Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Last week’s daily screens tilted to the sell side again. The final score for the week was 125 Sells to 82 Buys. This was the third straight week with a plurality of sells. Prior to this 3 week run, buy signals had held the edge for 3 weeks.

On Friday April 8 alone, there were 11 buys and 41 sells, portending a soft start for this week.

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The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists this week resulted in 8 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 15 on the sell side.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 1 buy and 2 shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below (subscriber version).

Last week we started with 9 picks on the list. 5 were buys, 4 were short sales. Three picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 5.3% with an average holding period of 11 days.

Picks closed out in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. The use of leverage and options will magnify both gains and losses.

Likewise, it would be nice if we could annualize these numbers, but reality doesn’t work that way. Some months have what traders euphemistically call “drawdowns” — losses by any other name.

This week we will start with 9 picks on the list including the 3 new ones. 3 are buys. 6 are shorts.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (subscriber version only). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Last week’s daily screens tilted away from the buy side and toward the sell side for a second straight week. The final score for the week was 254 Sells to only 45 Buys. The previous week it was 122 to 51, Sells over Buys.   Prior to that, the balance had consistently tilted to the buy side since March 4.

3/28/22 The preponderance of sell signals last week suggests that it’s time for a consolidation, at least. However, when I reviewed the final screen of the week’s previous signals, I didn’t see anything I liked as a short sale.

This weekend was a different story. I found 4 charts that I liked enough to add to the list as short sales.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On Friday, April 1 alone, there were 10 buys and 46 sells, despite a bit of a recovery in the market averages.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists resulted in zero chart pick candidates on the buy side and 26 on the sell side.

I found that surprising, but I’ve learned not to argue with the numbers. Most of the time they foreshadow what’s coming pretty accurately.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 4 shorts to add to the list (subscriber version only).

Adding those picks this week leave the list with 5 open buys and 4 shorts. It suggests a transitional or mixed market without a strong trend.

Last week we started with 8 picks on the list. All were buys, no shorts. Three picks hit their stops and were closed as of the stop price. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 3.4% with an average holding period of 10 days. That compared with an average gain of 2.0% and average holding period of one week in the previous week.

The week before saw an average gain of 5.3% with an average holding period of two weeks. This was with mostly longs. The week before that saw an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. That was with all shorts. So the screening method reversed positions right on time, in going from short to long.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (subscriber version only). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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When I ran the data the raw daily totals for last week, there was a surprise. They ended with a solid edge to the sell side. The final score for the week was 122 to 51, Sells over Buys. The week before, buys had a solid edge, 185 to 71. That compared with 187 to 146 Buys over Sells, the week before that. Buys also led three weeks ago. The balance had been consistently tilted to the buy side since March 4.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The preponderance of sell signals last week suggests that it’s time for a consolidation, at least. However, when I reviewed the final screen of the week’s previous signals, I didn’t see anything I liked as a short sale.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

On Friday, March 25 alone, there were 23 buys and 25 sells. It seems to contradict the gain in the market averages Friday, but it’s narrow enough and small enough to indicate that it’s merely a function of the fact that the buy train has left the station. It’s not a sign that the train has reached the end of the line.

I screened the lists of previous daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. From that ouput, I looked for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists resulted in 12 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 15 on the sell side. I reviewed those visually, and also looked at final signals triggered the week before.

After reviewing those charts, I chose 3 to add to the list (subscriber version only). All were on the buy side. This string of all buys is now 3 weeks old. That’s a shift from the prior 3 months when all picks were on the short sale side.

Adding those buys this week leave the list with no open shorts and 8 buys.

Last week we started with 7 picks on the list. There were two shorts and the rest buys. The shorts hit their stops with small losses. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave the list average gains of 2.0% with an average holding period of a week.

The week before saw an average gain of 5.3% with an average holding period of two weeks. This was with mostly longs. The week before that saw an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. That was with all shorts. So the screening method reversed positions right on time, in going from short to long.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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The raw daily data for last week ended with a solid edge to the buy side. The final score for the week was 185 to 71, Buys over Sells. That compared with 187 to 146 Buys over Sells, the week before, and 188-153 in favor of Buys the week before that. The balance has been consistently tilted to the buy side since March 4. We were forewarned, but suspending disbelief was my psychological obstacle. Ideally, I would have gone with more buy picks last week, instead of just a lonely, one.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

On Friday, March 18 alone, there were 21 buys and 10 sells. This tilt supports the strategy of staying mostly on the buy side for now.

I screened the lists of previous daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. From that output, I looked for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists resulted in 9 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 3 on the sell side. I reviewed those visually, and also looked at final signals triggered the week before.

After reviewing those charts, I chose 4 to add to the list (subscriber version only). All were on the buy side. This is a shift from the past 3 months when all picks were on the short sale side until last week. This will leave the list with 2 open shorts, both REITs, and 5 buys.

Last week we started with 7 picks on the list. One was a buy; the rest were short sales. 4 of them hit their trailing stops, and were closed out from the list as of that print. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 5.3% with an average holding period of two weeks. Not bad, but a bit of giveback from the record 10% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days the week before. The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Had I been able to suspend my disbelief that the market might be turning, I would have added more buys last week. But the psychological stumbling blocks still remain, after all these years.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (subscriber version only).

Charts of new and open picks are below that

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

Last week we had 8 picks on the list, all shorts. 4 of them hit their trailing stops, and were closed out from the list as of that print. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 10% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This is the best list performance since I began this experiment in 2017. The prior week saw an average gain of 3.3% on 15 picks with average holding period of 10 calendar days.

Previous “best” performances have been a sign to close out, but I will follow the discipline here of merely adjusting trailing stops on the 4 remaining picks. This week I am adding 3 new picks to the list (subscriber version only).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The raw daily data for last week ended with a slight edge to the buy side. The final score for the week was 187 to 146 Buys over Sells. That compared with the prior week’s 188-153 in favor of buys.

This is from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

The slight edge to the buy side over the past two weeks has not yet been enough to turn the market. It will take much more of a tilt than this to get anything going on the upside. These signals suggest that a choppy rangebound trend remains in force.

On Friday, March 11 alone, there were just 23 buys and 17 sells. Those are low numbers supporting the choppy trading range thesis.

I screened the lists of previous daily buys and sells for the first part of the week, looking for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists resulted in 20 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 7 on the sell side. I reviewed those visually. Despite the plurality of buys, the trend structures were weak. There were few setups that looked like good entry points. On the other side, most of the sell candidates were extended near support.

After reviewing all 27 charts, I chose 3 to add to the list, two shorts, and one buy. This was the first buy since one lonely buy on December 6. Other than that, all picks have been on the short side since then. That will leave the list with 6 open shorts and one buy.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (subscriber version only). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

The picks that remain open, and those closed out last week are shown on the table below  Charts of open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans