and quantum mechanics, then stock charts and trading screens are for you! Allow me to explain.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

In our search for stocks to add to our swing trade chart picks list, the final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 92 charts with multiple buy signals, and only 5 with more than one sell signal. 3 of the 5 were gold ETFs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were 81 buy signals and 0 sell signals. That’s right. Zero sells. So from a bearish perspective there’s nothing to hang our hats on. After last week’s pump, there’s no hope for dump. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As I prepared to eyeball the charts on the final lists of buys and sells, I was thinking that it’s too late to buy, but I tried to keep an open mind. As I went through the charts, I kept seeing the same thing. They all looked as though they had maybe another day or two of upside before hitting a wall of resistance. So I said, “No thanks.”

But then I saw one that I thought, “Here’s one I can hold and hope.” The symbol was xxxx. It was a sign. I put it on the list. Scientific method, right? Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/20/22 Last week, the list had an average gain of 16.4% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 11.2% per week.

The record gain tells us to expect some giveback this week. I have adjusted trailing stops to protect profits. At the same time, I wanted to allow some wiggle room for dead cat bounces because these charts look destined for a lower low within a couple of weeks, if not immediately.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week, the list had an average gain of 14.9% with an average holding period of 12 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 8.6% per week. That includes picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There was the expected giveback from the week before, but in the end, still a near record performance. That was great, especially considering that everything was short. But because there were signs that the market was sold out the week before, I had tightened the trailing stops. As a result, all 5 of the older picks got stopped out with profits. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The one new pick, xxxx, was a short. Call it luck, or a good job by the screens and my eyes, but it bucked the rally and sold off hard, giving the list a nice boost. As usual, I put it on the list without a stop, but I’m adding one this week to protect the profit, but still allow room for additional price decline. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 10% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 3.8% per week. That’s not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.25%, but trending upward. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 1 open pick and one new pick. The open pick is a short with the symbol xxxx. The new pick is a buy with the symbol xxxx. Hey. I gotta do what I gotta do. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’ve added a stop to xxxx, to protect the profit in case they do, but also allow room for more downside if they don’t. I have added xxxx without a stop in the first week, as usual, because you gotta hold on to xxxx, at least on the first week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’m sorry. I had no choice about that. Because I already had xxxx, I considered adding LIFE, but it was premature. Non-subscribers click here for access.

OK, I’m really sorry this time. I won’t do it again. I promise.

All active picks and those closed out last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader June 26, 2022

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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The Spike Is Here, So Here’s What to Expect

We got the V bottom and spike rally that I was worried about last week. This rally has started a lot like the last two spikes, gaining 275 points in 4 days. The March rally kept going another 150 points. The May rally was exhausted at that point. I’m leaning toward this one xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx x x x. I would not xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx clear signs that xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

As far as whether it’s too late to scalp the upside, I’ll let you know when I run the screens and have looked at the individual charts. Might be a few laggards to ride.

Cycles- This does not look like a new 13 week cycle up phase. The cycle high is ideally due on xxxxxxxxxx. The upside projection of xxxxxxxx was xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s no sign that the 6 month cycle has turned up yet, and its cycle projection has dropped to xxxxxxxxx. Therefore we should still look for a xxxxxxxxxxxxx once this short term up phase xxxxxxxxxxxxx. I would not xxxxxx this rally, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx possible scalp on a stock by stock basis. That depends on the screens digging up any that still have the potential for a pop, or more pop. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – This is headed for the trendline convergence at xxxxxx, where it “should” pivot. If not, then xxxxxx. And if that didn’t hold, then the next target would be around xxxxxxxxxx.

The last spike was good for 348 points from low to exhaustion. The one before that, however, was good for 475 points, with a 1 day pullback about 2/3 of the way up.

This rally has traversed 276 points so far. Based on the last two rallies, and the similar speed of this one, it suggests that this one xxxxxxxxxxxxo, and maybe xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – It’s not yet clear whether longer cycles have turned. The market still needs to end a week above the xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx and above xxxxxxxxxxxxxx resistance. The latter is at xxxx. Clearing that would give the market a good chance of making it back to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The market is back above a long term support trend convergence at 3720. Breaking that at the end of June would suggest that the bear market is about to get much worse. Staying above it would mean that they’ll muddle along in a range for a while longer.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate rebounded sharply from a deep extreme without the usual positive divergence that normally precedes an extended rally. It’s more supportive of the idea of a dead cat on a skewer.

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader June 20, 2022

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.

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Swing Trade Screens – Tank Gawt We’re Not a Long-Only Entity, Poor Bastids

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in just 4 charts with multiple buy signals, and only 20 with more than one sell signal. Considering that we start with a universe of over 10,000 issues, these numbers are minuscule. It tells us that the market is extended on the downside and due for a respite from the selling.

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But there’s no sign of it yet, other than the market seeming to be virtually sold out. There are just too few stocks that have made the turn to power a meaningful rally. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were 23 buy signals and 4 sell signals. These are, again, small numbers. The tilt to the buy side suggests that xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So as I prepared to eyeball the charts on the final lists of buys and sells, I was thinking, “Oh boy, those 4 buys must be something special.” I was chomping at the bit to get some longs on the list in preparation for a dead cat bounce, or more. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I looked at the charts and… meh. One was a well known air package delivery service that looked more like a short setup than a long. One was a biotech, which I avoid like the plague. One was a bakery that moves about a point a year. And one was a minor TV network and content provider. That chart looked good for maybe a 5% move. Not worth the risk here. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So that meant no buys. Then I looked at the 20 final sells. A couple of gold miners showed up, which was disheartening. I won’t short gold miners. I did find one chart that was interesting enough to add as a short. It was xxxx, with a limit price. As with last week’s short side picks, entry will be conditioned on trading at the limit price at some point during the week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week I had 5 conditional short sale picks with sell limit entry prices. Two of them, xxx and xxx got hit, and I added those as shown on the table below. The other 3 never traded near their limit prices. Too bad. They would have been KA CHING, had I just done the usual market price at open. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Is there a lesson in that? Uh… No. If you’re looking for a curveball, and get a fastball instead, eh, that’s baseball. Credit to the pitcher. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week, the list had an average gain of 16.4% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 11.2% per week. Normally that includes picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. Last week, there were no closeouts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

The record gain tells us to expect some giveback this week. I have adjusted trailing stops to protect profits. At the same time, I wanted to allow some wiggle room for dead cat bounces because these charts look destined for a lower low within a couple of weeks, if not immediately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 7.1% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 2.2% per week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This week we start with 5 picks plus the 1 conditional pick. The 5 existing picks are, once again, all short. The 1 new pick is also a short, so the list is still 100% short. I would expect that to change imminently, but I’ll follow the signals and evaluate the charts without bias, to the extent possible. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’ve added stop levels to existing picks, to protect profits and close out picks as they age. While the new pick has a limit entry price, it does not have a stop. I’ll add one next week if this pick is opened, based on hitting its limit price. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All active picks are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time. I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price.

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Watch Out For a V Bottom

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader June 19, 2022

But bear market V bottoms end with different results than bull market V bottoms. The warning applies for a reason other than the one we are accustomed to.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles- Short term cycles are due to bottom now. The 4 week cycle projection of xxxx is done. The projection on cycles of 6-8 weeks points to xxxx. So the most obvious scenario would call for a xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx now, followed quickly by xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Longer cycles are all pointed down, with lows xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx, with a 6 month cycle projection currently pointing to xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – The market would need to end this week above xxxx to get anything going on the upside. Conversely, an early week daily close below xxxx would immediately target xxxx, and if that did not hold, xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The market broke critical support at 3700 last week. Trend support is around xxxx this week. If that breaks, the next target area would be around xxxx, then xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The S&P 500 fell below a long term support trend convergence at xxxx. The next
support level is around xxxx, and below that, xxxx. Long term momentum has edged to a 15 month
low, but has not broken its uptrend channel. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate extended its crash to reach its lowest point since February 2020, during the Covid Crash. It’s the first time it has been below -2000 since then. This suggests that the market is within xxx to xxx months of a bear market low, but xxx xxx xxx xxxxx xxx. Even 1 month is enough time for massive damage. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.

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Swing Trade Screens – Yes, More Shorts But There Are Limits, You Know

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader June 13, 2022

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 5 charts with multiple buy signals, and 118 with more than one sell signal. Of the 5 buys, 4 were inverse funds. Therefore the signals were actually bearish. And the final one was a precious metals ETF. Now, there’s a ringing endorsement for this market!

Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were just 5 buy signals, which, likewise, were all inverse ETFs and a gold ETF. There were 85 sell signals on Friday.

This is like the previous Friday, which also had an overwhelming preponderance of sell signals.

With 118 sells to choose from today, I found plenty of short sale candidates. The problem is that the market got way ahead of us this morning. So I whittled the list down from more than a dozen to just 5, and I will only start those if they hit a limit price equivalent their low price on Friday. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I would not want to follow the usual procedure of just adding them as of Monday’s opening price. Even though they would be likely to work out well over a few weeks, there’s a good chance that Monday’s open will be near the low of the day. An ensuing face ripping dead cat bounce would put these deep in the hole to start if entered on the open. So the entries will be conditioned on trading at those limit prices at some point during the week. Then I’ll adjust on the fly next Monday.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

Last week, the list had an average gain of 8.4% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days, including picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. That worked out to an average gain of 3.2% per week.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Five picks hit their stops last week. All were longs. The average gain on the picks that hit stops was 9.3%. Three picks remained open. All were shorts. I have adjusted stops on the open picks.

Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 7.1% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 2.2% per week. Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 3 picks plus the 5 conditional picks. The 3 existing picks are all short (tank-gawd). The 5 new picks are also shorts, of course.

I’ve added stop levels to existing picks, to protect profits and close out picks as they age. While the new picks have limit entry prices, they don’t have stops. I’ll add them next week to any that are opened based on hitting their limit prices.

All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Remain Calm, All Is Hell

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader June 13, 2022

All hell has broken loose overnight on Sunday night, Monday morning. The S&P futures are already trading at 3820, which is the bottom of the broad intermediate downtrend channel on this chart. The May low has already been broken on the futures. This market is going lower.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles- If the market stays below xxxx this week, it would mean that the slopes of t he bigger waves are accelerating to the downside. The 6 month cycle lower edgeband will be at xxxx this week. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle should have a dead cat bounce at some point this week. Short term cycles are due to xxxxx xxxx this week. But any xxxxxxx should be followed by xxxx xxxxxx xxxxx over a protracted period. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx. There’s no 13 week cycle projection yet. The 4 week cycle projection points to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

13 week and 6 month cycle lows are ideally due in xxxxxxxxxxxx. Any rebounds before that should be xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx. The downtrend must be xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Rule Number Two – The trend is your friend. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – There are two critical support lines around xxxx. If the market breaks xxxx, this could turn into something the likes of which we have not seen since October 1987. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The market is headed for a test of major support in the xxxx-xxxx range this week. Breaking that range would imply a long term measured move target of xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The target should be approximately xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate crashed last week. This breaks the previous short term and intermediate term bullish patterns. 6 month cycle measures are both firmly on the sell side. This will take some weeks to repair, and it is likely to get worse before that repair begins.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.

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Swing Trade Screens – Dipping A Short Toe Before the Next Big Wave

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader June 6, 2022

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 18 charts with multiple buy signals, and 57 with more than one sell signal. On Friday alone there were just 20 buy signals and 113 sell signals.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Those two stats suggest a weak week. But as I pointed out in this week’s market update, the broad market indicators suggest that the up phase should still have a little life before it rolls over. With that context, I said that I’d be cautious about adding shorts.

With 57 sells to choose from, it was hard to resist picking short sales. There were a few that I liked. They’re probably a little early, but the risk reward potential over time seems good. So I chose 3 to add to the list as of Monday’s opening price, xx, xxx, and xxxx. Each would seem to have a bearish narrative as well. Not that that matters, but it enhances my comfort level with the choices.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not that that matters, either. 😁

Last week, the list had an average gain of 8% with an average holding period of 2½ weeks, including picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. That worked out to an average gain of 3.3% per week.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Last week’s overall performance was down from +11% with a similar holding period, in the previous week. We expected this.

Three picks did hit their stops last week. All were longs. One had a nice gain, but it was canceled out by two losers. Five picks remain open. Four have gains. I have again adjusted stops on the open picks.

Meanwhile, picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That works out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. The 3 longs all came since May 16.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 8 picks including the 3 new picks. The 5 older picks are all longs. The 3 new picks are shorts.

I’ve again adjusted stop levels to protect profits and close out picks as they age. The new picks don’t have stops. I’ll add them next week.

All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Here’s Why It’s Too Soon to Go Short Again (Mostly)

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader June 6, 2022

I may regret this headline when I go through the chart pick screens this morning, but at least we have a context. If a chart is ambiguous, I want to come down on the side of caution in terms or whether or not to short. At the same time, xxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx, xxx the individual setup would need to be very powerful for me to want to try to board the bull train at this stage of the rally. Besides, we’re already on it.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles- Short term cycles are due to top out between xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxx, with projected highs of xxxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. But it’s too early for the 13 week and 6 month cycles to top out and roll over. Ideally that would happen in xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxx.

Of course we don’t live in an ideal world, so we need to be alert for signs of an earlier peak.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Third Rail Channels – Potential intermediate term trend resistance starts the week at xxxx and drops by approximately 15 points per day to xxxx on Friday. If that’s cleared, then the target would be resistance around xxxx-xx. Below xxxx-xx, there’s nothing but air to around xxxx.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The turn in late May suggested an intermediate bottom. The rally is also what I call a “return to the scene of the crime,” where the market rallies back to the area of a technical breakdown. The rally could extend to xxxx without negating the negative implications of the breakdown. Any higher would call that into question.

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Monthly Chart – The SPX stabilized above a long term uptrend line at xxxx at the end of May,. If it breaks , the target would be approximately xxxx. If it holds look for resistance around xxxx.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate formed a double peak with the March high. However, the number remains strongly positive; the short term pattern xxxx xxxxxxx, and the intermediate term pattern xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. The market would need to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Monday and/or Tuesday to xxxxxxxxxx short term xxxxxxxxx pattern.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.

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A Great Week for Swing Trade Screen Picks

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader May 31, 2022

Last week, the list had an average gain of 11.2% with an average holding period of 2½ weeks. It was a very good week indeed. We have to be careful though. We’ve seen previously that when the list has double digit gains, the stocks on the list have reversed sharply. So I continue to tighten stops to close out the pick at an opportune time and protect profits.

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The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Last week, 4 picks hit those stops. 3 were shorts put on in early May. The gains on those were 1.1%, 23.3%, and 28.1%, with an average holding period of 3 day. One pick was a natural gas play that whipsawed and still looks good, so I put it back on the list.

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 24 charts with multiple buy signals, and 7 with more than one sell signal.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. I didn’t see any worthy of adding to the list, on either the buy side, or the short-sale side. We’re in an in-between stage where nothing looks particularly interesting either way. So I’ll ride the ones what brung us as shown on the table below.

Picks closed out in May have so far averaged a gain of 3.4% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. There have been 25 closed picks. All were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 8 picks including the one rebuy. All 8 are longs. Six are direct energy plays.

I’ve adjusted stop levels to protect profits and close out picks as they age.

All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Last week we started with 23 picks on the list. There were 6 longs and 17 shorts. I set one to be covered on Monday’s open. 13 others hit their stops during the week and were closed out. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 3.6% with an average holding period of 13 days.

Closed picks closed out in May have so far averaged a gain of 1.4% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen too often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 11 picks including the 2 new ones. 8 of the 11 picks are longs. Only 3 remain short. If the market crashes this week, I’m sorry, but we’ll miss it and hopefully the 8 longs being mostly energy and one precious metal, won’t be among the casualties.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that (subscriber report only).