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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Swing Trade Screens Yield More Sells than Buys Again

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 11 buys and 33 sells. That compares with 15 buys and 40 sells the Friday before.

1238 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 3.5% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal. Despite the preponderance of sell signals, there’s no evidence of broad downside thrust. It is just a narrow pullback/consolidation.

Picks are summarized in the table below (subscriber version only). I will bail out on one of them, XXXX, to possibly revisit at a later date. That will leave 8 on the list. Including the bailee, the list showed an average gain of 4.5% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days.

I’m again foregoing stops. This tactic has paid off recently. It doesn’t guarantee that it always will but my backtesting in the past has shown that stops don’t work. They don’t protect against gap losses, and they take out positions that subsequently recover. More often than not, it pays to wait for the rebound to minimize losses on trades that go the wrong way. The conventional wisdom about stops, like much Wall Street conventional wisdom, is wrong.

In my opinion, the way to control risk isn’t to use stops. It is to spread risk among several positions.
That way, if one takes a hit, there are enough other selections that there’s room for the ones that are going to run the right way, to do so. That should offset losses on the ones that don’t go as expected. And the ones that go the wrong way can still be maximized by using TA to the best advantage for the subsequent exit.

Of course, no trading method is perfect. There will always be losses and drawdowns. For now, these are the tactics and strategy that I’ve decided to run with. This is for informational and entertainment purposes, not individual investment advice. You must do what’s right for you.

After reviewing the charts, I saw nothing compelling. There are no new picks. I’ll sit tight with what we already have which is 5 longs and 3 shorts. The table and charts of open picks are below.

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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Stock Pause That Refreshes

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Short term cycles look to be headed for a breather. But don’t expect much downside.

I must now rate the 10-12 month cycle as xxxxxxx , with a strong possibility that it has begun xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version only). The 6 month cycle is early in an up phase. The 13 week cycle is in an up phase, with an updated projection of xxxx.

Short term cycles have entered what should be consolidations lasting a couple of weeks. They may manifest as merely a slowing in the rate of advance or a trading range.

On the third rail chart the SPX broke out to a new high and continued its climb in the upper half of its short term uptrend channel. The top of the short term channel starts the week at xxxx and rises to end the week at xxxx.

Above that are multiple intermediate and long term trendlines around xxxx (subscriber version only). If broken the SPX could run to xxxx. or even xxxx..

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxx to xxxx. for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxx at the end of November (subscriber version only). .

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at xxxx in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxx would set a course toward xxxx in November and possibly xxxx in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures are in a pullback but remain generally bullish.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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More Sells Than Buys in Screen, But I Added Two Buys This Week

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 15 buys and 40 sells. That compares with 24 buys and 25 sells the Friday before.

1232 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 4.4% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal. Despite the preponderance of sell signals, there’s no evidence of broad downside thrust. This is just a narrow pullback.

Picks are summarized in the table below. 1 was closed and 7 were still open, with an average gain of 1.7% on an average holding period of 16 calendar days.

I’m again mostly foregoing stops, with one exception. My thought is that if one takes a hit, I’d look to exit subsequently. There are enough selections that risk is spread sufficiently so that I can give room for the ones that are going to run the right way, room to do so. That should offset losses on the ones that don’t go as expected.

After reviewing the charts, I chose 2 to add to the list this week. Both are buys. They’re shown on the table. All charts of the new picks and open picks are below.

Table (subscriber version only)

Charts (subscriber version only)

Charts

 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

 

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Stocks Look Ready for Another Liftoff

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Is the stock market getting ready to blast off again? There are hints on the charts that say the answer to that question looks like yes.

Cycles 6 month cycle indicators are now confirming a new up phase in that cycle. It’s ideally due to last anywhere from xx to xx weeks (subscriber version only). There’s no projection yet. A new 13 week cycle projection points to xxxx, due by xxxxxx xx.

On the third rail chart the SPX needs to clear 4576 to break a flat intermediate channel. The top of the short term channel rises from xxxx to xxxx (subscriber version only). Above that are multiple intermediate and long term trendlines between xxxx and xxxx. If the SPX breaks through those, we could see a massive, upside explosion. Conversely, a rollover below xxxx would only lead initially to a pullback to xxxx.

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxx to xxxx for cycles of up to 7 years.  The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxx at the end of xxxxxxxx (subscriber version only).

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the uptrend channel remains intact. SPX would need to end October below xxxx to break the uptrend channel. If the uptrend stays intact, the market could head for a very long term resistance trend at xxxx (subscriber version only).

The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures remain bullish.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Patience Pays Off With Swing Trade Chart Picks This Week

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This Friday’s screens had 24 buys and 25 sells. That compares with the previous Friday’s 25 buy signals and 17 sell signals. Friday’s strength in the market averages was neither broad, nor monolithic.

1273 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 3.8% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal.

Current picks are summarized in the table below. 5 were still open, with an average gain of 1.3% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. I’m closing out one loser, using the opening price Monday for tracking purposes.

I’m again mostly foregoing stops. My thought is that if one takes a hit, I’d look to exit subsequently. There are enough selections that risk is spread sufficiently so that I can give room for the ones that are going to run the right way, room to do so. That should offset losses on the ones that don’t go as expected.

After reviewing the charts, I chose 3 to add to the list this week. Surprisingly, only one was a buy. The other two were shorts. They’re shown on the table below (subscriber version only). All charts of the new picks and open picks are below. (subscriber version only)

Table

Charts

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

 

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Bullish Intermediate Term Omens

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles The market confirmed the prior indications of xxxxxxx (subscriber version only) in cycles up to 13 weeks, as well as a probable 6 month cycle xxxx.

Initial short term cycle projections point to xxxx (subscriber version only), which would be a xxxx xxxx xxxx. There are no projections yet for cycles of 13 weeks to 6 months, and no indication yet of a 10-12 month cycle upturn. That will be signaled by what happens when the previous high of 4550 is tested.

On the third rail chart there now appears to be a flat intermediate channel. Support is at least week’s low of 4279. Resistance is indicated at the September high of 4546. A measured move indication coming out of this upside reversal points to xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version only).

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxx to xxxx for cycles of up to 7 years (subscriber version only).

Long term momentum indicators suggest xxxxxxxx for xxxxx (subscriber version only). They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the uptrend channel remains intact. SPX would need to end October below 4275 to break the uptrend channel. If the uptrend stays intact, the market could head for a very long term resistance trend at xxxx (subscriber version only).

The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures have confirmed the uptrend and given an intermediate term xxxxx (subscriber version only) xxxx by xxxxxxx an 11 month trend of declining peaks.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Deadly Ambiguity With Big Profit Potential

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Rangebound markets tend to generate a lot of whipsaw signals that are just noise. I call rangebound markets “meat grinders” for a reason. They tend to crush systems designed to find 3-6 week swings. I try to avoid the worst of that, while allowing picks room to move around before breaking out in the expected direction.

What makes rangebound markets interesting is that when the market finally does break out, one way or the other, a big move tends to follow. Furthermore, the initial move out of the range tends to be explosive. To take advantage of that, it’s necessary to take positions in advance in charts that appear to have potential to do that, even though many won’t. The idea is that one or two big movers will more than compensate for the ones that bleed.

1357 stocks met the initial screening criteria in the current screen. 3.1% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal. There were 25 buys and 17 sells. That compares with the previous Friday’s 56 buy signals and 7 sell signals. This marks 2 straight weeks with more buys than sells after a string of four Fridays with a majority of sell signals.

All charts have a measure of ambiguity, especially in these rangebound environments. This week’s degree of ambiguity seemed even greater than usual. As I reviewed the 52 charts with signals, I saw a lot of “on the one hand – on the other hand.” I ended up choosing none of them. I’ll stand pat with what we currently have on the list.

Current picks are summarized in the table below (subscriber version only). I’m foregoing stops this week to give room for something to happen one way or another. My thought is that if one takes a hit, I’d look to exit on the recoil. But I want to give room for the ones that are going to run the right way, room to do so.

Table (subscriber version only)

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

 

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Head and Shoulders Above

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles up to 13 weeks appear to have turned up. The 6 month cycle also should be turning but indicators are less clear. With cycles of up to 13 weeks turning up, there’s room to move to xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version only). If the 6 month cycle is also turning as seems likely, then the market should break out xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx, with a target of xxxx (subscriber version only). The likely time frame would be Q1 2022. However, a stall and rollover at either xxxx or xxxx could lead to a downside resolution. Given the longer term structures, I’m leaning toward xxxx xxxxx xxxx , but have antenna up for any sign of change.

On the third rail chart the market has set up a beautiful head and shoulders top pattern, which may now be forming a second right shoulder. Or it could break the pattern right here. The pattern is perfectly symmetrical in price and time. What does that mean (subscriber version only)?

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxx to xxxx for cycles of up to 7 years (subscriber version only).

Long term momentum indicators suggest xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version only). They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 the uptrend channel remains intact. SPX would need to end October below xxxx to break the uptrend channel. If the uptrend stays intact, the market could head for a very long term resistance trend at xxxx (subscriber version only).

The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Avoid the Meat Grinder, Pick Only Wieners

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

This Friday’s screens had 56 buys and 7 sells. That compares with the previous Friday’s 16 buy signals and 28 sell signals. This breaks a string of four straight weeks with a majority of sell signals in Friday screens.

1376 stocks met the initial screening criteria. 4.6% of them rendered signals on Friday. The rest were already moving in the direction of the most recent signal. Likewise, rangebound markets tend to generate a lot of whipsaw signals that are just noise. It’s important to look for and try to avoid that when choosing potential swing trades.

With that in mind, I chose 4 charts to add to the list. They are xxx, xxx, xxx, and xxx (subscriber version only). I’ll track those as of Monday’s opening prices.

Last week reversed a string of 4 straight losing weeks, with an average gain of 2% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days.

Rangebound markets generate lots of whipsaw signals, which are rough on a system designed to ferret out 3-4 week swings. I’ve called them meat grinder markets. I put out a lot of hamburger in September. I’m working on avoiding that while keeping toes in the water to catch the next wave.

Overall performance is summarized in the table below (subscriber version only) .

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

Subscription Plans

 

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Mixed Bag May Hold October Bear Treats

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The cycle indications are a mixed bag this week. The market should be coming off a test of a 13 week and 6-8 week cycle low, but indicators xxx xxxxxxx (subscriber version only). There are still a couple of cycle projections that suggest the possibility of slightly lower lows around xxxx-xx (subscriber version only). A xxxx xxxxxxx in the market averages would be necessary this week to confirm an upturn in those cycles. Otherwise, the flat down phases in 6 month and 10-12 month cycles could turn from ho hum to nasty absolute downturns.

On the third rail chart we see a completed head and shoulders top pattern that measures to 4200. Friday’s rebound came back to a broken trendline, which is a normal return to the scene of the crime after a breakdown. If the market clears xxxx (subscriber version only), however, it would be short term bullish.

On the weekly chart, the long term uptrend is bending, but it remains unbroken. The xxxxx (subscriber version only) area is now a critical fulcrum. If it creates space to the upside, then the market could trundle up along the next trendline, or accelerate if it breaks through. That line rises from about xxxx to xxxx in October. The SPX would need to break xxxx to signal an intermediate downtrend.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks. We’re on the lookout for that.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 started a new monthly bar. The uptrend channel remains intact. SPX would need to end October below 4xxx (subscriber version only) to break the uptrend channel. If that happened, the target would be 3900-4000. If the uptrend stays intact, the market could head for a very long term resistance trend at xxxx.

The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures are weaker than the market averages and are not in position to render strong bullish signals this week. Both the intermediate term and longer term trends in this indicator are weak, suggesting more stocks are struggling than the market averages are showing.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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