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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Chart Picks – 4 New Picks From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

This Friday’s screens had 27 buy signals and 3 sell signals. This indicates no thrust for the market as a whole. But it shows even less drag. Given that over 1200 stocks met the initial screening criteria, most stocks are either trending or drifting in a range.

I did like a number of the setups, and will add 4 picks to the list on the long side as of Monday’s open. These are xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, and xxxx. Charts below (shown in subscriber report).

Previous open picks ended the week with an average gain of 2.3% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. Two picks were stopped out last week. One will be closed as of the opening price on Monday. That leaves 4 open picks. Three are longs. One is a short.

Get the newest picks and review their charts and those of existing picks in today’s report. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

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Here are the Keys as the Stock Market Trend is Intact, But on Edge

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Cycles still have an upward bias. But a 10-12 month cycle high is now ideally due within xxxx xxxx (in subscriber version).  The next sharp break to the downside should mark the xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) of the 10-12 month and 6 month cycles.

The 13 week cycle appears to have made a xxxx (subscriber version) last week. That could spell xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) for what should be the final days of the 10-12 month cycle up phase.

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On the third rail chart a key intermediate term channel and a long term channel held. Trend support rises from xxxx-xxxx (in subscriber report), with a second support line just below that. Both would need to be broken to signal reversal.

On the weekly chart, xxxx is a very important level this week. If they close below it, it should mark the beginning of top formation for this cycle. However, it would be unlikely to be the highest high. Long term cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx with highs due between xxxx and xxxx (subscribers only).

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 would need to end August below 4200 to signal a potential reversal of the uptrend. If the SPX clears long term trend resistance around xxxx, the target would rise to 4600.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures weakened but the intermediate remains tenuously bullish. Weakness this week could reverse that. Strength will confirm the trend and suggest another extension.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Chart Picks – 25 Buy Signals and 41 Sell Signals Give Us These Picks

Open picks ended the week with an average gain of 1.9% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days.

This Friday’s screens had a bearish tilt, with 25 buy signals and 41 sell signals. This indicates slight drag, and even less thrust for the market as a whole. But these short term sell signals don’t mean much when most stocks are trending.

Get the newest picks and review their charts and those of existing picks in today’s report. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

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Here Are the Stock Market’s Latest Targets

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A 10-12 month cycle high is now ideally due within xxxxxxxx (in subscriber report), with a final projection of 4440.

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But the 13 week and 6 month cycles appear to be in trending mode, with no projections. Shorter term cycles remain in up phases. The 6-7 week cycle has a projection of xxxx (subscriber report).

On the third rail chart the market has formed a new short term channel. It’s lower bound rises from around 4450 to 4500 this week. Additional multiple support lines are rising just below that. The lowest is heading for xxxxx (subscriber report) this week. That needs to break to consider the possibility of a downside reversal.

On the weekly chart, long term cycle momentum has broken out. This suggests that the market could go higher for longer, which means perhaps 4-6 months, or perhaps years. Cycle oscillators are also very strong. This isn’t set up for a top. Trend support is now at 4370. Resistance and a possible near term target is at xxxx (subscribers only).

Long term cycle projections point to xxxx to- xxxx with highs due between August and xxxxx.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 would need to end August below 4200 to signal a potential reversal of the uptrend. If the SPX clears long term trend resistance around 4500, the target would rise to xxxx.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures remain bullish.

The chart picks report will be posted on Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Chart Picks – 41 Buy Signals and 28 Sell Signals Give Us 3 Picks

The limited number of open picks managed a slight positive last week as the market edged to a new high by a hair. There were 3 open longs and one open short.

This Friday’s screens had a bullish tilt, with 41 buy signals and 28 sell signals. This indicates minimal thrust and some drag but it’s enough to keep the averages churning higher in small increments.

I liked the setups on xxx, and xxx as longs, and xxx (in subscriber report) as a short. I will track these as of Monday’s opening price.

Get the newest picks and review their charts and those of existing picks in today’s report. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

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We’re There, And Here’s Where That Is

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A 10-12 month cycle high is now ideally due within xxxxxxxx (in subscriber report), with a final projection of 4440 and a 13 week cycle high is ideally due on xxxxx, this week.

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We’re there, but would I bet on it? No. Short term cycles are bullish, and both the 6 month and 13 week cycles seem to be trending. So I would like to see evidence that the trend is broken.

I don’t mind being a little late at the top. Betting on the short side has been a tough way to make money.

On the third rail chart the market continues rising within multiple channels. Short term channel support rises from 4400 to 4435 this week. Additional multiple support lines rising from around xxxx and xxxx should contain any pullback. Major trend support is around xxxx (subscriber report). Only if all of those are broken could is a significant reversal possible.

On the weekly chart long term cycle momentum broke out last week, ending a negative divergence. This suggests that the market could go higher for longer, which means perhaps xxxx months, or xxxxx. Cycle oscillators are also very strong. This isn’t set up for a top.

Trend support is now at xxxxx. Resistance and a possible near term target is at xxxx.

Long term cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx with highs due between xxxx and xxxx.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 would need to end August below 4200 to signal a potential reversal of the uptrend. If the SPX clears long term trend resistance around 4500, the target would rise to xxxx.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures remain bullish.

The chart picks report will be posted on Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Chart Picks – Trading Range Death Trap Yields Two Picks

While the market averages edged to new highs last week, that’s deceptive as most stocks stayed rangebound. That’s a death trap for swing trades, and it depressed performance for a third straight week.

This Friday’s screens were bearish, with 12 buy signals and 28 sell signals. That suggests some downside ahead but so far in the pre market, the bulls are in charge. I liked the setups on two of the charts. One was a short xxxx (subscribers only). The other was a long, xxxx. I’ll add those to the list as of Monday’s opening prices. Charts below.

Get the newest pick and review charts of existing picks in today’s report. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

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Closer Every Day

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Cycle time and price projections suggest that the market is getting close to a high. But it’s not there yet. The 13 week cycle high is ideally due around xxxxxx (in subscriber report), with a projection of xxxx (in subscriber report). The 6 month cycle still seems to be in trending mode with a new projection of xxxx. The 10-12 month cycle is ideally due to top out within x weeks, with a new projection of xxxx.

On the third rail chart the market continues rising within multiple channels. Short term channel support rises from 4370 to 4405 this week. Additional multiple support lines rising from around 4360 and 4330 should contain any pullback. Major trend support is around xxxx (in subscriber report). Only if all of those are broken could is a significant reversal possible.

On the weekly chart, a possible target of this move is now at xxxx. The market would now need to conclusively break xxxx to signal a reversal.

Long term cycle projections point to xxxx with highs due between xxxx and xxxx.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 would need to end August below xxxx to signal a potential reversal of the uptrend. If the SPX clears long term trend resistance around 4500, the target would rise to xxxx in August.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures remain bullish, despite Friday’s pullback.

The chart picks report will be posted on Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

 

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Chart Picks – Dipping Two Toes in the Meat Grinder

The meat grinder tore up my picks last week, wiping out more than a month’s worth of hard won average gains. Attempting swing trades of expected duration of 3-4 weeks in a weakly trending market with lots of chop, is virtually a fool’s errand at this point. Day trading, or buy and hold, has worked a lot better lately. C’est la vie. C’est la marche.

History tells us that conditions in force tend to remain in force until they don’t. It’s market inertia. So I approach my short term picks at this point with high skepticism. I continue to dip a toe in the water with a pick here and, but no more than that, until I see signs of good performance. This week I saw two charts that I liked enough to add to the list. Both were in the agricultural sector.

This Friday’s screens were bullish with 55 buy signals and 19 sell signals. That suggests more upside ahead.

Get the newest pick and review charts of existing picks in today’s report. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

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Prices Show Us Not to Argue with Mother Market

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

All swing cycles are back in gear but only one of them has a projection. Meanwhile, we know that one major cycle is due to top out at any time between now and September. We’re on the alert for the signs from the indicators for that cycle (shown in subscriber report).

The market closed Friday at trend resistance on the third rail chart. That resistance starts the week at 4433 and rises to 4455. Clearing that line would indicate acceleration. Massive trend support lies between 4270 and 4335. That would need to be broken to signal reversal.

On the weekly chart, the SPX had a false breakdown from the uptrend line off the October 2020 low. The market would now need to conclusively break 4230 to signal a reversal on this chart. Trend resistance and a possible target of this move is now at xxxx (in subscriber report).

Long term cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx (subscriber report) with highs due between xxxx and xxxx.

On the monthly chart, if the SPX clears long term trend resistance at 4410, the next target in July would be xxxx. In August, that would rise to xxxx (subscriber report).

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures reversed their recent weakness. They have sent misleading signals in recent weeks. Price trends themselves must always be the finally arbiter of any trend analysis.

The chart picks report will be posted on Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

 

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.