Menu Close

Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Shot from Guns, This Market Looks Like Puffed Rice

Did I misread the technical indicators last week? I was leaning bearish because of them, even though the liquidity analysis was warning of an oversold reaction rally being imminent. So was the 13 week cycle setup. But the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles still looked bearish. I allowed for a short term rally, but with the proviso that I did not expect it to amount to much, because the longer cycles were still pointing down. “A 13 week cycle low is due in late May or the first half of June, with the projection of 3800-3820 now done. The up phase shouldn’t amount to much with both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles in down phases.”

Fortunately, the chart pick list, which is born of a more mechanistic process that doesn’t allow for much thought pollution from me, was 100% long by mid week last week. The longs that I added early in May are doing really well. Maybe too well. I’ll get to that in the upcoming chart picks update.

As for the broad market as of now, the question is whether the rally will amount to more than “not much.”

This report lays out exactly what to look for, for the answer, including a new price target for the 6 month cycle high, and expected time frames for the 13 week, 6-8 week and 4 week cycles. It shows which price targets have been met, and which haven’t.

Non subscribers click here to access).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Even Steven in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in a near tie. There were 28 charts with multiple buy signals, and 27 with more than one sell signal.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. The charts were as equivocal as the numbers suggested. There were no screaming buys or sells, but I took flyers on XXXX and XXXX on the Buy side. I chose no shorts. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week we started with 23 picks on the list. There were 6 longs and 17 shorts. I set one to be covered on Monday’s open. 13 others hit their stops during the week and were closed out. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 3.6% with an average holding period of 13 days.

Closed picks closed out in May have so far averaged a gain of 1.4% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen too often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 11 picks including the 2 new ones. 8 of the 11 picks are longs. Only 3 remain short. If the market crashes this week, I’m sorry, but we’ll miss it and hopefully the 8 longs being mostly energy and one precious metal, won’t be among the casualties.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

 

Subscription Plans

Market Indicators Show Crash Risk Remains Intact

Last week’s low took out the prior low. The market has been making lower highs and lower lows for over 5 months. That’s a bear market in my book, the Wall Street captured media’s stupid 20% rule notwithstanding.

The breakdown of the top pattern has a conventional measured move price target of xxxx (non subscribers click here to access)..  That’s just for this first leg of the bear market.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Intermediate cycle projections point to xxxx (non subscribers click here to access).

A break of xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) should signal acceleration of the crash.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens

On the week, buy signals overwhelmed sell signals, thanks to Friday’s rebound, but they had the lead earlier in the week as well. The final score for the week was 186 Buys to 125 Sells. That compares with the prior week’s  235 Buys to 147 Sells and 114 Buys to 118 Sells the week before that. However, on Friday alone, there were 101 buys and just 13 sells. This suggests an up week ahead.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists this week resulted in 48 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 3 on the sell side.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 3 buys and no shorts. For the second straight week, all the buys were in the energy business.

Last week we started with 23 picks on the list. There were 3 buys. The rest were short sales. Two picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. I elected to close out one on Monday’s open. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 1.9% with an average holding period of 13 days.

Closed picks in May have so far averaged a gain of 2.9% on an average holding period of 11 days.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen to often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days. The 5 picks closed out in May so far had an average gain of 4.3% on and average holding period of 12 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 23 picks including the 3 new ones. 17 of the 23 picks are short sales.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Market Rebound Still Leaves Crash Risk Intact

Friday’s rally brought the market back above downtrending support lines, but did not break any significant trend resistance lines. I must assume that the bearish intermediate trend remains in force until more evidence to the contrary.

Here’s what we need to look for, including downside price and time projections and key resistance levels that must be broken to break the downtrend. Barring those breakthroughs, crash risk remains. (Non subscribers click here to access).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Buys Beat Shorts in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens

There were more buys than sells in last week’s daily screens. That may be because there so many charts that had triggered sell signals in the prior three weeks, and they were still playing on the sell side. But whatever the cause, the final score for the week was 235 Buys to 147 Sells. That compared with 114 Buys to 118 Sells the week before. However, on Friday alone, there were just 44 buys and 71 sells. Most of the time, Friday tends to set the tone for the next week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.
I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

The final lists this week resulted in 43 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 17 on the sell side. Again, the plurality of buy signals may have merely begin that there were so few charts that had not already gone to the sell side in recent weeks.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 3 buys (all oil and gas related) and 4 shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below.

Last week we started with 21 picks on the list. There were no buys. 21 were short sales. That was an unprecedented tilt in number and unanimity. Five picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 2.8% with an average holding period of 9 days.

I’d like to repeat that every week. Pretty soon we’d be talking real money. 😋

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen too often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days. The 5 picks closed out in May so far had an average gain of 4.3% on and average holding period of 12 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 23 picks including the 7 new ones. 20 of the 23 picks are short sales.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Big Tops Lead to Big, Bad Bear Markets

This market is in the process of completing a huge top. Bear markets that are preceded by huge top patterns tend to last at least 18 months and may go on for as long as 30 months before reaching a final bottom. 1929-33 was an outlier at 42 months. That one lost 90%. We’ve had a couple of 50% off sales in the past 90 years since then.

Cycles – The 13 week cycle appears to be in a down phase headed for a low in xxxx xxxx or the xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx, with a projection range of xxxx-xxxx (Non subscribers click here to access). 6 month and 10-12 month cycles seem to be in down phases that are out of sync with where they should be. That implies that the next longer cycles are in bear markets and are skewing the big intermediate swing cycle waves lower for longer.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Third Rail Chart – The market would need to end the week above xxxx to break the 4 crash channels currently defining the trend. And even if they are clear of xxxx on Friday, that only gives them room for a bigger bounce while not completing a reversal pattern (Non subscribers click here to access)

On the other hand, a daily close below xxxx would open the floodgates on the downside. The proximate target would then be xxxx, and below that xxxx. Such a breakdown would complete an enormous top pattern with a conventional measured move target of xxxx (Non subscribers click here to access).

Long Term Weekly- The 3-4 year cycle top is nearly complete. A breakdown below xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) would confirm. This also looks like a 7 year cycle top. Confirmation will lag.

Monthly Chart – Trend support broke at the end of April. They’d need to end May above xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) to recover within that channel. Trend support is indicated around xxxx in May. If that doesn’t hold, then the target would be a support convergence around xxxx, with the next target xxxx if that fails.

Cycle Screening Measures –  These measures rebounded a bit last week but remain negative overall, and in a xxxxxxxxxx (non subscribers click here to access) pattern on the chart..

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens Yield A Boatload of Short Sales

Last week’s daily screens were surprisingly neutral for the week as a whole. The final score for the week was 114 Buys to 118 Sells. However, many of those buys were inverse funds, so that there was still a modest tilt to the sell side. And on Friday alone, there were just 12 buys and 44 sells, a negative sign for this week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreened that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists this week resulted in 32 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 131 on the sell side. However, of the 32 on the sell side, 15 were inverse funds. That means that nearly 90% of the charts that made the final cut were on the short sale side.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose no buys and 13 shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below. While I don’t track this number, the 13 picks on the short sale side were certainly a record.

Last week we started with 13 picks on the list. 5 were buys, 8 were short sales. Four picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. I closed another as of the opening New York price last Monday. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 2.4% with an average holding period of 10 days.

April was a challenging month. Picks closed out in April had an average gain of 0.9% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days. Yep, it was choppy. March was the first full month where I used multiple days of screening. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we will start with 21 picks on the list including the 13 new ones. All 21 picks are short sales. That’s a first. If there’s a V-shaped reversal, it’s gonna leave a mark.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table in the report. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Market Outlook Going from Bad to Worse, Fast

Downtrend channels are steepening as liquidity dries up, and wave amplitude increases. It is violent, and could be increasingly so to the xxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxx xxxxx (non subscribers click here to access).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – The 6 month cycle up phase was truncated early. An initial downside projection points to xx-xxxxx (non subscribers click here to access). Both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycle lows are ideally due from xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (non subscribers click here to access).

The 13 week cycle low is ideally due xxxx xx to xxxx xx (non subscribers click here to access), with a new projection of xxxx. The 6-8 week cycle low is due xxxx, with the projection range reaching xxxx

The premature failure of the 6 month and 10-12 month cycle up phases have set up a test of a support convergence around xxxx (non subscribers click here to access). Breaking that would suggest a crash that could be similar to that of xxxxxxxxxx, or even worse.

Third Rail Chart – To break the crash they’ll now need to at least break a trendline running from xxxx to xxxx this week (non subscribers click here to access). On the other hand, if they break the February low of 4214 this could xxxx xxxx xxxx, xxxx. Minor support is indicated around xxxx and xxxx. A more likely target would be around xxxx on May xx. But it could just as easily get there by xxxx xxx xxxxxx if the market breaks down on Monday.

Long Term Weekly- The 3-4 year cycle top is nearly complete. A breakdown below xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) would confirm. This also looks like a 7 year cycle top. Confirmation will lag.

Monthly Chart – Trend support broke at the end of April. They’d need to end May above xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) to recover within that channel. Trend support is indicated around xxxx in May. If that doesn’t hold, then the target would be a support convergence around xxxx, with the next target xxxx if that fails.

Cycle Screening Measures – All measures are weak and support a xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx term outlook.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip Flop

No surprise, last week’s daily screens tilted to the sell side. The final score for the week was 148 Buys to 187 Sells. That’s still a lot of buys, but that was Monday to Wednesday. That got reversed and then some on Thursday and Friday.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

On Friday alone, there were just 19 buys and 144 sells That bodes ill for this week.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday for the holiday shortened week. I then rescreened that output, for additional signals in the progression on Wednesday and Thursday. The final lists this week resulted in 67 chart pick candidates on the buy side and just 8 on the sell side. Slim pickings for shorts this week.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose no buys and 7 shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below.

Last week we started with 8 picks on the list. 6 were buys, 2 were short sales. Two picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. I will close another as of the opening New York price this morning. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 2.2% with an average holding period of 12 days.

Picks closed out in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Picks closed out in April so far have had an average gain of 0.8% with an average holding period of 11 days. Yep, it has been choppy.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we will start with 12 picks on the list including the 7 new ones. 4 are buys. 8 are shorts. I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table in the report (non-subscribers click here for access). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans