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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Stock Market Gets Knocked Down But Still Packs Punch

Lee Adler

Cycles are mixed, with all shorter cycles in down phases that are still flat, but could grow teeth. The longer term structures and outlook stay bullish.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Get ’em While They’re Hot – Swing Trade Picks For Week of April 26, 2021

Lee Adler

I took some time off from trading this week, which was probably a good thing, considering the whippiness and suddenness of the changes of direction. I ran screens during the week, but did not look at them. For the week there were 115 buy signals and 137 sell signals. The picks below are from the screen I ran from Friday’s data.

Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. Then I apply technical filters looking for short term cycle buy and sell signals near key longer period cycle support ranges. This typically results in between 30 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊

Last week was a rough ride with all the whipsaws. 5 stops got clipped. The chart pick list had an average gain of 3.5% with an average holding period of 13 calendar days.

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Space Needle Construction Under Way

Lee Adler

Is the stock market constructing a space needle pattern on the charts? Cycles remain in gear to the upside for all time frames from 4 weeks to 10-12 months. We have updated price projections for the tops projected for early this summer. But in the short run, look for more foundation building. Don’t let that trick you into thinking that it’s something that it isn’t.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Picks For Week of April 19, 2021

Lee Adler

Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. This typically results in between 15 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊

The list had an average gain of 6.0% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days last week. It was well positioned to ride the rally as all of the picks were buys. There were no shorts.

This table below shows how that compares with the previous 6 weeks. It was the best performance over this period.

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This Monster is Poised to Explode

Lee Adler

The S&P has now broken through a long term uptrend line that dates from the 2014 peak.

All intermediate and short cycles remain in gear to the upside. There are updated projections on the 13 week cycle and 10-12 month cycle. They are eyepopping for bulls, and eye watering for bears.

The third rail chart is in a meltup. This report shows you its parameters.

Cycle screening measures continue to confirm the uptrend. They show no sign of reversal.

The chart pick list had an average gain of 3.3% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days (1.6 weeks) last week. I have adjusted trailing stop takeout prices for this week.

The current screen from charts as of April 9, had 41 total signals with 17 bullish signals against 24 bearish signals. I chose 4 of the buys to add to the chart picks this week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Technical Trader Special Report- This Week’s Swing Trade Picks

Lee Adler

Oh What a Tangled Web We Weave When First We Update a Spreadsheet from Fed Data

I got into a bit of a pickle this weekend when updating my Primary Dealer position and Financing charts. The spreadsheets that I use to create them are massive aggregations of multiple New York Fed data tables. I need to create dozens of linked tables to collect and aggregate that data into two coherent story telling charts.

I made one small change in one of the two workbooks by adding a couple lines to accommodate an extra week of data. Simple, right? That caused a series of cascading errors in the two linked worksheets. The New York Fed doesn’t make it easy, to aggregate this data. In fact, they make it nearly impossible, which is probably why I’m the only one crazy enough to try this at home.

I didn’t realize the error until I was finished and looked at the chart. It was trash. It was all trash.

I spent 3 hours, until midnight last night, rebuilding all of it, after spending 3 hours building it. So I don’t have a finished report on that data as I had intended, nor was I able to get to the technical report on Sunday night as I usually do.

That’s my sob story excuse for presenting the Technical Trader report for you in two parts this morning, which may be a better way to do it anyway. 😀 First, I’ll start with the chart picks, herein. I’ll get the technical market overview out to you well before New York opens.

If I’m lucky, I’ll get that Primary Dealer report out to Liquidity Trader Money Trends subscribers this morning also.

Thanks for your commiseration and support!

Lee

And now, on with the show.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

As a thanks to Liquidity Trader Money Trends subscribers for your patience, here’s a link for you to download this report, if you’re interested.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Stock Market Says, Here Comes the Judge, All Rise

Lee Adler

The 6 month cycle up phase reasserted itself last week.

All of the short term cycles up to 13 weeks resychronized with the 6 month cycle upturn. Cycle projections rose across the short term and intermediate spectrum. I also ran the regular quarterly update of long term projections. They also rose.

I should point out that those long term projections first pointed toward the market reaching 3900 last July, and pointing to 4000 in October, when the S&P was at 3300. We should not take the fact lightly that they now point higher still.

The swing trade chart picks list showed a small gain of 1.2% on average with an average holding period of just 4 days, as all but one pick, were new. This weekend I chose 4 new picks which appeared to have good potential for a decent sized swing move. All were buys.

The current screen had an impressive 75 bullish signals against just 8 bearish signals. But that’s less than half of last weekend’s buy signals. This diminution is normal as a trend progresses. The current numbers are still relatively large, suggesting that we remain in the early stages of the move.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Play Ball! Stock Market Swings For the Fences in Season Opener

Lee Adler

Friday’s rally appears to support that we’re in the early days of a 6 month cycle up phase. We have been expecting it in this time window.  Ditto for the 10-12 month cycle, which has been trending anyway. Those two cycles should now be in gear to the upside for a few months. This would normally cause shorter cycles to resync from that low, and also to have extended uplegs.

This weekend’s screens of some 9000 listed stocks generated a whopping 163 short term signals from key levels. An equally impressive 155 were on the buy side. Furthermore, three of the sell signals were on inverse ETFs. Therefore 158 signals were bullish. Only 5 were bearish. This suggests a big turn with lots of thrust. It’s consistent with a 6 month cycle upturn.

But I was underwhelmed when I viewed those charts. Most were ambiguous. This doesn’t give me enough to conclude that we’re going to have a sustained power move.

From my visual review, I chose 8 charts which appeared to have good potential for a decent sized swing move. All were buys. If this works out as it should, we’ll get 2 or 3 runners from this group while the rest have small gains or small losses.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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A Little Pullback with Big Implications

Lee Adler

The upward path of prices got slammed at midweek, just as the S&P 500 had crossed the centerlines of a couple of channels. The index then fell to below the long-term channel from last year’s low. So this little pullback turns out to be very, very significant. It has led the SPX to a major inflection point.

So now we wait for a signal on what the market will do about it. I have added a few chart picks to take advantage, Most of them are on the sell side. It’s been a while since there have been more short picks than longs.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Rally Is Set to Accelerate if These Benchmarks Trigger

Lee Adler

Last week I wrote that the 6 month cycle low setup was forming. Was this rally the beginning of the up phase? While we don’t have 6 month cycle indicator confirmation yet, my best guess is that it was the beginning of the upturn in the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles. And there are signs of potential acceleration. This report shows you the levels that would signal another upsurge, along with the targets for the move, and stock charts that look favorably positioned to participate and potentially outperform.

Chart picks did well last week. With a dozen picks last Monday, all on the buy side, the list was well positioned to take advantage of the rally. Including the short sale that was closed with a loss on Monday’s open, the list showed an average gain of 4.7%, assuming 100% cash basis, no margin or options, with an average holding period of 10 calendar days, as of Monday, March 15.

I am adding 4 new picks, all buys, as of Monday’s open.

The screens generated 27 charts with the kinds of signals I look for. 16 of those were buys. One of the sells was an inverse ETF. Therefore 17 of the 27 signals were bullish. This is somewhat less than each day for the previous week, when buys were running 90-95% of the screen results.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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