Category: 2 – Technical Trader

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xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version)

Why beware? Well, usually, when the market does exactly what I have posed as the likely outlook for a few weeks, the time is about due for us to get a good slap in the face as a reminder to stay humble.

The other reason is that if I continue to be right, this market will get a lot worse fast. That’s great if you are short stocks, and ranges toward terrible depending on how long you are. If you are a “long only,” money manager and you’re all in cash, then you might end up feeling pretty good too.

But the temptation will be to buy the dip. The success of that will depend on both your market timing and your holding period horizon. This is not your same old, same old, Fed policy driven bull market any more.

Remember Rule Number One. Don’t fight the Fed.

Cycles There are signs that 13 week and 6 month cycles xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). However, xxxx xxxx phases are also periods of higher vulnerability for sharp declines into the low. Short term cycles are xxxx . The 4 week cycle is in a xxxx xxxx. The 6-7 week cycle has not xxxx xxxx but it appears to be xxxx xxxx xxxx. That suggests an xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx if the market follows through on xxxx xxxx .

Third Rail Chart – All of the conditions of the outlook we had for the last two weeks have been met. Now, there’s an interim support level at 4390-4400. If it holds, xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). If it breaks, the next area to look for support would be around xxxx xxxx.

Long Term Weekly– The market made a typical intermediate term xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). by breaking a long term wave channel, then xxxx xxxx xxxx. Given the rollover in the 3-4 year cycle indicators, the rebound in the market suggests only a limited xxxx xxxx xxxx.

So far, there’s no material change in the long term projections of xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version), but I now believe that they are wrong and will not be met. I’m giving these no weight, and instead focusing on the price patterns, support breaks, and cycle indicators to show us the way.

Monthly Chart – The market now needs to be above xxxx (subscriber version) at the end of February to get back into the two uptrend channels. Failure to do that would imply the beginning of top formation. If that does not happen, the target in February would be (subscriber version).

Cycle screening measures are in a short term bearish configuration, with the intermediate term leaning (subscriber version). Market weakness this week would (subscriber version). A rally this week would suggest (subscriber version). A bear market 6 month cycle up phase would be much shorter and cover less ground than a bull market up phase.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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The cycle picture is mixed but leaning toward starting xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). phase. How far will it get? My guess is “not very.” Nor is there much indication of significant near term xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version).  Just beware if the market is weak early this week. That would suggest structural problems that could lead to xxxx xxxx xxxx . Crashes happen when apparent bottoms drop out.

Here are the particulars.

Cycles are now opposed. The outlook is more bearish if the market xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). , more bullish if not. The 10-12 month, 6 month, and 13 week cycles all still appear to be xxxx xxxx xxx. The two longer cycles hit initial downside projections, but xxxx xxxx xxxx. The 13 week cycle projection is still xxxx. The 6-7 week and 4 week cycles are in up phases, with a 4 week cycle peak due now.

The 6 month cycle low is ideally due between xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). Strength early this week would suggest that the 6 month cycle xxxx xxxx xxxx.

Third Rail Chart- The downtrend is intact for now. It would need to clear xxxx this week to break the first downtrend channel. Then subsequently it would need to break xxxx to get something more bullish going. On the other hand, a daily close below xxxx would signal that more declines are likely. A close below xxxx would break a long term uptrend. A close below xxxx would confirm the bear market.

Long Term Weekly- The market made a typical intermediate term bottoming signal by breaking a long term wave channel, then recovering within it. Given the rollover in the 3-4 year cycle indicators, the rebound in the market suggests xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version)

So far, there’s no material change in the long term projections of xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version), but I now believe that they are wrong and will not be met. I’m giving these no weight, and instead focusing on the price patterns, support breaks, and cycle indicators to show us the way.

Monthly Chart – The market now needs to be above xxxx at the end of February to get back into the two uptrend channels. Failure to do that would imply the beginning of xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). If that does not happen, the target in February would be xxxx xxxx .

Cycle screening measures made a lower high than the December and January peaks, at least so far. The prior low was also lower than the previous one. Therefore the intermediate term pattern xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version) However, other indications are more bullish. The outlook is therefore xxxx xxxx xxxx . If the rally xxxx xxxx xxxx more bullish and that should play out into xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). If the market declines early in the week, the numbers will turn negative again and confirm the bear market.

The cumulative cyclical breadth index stopped confirming the bull market in August 2020. This shows concentration of buying in fewer and fewer big stocks. Such long periods of negative divergence between market breadth and price indexes often precede bear markets. I will keep you posted on how the pattern is playing out this time.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Today is a big day. I’m about to board a flight to Nice, France, where I’ll be making my home, hopefully for many years of sunshine, good health, and the good life of the South of France. Not to mention, good times producing these reports for you! It is the culmination of years of planning and delays, but the day is finally here.

Normally I post the swing trade chart picks on Monday but because of today’s little jaunt, this week I will post that report on Tuesday.

II will see you in Nice!

A plus tard!!

Lee

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The extra layer of screens that I instituted for swing trade chart picks last week, and a cooperative market, paid off in a big way.

The list had been empty for two weeks after the market shook me out of a slew of earlier short picks that were just a tad too early. I added 9 picks as of the open last Tuesday, all on the short side.

At Friday’s close the average gain was 9.5% and the average holding period was 4 calendar days! That’s all cash, no margin, no options, no leverage of any kind. It more than reverses the battle I lost with my own stupidity at the turn of the year.

Although maybe it wasn’t stupidity. As it turned out, those short picks would have been huge winners had I just stayed asleep for another couple of weeks, Rip Van Winkle like.

Meanwhile, last week was by far the best weekly record since I began this experiment for you a couple of years ago. Considering that the S&P 500 lost 5.7% on the week, I’ll allow for some self back-patting after my self-flagellation of prior weeks. Let’s face it, sometimes the market whips us. That’s why they’re called whipsaws. First they whip you. Then they saw you in half.

Please, no calls from trading rights activists. No actual trades are harmed in the performance of these lab experiments. Results have not been peer reviewed nor replicated under real world conditions. If you attempt to replicate these experiments, your results may differ.

Daily Data Table (subscriber version only).The raw daily data for last week as a whole tilted to the sell side, which would seem obvious. But it wasn’t lopsided. There’s no sign of massive capitulation or widespread downside thrust either.

I must assume that this means that this selloff can get a lot worse. That’s not carved in stone of course, but I want to be open to the possibility, and not cut off the profit potential of an extended decline by setting trailing stops too tight.

Screening on all days of the week, as opposed to just Friday is an extra layer of work that allows me to see the progression of short term sell signals on every one of over 10,000 stocks on the NYSE and Nadsac. I had been running just Friday’s screens, in the belief that once a week was enough. But the results were ragged. So I went to daily screens with the added filter of a Friday re-screen on the charts that qualified.

The next step is to take all the stocks that had signals on any day during the week, and run the buys through a re-screen for buy signals on Friday, and the sells through another screen for sell signals on Friday. That resulted in a buy side screen on the 85 charts that had had one or more buy signals over the prior 5 sessions. The final sell side screen was run on the 122 charts with prior daily sell signals.

Those final screens for Friday resulted in 21 charts with buy signals and 46 with sell signals. The buy setups looked like they might be candidates for dead cat bounces after mostly getting slaughtered last week. No thanks. I’ll leave them off this week. This is not about grabbing quick pops.

The sells had mostly been beaten to death. They could get worse, but they might also have vicious 2 day spike rallies from already deeply extended positions. No thanks to those, too. But there were two that weren’t so extended and looked to be early in downturns. I added those to the list as you can see on the table below (subscriber version only), and in the charts that follow.

Meanwhile, I added trailing stops to the 9 charts already on the list. These have daily price adjustments as shown, with Monday’s starting stop price, minus the reduction per day thereafter.

The table and charts of open and new picks are below (subscriber version only).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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Starting fresh this week, after closing out the last pick as of last Monday’s open, I am making some tactical adjustments going forward. First, I am now incorporating screens from the whole week, not just Friday. In that way I hope to snare charts going through a progression of short term buy signals leaving them more likely to move sooner, and in the right direction.

I will continue to (mostly) forego stops in the first week that a pick is added to the list. But I will avoid the stupidity of being overconfident after having some success for a few weeks, and then going on vacation without having trailing or protective stops in place.

I continue to feel that stops should only be used as triggers for exiting trades that we want to close out. That would include both those that have gone well and those that have not. I still do not like arbitrary stop loss as a strategy to reduce loss, because it has equal or greater potential to reduce profits on trades that ultimately turn into big winners. Stop running and false breakouts and breakdowns are time honored strategies of dealers and big speculators. Such whipsaws often lead to big moves.

The raw data for last week as a whole showed a preponderance of buy signals. But lo and behold, when I ran a screen on Friday just on the universe of stocks that had had signals earlier in the week, there were just 4 that had short term buy signals on Friday, versus 42 on the sell side!

I reviewed those 46 charts for structures that looked promising. I chose 9 shorts, shown on the table below.

Sticking my neck out, for sure, but those 9 charts look well positioned to roll over in the weeks ahead. I think that some patience will be needed. They may or may not pop a bit in the short run, so I’m giving them room to breathe without stops for now. It’s a risky strategy, but it’s consistent with the liquidity outlook and the intermediate term technical outlook for the overall market.

The table and charts of open and new picks are below (subscriber version only).

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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